THURSDAY BLOG: MORE SNOW AND COLD COMING
GOOD THURSDAY MORNING
Yesterday went pretty much according to plan although a nearly stationary snow squall lead to some "bonus" accumulations overnight around and just south of I-80. Snow totals vary quite a bit, depending on if you got a prolonged squall or not.On to today! It will be a cold but fairly uneventful day. Some flurries can visit at times. Not much on the 15 hour simulated radar:
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT: MORE SNOW
The mother lode of arctic air will head our way tomorrow and the front will be accompanied by another round of snow showers tomorrow afternoon through Saturday.
Snow totals may be similar to what we just got yesterday and last night. Will put out an official forecast map this afternoon but it looks like something like 2-4" in many places with perhaps 4-6" in our northern viewing area.This is easily the coldest air mass of the winter. Check out the wind chills in SE Canada around Toronto Saturday morning. Dangerous stuff.
Around here it won'[t be that bad but still wind chills can be -10 to -15 early Saturday.
Actual temperatures: no higher than 10 Saturday.
MORE SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK?
It's looking more and more likely that a light snowfall will occur Sunday night into Monday as a warm front tracks across the region. Probably something like 1-3".
Then, an area of low pressure should form somewhere across the southeast and track northeast. The question is...what's the track? Far enough west and we could get in on accumulating snow on Tuesday. Too fast east and it is a miss for us. This is a low confidence forecast this point......although I am currently leaning toward either 1) a miss or 2) a glancing blow with minor accumulations.GFS model depiction of Tuesday:
That suggests a "miss". But experienced forecasters know that in these types of situations several days out, we must look at all the information available including the "ensembles". These are different simulations of the same model, each with slightly different information "baked in". Most of the GFS ensemble members have a miss for us:
That said, other modeling including the European ensemble say.....be careful. A farther west track is on the table. So...bottom line....there's a chance for snow but confidence is low.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video is of course going to take a thorough look at tomorrow/Saturday's snow and cold as well as the latest on next week's threat. It'll be another packed video! Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
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As the arctic front cruises east today, snow showers and squalls will get going. The most frequent activity looks to be this afternoon and evening. Here's a 24-hour future radar taking us through early tomorrow morning:
There is a small chance for thunder and lightning too.
Note: With snow squalls there can be "surprises" in some spots in the 1-3" zone. Can some place get 4" or so if the most intense squall moves overhead? Sure. But 1-3" will be a good "general rule".
Notice that band of darker blue that is shown to move through around sunset.Temperatures will not move much today, staying between 32-35 just about all day and then dropping after sunset:
How much snow? I think a general 1-3" can accumulate tonight through Wednesday night. Some higher totals are possible closer to the snowbelt in northern Trumbull and Mercer.Computer model plumes:
The National Weather Service has a Lake Effect Snow Watch out for the snow belt counties.
The wind chills are likely to be between zero and -5 by daybreak Thursday. Probably not enough for school adjustments, but we shall see.
Friday morning's wind chills will be in the same ballpark.
This could result in a general couple/few inches of new accumulation.The coldest weather of the whole winter will occur this weekend. Temperatures Saturday are likely to struggle to reach 10 and 6-7 degrees may about do it.Wind chills will be WAY below zero all day Saturday.
Sunday will not be as harsh but still quite cold with highs 15-20. At least there will be some sun as high pressure moves overhead.
While we can't rule out some wet snowflakes trying to mix in this afternoon, this will mainly be rain. The chance for some wet snow will increase after sunset as temperatures cool.
NWS snow forecast through Wednesday evening shows the possibility of a handful of inches in total, especially in the northern viewing area.
iOS users: It should be in the App Store in 4-9 days.Well yesterday's 62 was a record for that date, smashing the old record of 55. How does it compare to all-time February warmth? 62 is not that high on the list, actually. The warmest February day on record in Youngstown occurred in 2000.
This morning we have a sea of clouds and that will keep temperatures from moving much all day.
Some passing flurries will be a possibility. 15 hour futurecast:
Rain and snow showers on Monday as we cool off.
The rest of the week will feature NO big storms but plenty of cold, gusty northwest winds....snow showers and flurries....and mostly minor accumulations. It is possible that some places will end up with a few inches on the ground by the end of the week.
The rain has pushed east this morning and we await the dry slot of this system. When that works in this afternoon, temperatures will blast off into record territory. Today's record of 55 is packing it's bags.
The wind will become more of a factor as well, especially when we get some sunshine. There could be some gusts to 40 mph or so.
While no big storms are likely, we can get "nickled and dimed" by flurries and snow showers at times next week.
As you can see, the cold is not likely to last long. The pattern during the final 10-12 days of February does NOT look like one that will support much cold.
Meanwhile, a major storm system is producing heavy snow and lots of wind in the middle of the country:
As this comes east, it will draw Gulf moisture northward and a Spring-like outbreak of severe weather is likely by this evening across the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys.
Rain totals will average 0.50"-0.75" with some places perhaps getting an inch.
Temperatures will spike into record territory after the rain tomorrow. The record is 55 but we think readings will make it into the lower 60s!
Friday will be sunnier and a bit warmer.
Notice, the biggest one-day snow was a paltry 2.6" on the 12th. The coldest temperature was 5 degrees, reached 3 times. Overall a pretty tame month....as expected. Our winter forecast called for a warm December, an average January and a somewhat colder than average February. Let's see if we will make it 3 for 3 this month.
In the wake of that front, we expect temperatures to barely move today with variable clouds. It should be brighter later in the day as compared to now.
But we will be on the warm side. So temperatures will rebound nicely Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs can be near 50 or so south of the warm front.
A severe weather outbreak is likely across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
It's possible that we hear thunder in eastern OH and western PA early Wednesday morning but we are not expecting severe weather.
Temperatures will fall during the daylight hours Wednesday and this mild pattern will come to an end.
No significant weather is expected through Super Bowl Sunday.
Will it last?? I does not look likely right now. That cold shot should push out after a few days. Winter has a hard time "locking in" in strong El Ninos and this year is no exception.Remember last February?
This February will be NOTHING like that.
The cold front associated with this system will pivot across the Valley this evening. This can bring a more substantial band of snow. While we are not looking for a big accumulation, the impacts could be notable since it is coming toward the tail end of rush hour.15 hour futurecast (notice the green....there might actually be some rain at the start of this):
Snow showers will linger into the night with some lake-enhancement as well. Snow amounts will be very modest...a coating to at most an inch in most of the area. Perhaps 2 inches in areas likely to get a little lake-enhancement.Models (for SE Trumbull i.e. the airport):
NWS snow forecast:
Pretty similar to our snow map issued last night:
A major snow storm will impact the middle of the country. This will be more of a spring-style storm with heavy snow on the cold side and severe weather in the warm sector.Snow:
Severe weather possible Tuesday into Tuesday night as far north as the Ohio River:
There might be thunder here Tuesday night and early Wednesday as the strong cold front approaches.
The highest chance for getting an inch or more of snow will be in the northern half of our viewing area. NWS snow forecast:
Balmy weather is likely through midweek.
Meanwhile, a doozy of a winter storm will make its way through the Plains states and blizzard conditions will be possible early next week in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. Nice dumping of snow:
This system will drag a lot of moisture northward and will likely cause some springlike severe weather in parts of the Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. The moisture content of the atmosphere (or "precipitable water") will be quite high for early February.
It's VERY mild this morning! But colder air is not too far to the west and temperatures will fall this afternoon.
Any more rain today? Not much....maybe a sprinkle. There might be a late-day flurry. 15 hour futurecast:
The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 outlook shoes this trend nicely as well.
There will be a major winter storm in the middle of the country early next week. This will draw the mild air north as it moves across the country but eventually we will get back to more typical early February weather.
Today will be a pretty nice January day! With a mix of sun and clouds temperatures will get up to about 40 this afternoon. Not a bad day to wash the car.
A cold front is on the way, however. Temperatures will bottom out early tonight and then rise overnight as the front approaches. Rain showers will dampen some places late tonight and early tomorrow.
Temperatures will fall during the midday and afternoon tomorrow and there might be a sprinkle or flurry in the afternoon.
Thursday looks benign and then the next disturbance could bring a few snowflakes on Friday.
The start of February is likely to be mild in much of the country. Does it stay that way all month? The climate models say yes but I'm not ready to buy that idea just yet. Stay tuned for our February forecast late this week.
Today will be an uneventful day with clouds and limited sun along with cold temperatures. There can be a passing flurry.
In our viewing area, there might be a little snow in the air Friday night and there might even be a coating up to around Rt 224 but the only place that can see an inch or so is in far southern Columbiana County. You won't have to travel all that far to find accumulating snow. Pittsburgh can see a couple/few inches with MUCH more south and east of there.Look at this NWS snow forecast, centered on Virginia. Wow!
This will shut down many cities for the whole weekend. Especially Washington and Baltimore.
The storm will produce problems with ice in the Carolinas, Kentucky and Tennessee.
Our weekend weather will be benign with some sunshine and a slow warming trend.
A shot of somewhat cooler air will follow.
Climate models still showing a mild February, in stark contrast to last February, the coldest on record.
Snow totals can reach 2 feet along the I-81 corridor in Virginia and the mountains of West Virginia.
Have air travel plans Friday-Saturday? Be prepared for trouble, even if you are not flying east. The airports in DC, Baltimore, Philly and NYC are likely to have loads of problems and some may even close. This will cause a ripple effect nationwide.
Highs today near 20.
On to the storm.
This is important. Why? A couple of reasons. Our computer models are fed information from weather balloons that are launched over LAND, so when a system is over the ocean it is not being sampled very well. When this system gets over the US tonight and tomorrow morning, the models will have more information and should therefore have a better handle on it. Secondly, this system will interact with the Rocky Mountains and when it emerges on the other side it may look a lot different than it does now.With the information available now (as flawed as it may be), here's what we think.
We think that accumulating snow is most likely south and east of Youngstown. The heaviest snow is likely to be south and east of Pittsburgh.The NWS odds of at least 2-3 inches of snow seem reasonable to me at this point.
We are confident that if we see precipitation it will be all snow and not a mix.
A range of 0-20 or 30% for our area.
Notice how the air mass modifies coming across the unfrozen Great Lakes. Western Michigan is 20-25 degrees warmer than much of Wisconsin.Meanwhile, lake-effect snow is ongoing across the snow belt. Most of this will stay in the primary snow belt through tomorrow. Only minor additional accumulations can be expected in the northern part of the WFMJ viewing area.
I would expect an inch to perhaps 2 inches of fluffy snow out of this.
Our confidence on the "big picture" is pretty good this far out.
Bullet points for our area: *Some* snow is likely Friday into Friday night and perhaps Saturday morning* A BIG storm is unlikely.*The storm track would promote all snow with no concerns for mixed precipitation*The heaviest snow amounts are most likely in SE part of viewing area but that could still only be a few inches. Much higher totals seem likely south and east of Pittsburgh.The storm is likely to have a HUGE impact on air travel across the country since major hubs such as DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia and NYC could face enormous delays and even closures.
Snow showers are most likely with this front after 2pm. The snow showers can be briefly intense, lowering visibility and slowing travel. They will also be accompanied by gusty winds.By mid-evening Sunday, up to an inch or so of snow is possible.
A Lake-Effect Snow Watch is up for the snow belt.
The next cold front will approach late in the day and some rain showers are likely for the evening and part of the overnight hours.
The true arctic cold front will arrive on Sunday. This will be accompanied by a period of snow showers and gusty winds. There might be a fresh coating to an inch or so of snow on Sunday. 
CONNECT: 
Lake-effect snow will diminish today and the region will be left with a tranquil, cold day.
Temperatures will keep rising tonight.
There will be a bit more snow after that. Snow amounts will be modest. The models are in fair agreement, showing about an inch:
We think a fresh coating is likely just about everywhere and most places will check in with around an inch of fresh powder.
But the warm up will be brief. Arctic air will charge in behind that system and temperatures will probably hold steady or fall on Saturday. Snow showers are likely. Any accumulations would likely be very minor.
Remember how today feels because Sunday and early next week will feel very similar.
CONNECT: