Winter Review & The Spring 2024 Forecast

Winter 2023-2024: Another Absolute Dud

Meteorological Winter is the months of December, January and February…the three coldest months of the year. And yet: the season was anything but “cold”. We had a quite cold 8 day stretch in January annnnnd…well that’s pretty much it.

December was the 2nd warmest on record…February in the top 5 warmest on record. January was 3.7 degrees warmer-than-average and it was the MOST “normal” month of the three.

All in all, this will go into the record books as the 2nd warmest winter season on record here. Was that expected? No, but perhaps it should have been.

The Winter Forecast

Every year, I issue a winter forecast around the first week of November. Seasonal forecasts are much different than the daily, run-of-the-mill forecasts that meteorologists come up with every day. Seasonal forecasting involves looking at lots of historical data to find “analogs” for the upcoming season. Our list of analogs this year was comprised of El Nino years that had other similarities to this year (I’ll spare you all the details). The common theme among the analogs: a warm December, a cold February. January would be somewhere in between.

The thing is: the forecast was doing well! Until late January, that is. Let’s see how we did.

December forecast and verification:

January forecast and verification:

Pretty happy with how those turned out. But, when the mid-January cold snap ended, a “blow torch” pattern evolved and the February forecast was ugly.

Oops. So what happened?

I think forecasters (myself included) were tripped up by the state of the oceans, especially the Pacific. El Nino was going to be strong, but because nearly the ENTIRE Pacific is super warm, the temperature difference between the ENSO region (where El Nino is) and the other areas would be lower than El Ninos of the past. The conventional wisdom was that El Nino, while strong, would not necessarily behave like a strong El Nino.

Turns out, it pretty much did. Had the February forecast relied on analogs that included just the strong to very strong El Ninos, it would have a been a good forecast. Check out the Februarys of the most recent strong Ninos:

Looks very similar to February 2024.

Here were the percentage chances we gave for outcomes this winter.

So, the grades for the forecast:

Snow is sort of an “incomplete” forecast as we are not done with it yetm but of course snow amounts are not only below average…but WAY below average.

On To Spring! What To Expect

Here’s what we know: Spring (March-April-May) will get off to a warm start. The first 2 weeks of March are likely to be a far amount warmer-than-average.

Beyond that? Maybe a horse of a different color. Same as with the winter forecast, we will rely on “analogs” as the foundation of our seasonal forecast. This time we are mainly interested in years in which we had a rapidly fading El Nino during the spring season. A couple of the analogs were not very strong El Ninos (like this year’s), but did have the negative phase of the “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” like we do now.

Not a very “cool” looking map, but maybe not as warm looking as you would expect given the warm start to the season. That’s because April and especially May have a cooler look:

What about rain? Spring is of course, an important time of the year for planting. Temperatures are important, but the amount of rain we see during this 3 month stretch can set the tenor of the growing season.

I am concerned about a drier than average Spring. The analogs contain a fairly stout “not wet” signal:

In the years that make up that composite, a couple of them were quite dry. Only one (2020) was fairly wet in our area.

The top meter of our soil is already on the dry side in late February:

So overall here’s my summary for Spring:

1) A warm start in March; cooler weather fairly likely during the 2nd half of month

2) April can go either way temperature wise

3) May is somewhat likely to be the coolest month compared to average

4) There are dry risks in this forecast; a dry spring could be trouble given the early signals we have for summer (more on that below)

5) A later-than-average frost and freeze is a risk this year

Speaking of freeze risks, here are the stats for the last freeze (32) and hard freeze (below 30) of the season for the YNG airport. There can be localized variations for this kind of thing…sheltered valleys can have a final 32 degree reading well after the airport does.

How About Summer??

I usually say “one season at a time” but we’ll speculate briefly on summer (June-July-August). The tenor of Summer 2024 will likely be governed by how fast El Nino gives way to La Nina (which seems likely). If La Nina comes on hot and heavy by early summer, that increases the dry risks for the heart of growing season. That would not be great if we have ready been through a dry spring.

Model depiction of El Nino giving way to La Nina:

Temperature wise, it is a good bet that we will have a hotter summer than 2023. It’s on the table that it is significantly hotter. The analogs have a pretty toasty signal:

Precipitation forecasting during “thunderstorm season” is tricky business as the next neighborhood over can see 4” from a storm that brings you nothing. But overall there is a dry signal for our region (how dry, as mentioned above, probably depends on the Nino-Nina transition).

It can also be a summer than, while not wet overall, does have higher-than-average chances for severe weather. We’ll focus much more on the summer season later in spring.

THE 2023-2024 WINTER FORECAST: A RETURN TO FORM?

FIRST, A QUICK REVIEW OF LAST WINTER

The forecast stunk. Let’s just get that out of the way up front. There are meteorological reasons why the 2022-2023 forecast went sideways for me and well, nearly everyone else. You can read a brief summary here:

On To Spring! Review Of Putrid Winter Forecast & A Look Ahead — Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm's Blog (ericwfmj.com)

Forecasts busts like last year are going to happen sometimes when we are trying to predict weather trends on a seasonal scale. It’s just the nature of the beast! But, lessons are learned and we move on to the next challenge.

Just a reminder about the time period we refer to in these winter outlooks. We define “winter” as “meteorological winter”, or December-February. When it comes to snow, we are talking first flake to last flake (usually October-April). That said, here’s last year’s numbers…which were pretty crazy.

22.8” is a shockingly low number for the Youngstown-Warren Airport in Trumbull County. There is a fair amount of our television viewing area that had single digits/lower teens snow totals for the season.

Average snowfall for our region:

2022-2023 was a remarkably snow-free winter and also very mild…and mild winters have been the rule since 2015-2016, which was a winter featuring a “super” El Nino. The winter of 2017-2018 was just about average, but every other winter since 2015 has been on the mild side.

HOW DO WE MAKE THESE FORECASTS?

A seasonal forecast is much different than the standard 7-day forecast you see us do on TV and online every day. A seasonal forecast is all about forecasting temperatures and precipitation compared to average, general trends, etc. Despite what you may find in the Farmer’s Almanac, it’s not possible to say there will be a snowstorm on February 11th months in advance.

To formulate a long-term outlook, we rely on “analogs”, past years that had a lot of similarities to the state of the atmosphere and oceans this year heading into winter. We use long-range computer models, carefully, and with a lot of caveats and grains of salt. Lastly, experience and intuition are important. I’ve learned a LOT over the last several years and tried to catalog all the successes and failures.

This is hard business. Seasonal forecasting can also be a high-stakes endeavor. There are meteorologists in the private sector who rarely, or never, worry about what’s going to happen 3 days from now and instead focus on long-range outlooks. Utility companies, energy traders, etc. rely on these forecasts to make decisions in which LOTS of money is on the line.

FACTORS IN THIS YEAR’S FORECAST

The winter 2023-2024 forecast is a somewhat different beast than the last few years. Why? Well a few reasons, but the main one is the presence of EL NINO in the Pacific Ocean. This is the first stout El Nino we have had since 2015-2016 and comes on the heals of the opposite phase, LA NINA, for the last few years.

Simply put, El Nino is the warming of the waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nino is the opposite (cooling instead of warming).

Ok, well, so what? What does warm water in the Pacific have to do with how much snow we will see this winter?

The ocean and atmosphere play together in the same sandbox. The ocean can influence the behavior of the atmosphere and vice versa. A warm tongue of water in the Pacific can alter atmospheric patterns, storm tracks, etc. So, El Nino is important, but it’s not at all cut and dry. We have to factor in:

1) The strength of El Nino. This year’s El Nino is strong and still strengthening, but as outlined below, it may not “behave” quite like a strong El Nino.

2) The location of the warmest waters in the El Nino zone. If the warmest waters are near South America, that favors a warm winter in the eastern US. If it is a “central based” Nino, that tends to favor a colder outcome for us. This year has been east-based so far, but may eventually become more “basin-wide” or a hybrid of central and east-based.

3) How much does El Nino “stand out” from the rest of the world’s oceans this time? Is this “zone” MUCH warmer than the surrounding waters, or not so much?

OTHER OCEANIC FACTORS

The Alphabet Soup on the image above shows the other major oceanic oscillations that are important this year. We won’t go too far into the deep end here, but a quick primer on what this stuff is and why it’s important:

1) “+IOD” is the positive phase of the “Indian Ocean Dipole”. This basically means that there is cool water in the eastern Indian Ocean. This has big implications for Australia (bad drought) but it can also affect weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean enough that it’s important for the U.S., particularly when it’s as strong as it is now. A very positive IOD greatly increases the odds of a mild start to winter in much of the US. The last time we had a strong +IOD was in 2019 (although there was no El Nino accompanying it, which is pretty unusual) and December looked like this:

2) The “-PDO” is in the negative phase of the Pacific-Decadal Oscillation. This is marked by a ring of relatively cool water in the eastern Pacific and warmer waters in the west/central Pacific. The presence of a -PDO, particularly a strong one like we have had recently, is rather usual during El Nino and is likely a “hangover” from 3 straight years of La Nina conditions.

3) The “+AMO” is the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. This signifies the presence of very warm waters in much of the Atlantic Basin.

WEIRD EL NINO?

This season’s forecast is largely based on the premise that, while we have a pretty strong El Nino, it’s overall influence on the atmosphere may be neutered somewhat. Why?

1) The strong -PDO

2) The world’s oceans, as a whole, are incredibly warm right now. This makes the El Nino STAND OUT less. It’s like El Nino is the big, loud guy at the party who usually dominates things, but this time the party is super crowded and the music is unusually loud. He just can’t stand out as much.

EL NINO AND WINTER WEATHER HISTORY IN OUR AREA

Keeping in mind all the things discussed above, what have our winters been like during recent El Nino episodes? On balance, fairly cold and snowy!

But here’s where I jump in and remind everyone that the STRENGTH of El Nino is important. On the above list, only 2015-2016 was strong…and you can see what a different outcome we had. Want cold and snow? You want a winter with a weak to moderate El Nino:

ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS

So far, we have focused on what’s going on in the oceans. What non-oceanic factors are important this year?

Potentially favorable setup for a weakened polar vortex

-Perhaps counterintuitively, a weakened polar vortex can increase the frequency in which bitterly cold air descends southward into the mid-latitudes (where we are!). A strong vortex usually stays put over the North Pole and keeps the really cold stuff locked up there. So why might this winter bring higher odds of a weakened vortex? Bear with me, this gets pretty nerdy:

-Research has shown that when a belt of wind high in the stratosphere are blowing in certain direction (nerds: it’s the negative phase of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation), especially during a part of the 11-year solar cycle in which sunspot activity is increasing (see image), a weakened polar vortex can occur more frequently.

Hunga Tonga volcano?

-So I just outlined an argument for a weaker polar vortex at times this winter. There’s also an argument to be made for a STRONGER vortex. Why? An underwater volcano eruption nearly 2 years ago. Say what?

-Hunga Tonga erupted in the western Pacific in January 2022. Since it was an under water event, by and large, it shot much more water vapor than sulfur into the air. In fact, the amount of water…and the height of the water was INCREDIBLE. We are talking way up into the stratosphere. Now that water vapor, initially swirling over the southern hemisphere, is working through the northern hemisphere. It’s been speculated that the presence of this abnormal amount of water vapor will cool the stratosphere and lead to a STONGER polar vortex in the northern hemisphere winter. But there is LOW CONFIDENCE in this idea. It’ll be very interesting to see what happened in a few months. This image shows the concentration of water vapor at high altitudes over the arctic region:

OK, so let’s quickly summarize before we get to the forecast:

1) We have a strong El Nino this winter, although it’s impacts on weather patterns may resemble a weaker El Nino event.

2) Odds may favor a weaker polar vortex, but confidence is on the lower end as of this writing.

THE ANALOGS

Based on many of the factors listed above, here’s my list of top “analogs” for this season. Keep in mind, there is no “perfect” analog. History never repeats itself exactly. 2009-2010 looks like a very good analog this year and it was a rather cold and snowy winter here. Does that mean this year will be another 2009-2010? Not at all. But of course it’s possible that the winter will be more LIKE that season than some of the warmest and least snowy analogs.

More weight was put on the analogs that seem to match this year’s conditions the best. A resulting national map looks like this for December-February temperatures:

Precipitation:

here are two very common themes among those analog years:

1) A mild/warm December

A cold February

Among the analogs, January is more of a mixed bag…some mild, some cold.

COMPUTER MODELS

There’s far too many seasonal computer models to show in this post, but I’ll show the most recent Canadian and European season guidance (temperatures):

Some differences, but some overall similarities: a warm winter for Canada, cooler in the southern US. Pretty typical of El Nino overall. Much of the modeling does agree with the analog composite idea of a mild December and cold February in the East, increasing our confidence that that is the correct idea.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

The overall idea I have for this winter is that it will almost be like 2 separate seasons. December may be, at least, partially, just “extended October/November”. It’s possible that “flavor” will continue into part of January. But I am bullish on the back half of winter being much colder and stormier that last year (that won’t be asking much) and many of our recent winters.

WHAT CAN GO WRONG?

Lots. As stated above, this is hard and complicated!

-The water vapor high in the atmosphere keeps the polar vortex very strong, limiting chances for true cold later in winter.

-Climate change/very warm global oceans conspire to “ruin” every “borderline” situation. In other words, storm tracks that used to give us snow more often instead produce rain/wintry mixes more often.

-The strong El Nino is neutered by the overall Pacific “base state” (La Nina hangover) so much that the winter reverts to a La Nina-flavor….limiting chances for a big back half of the season in the cold/snow department.

All that said, let’s show our cards.

The call is for the winter, as a whole, to be near average to perhaps slightly above average temperature wise. But with the caveat that December may end up quite a bit warmer than average and February quite a bit colder than average. Snow is tricky. Even a cold back half of the season does not guarantee a lot of snow. It can be just cold and dry. Given the likelihood of a balmy December, I lean toward the season being below average…but not by a big margin and, compared to last year it will SEEM snowy.

National map and monthly breakdowns:

Compared to last year:

The “Bottom Line”:

Look for an update to the forecast in about a month, in early December. Thanks for reading!

A Standard Summer, But A Hot Start To Fall

SUMMER 2023: NOT THAT HOT!

Meteorological Summer (June-August) will go into the record books as pretty ho-hum this year. Temperatures and precipitation were both pretty close to average! It was the coolest summer since the middle of last decade, however.

In terms of rainfall, some areas had more than others, but generally the area had between 11-16 inches for the summer. The season started quite dry but finished with a water-logged month of August.

How was our Summer Forecast? Not bad. Here’s where we put the odds of different outcomes:

It ended up being a little warmer and wetter than expected, but not by much.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SEPTEMBER/THE AUTUMN SEASON

You probably know by now that it’s going to get quite hot over the next week. In fact, the pattern looks pretty warm compared to average through at least the first half of the month. This strongly tilts the odds in favor as the month ending up was warmer-than-average. It should also be a notably drier month when compared to August.

90s in early September are not that unusual and we typically have more 90s in September than the other warm season “shoulder’ month, May.

Warm Septembers have become the norm since 2015.

September 1 begins Meteorological Fall…will the whole season be warmer than average? That seems unlikely. Often in Autumns featuring an El Nino in the Pacific, a warm September is followed by a much different pattern in October and November.

The 2023 Summer Forecast

WILL THIS SUMMER BE DIFFERENT THAN RECENT SUMMERS?

In eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, meteorological summer (June-August) has been 1) warm and 2) wet more often than not in recent years. Of course, it gets hot and we have rain every summer. But compared to average, wet summers have outnumbered drier ones…and we haven’t had a legit “cool” summer in nearly a decade.

As noted in the graphic above, it got pretty dry in summer 2022. Our viewing area was never put in the “drought” category, but we spent a fair amount of July and August under the “abnormally dry” designation.

As you may know from our annual winter outlooks, we spend a lot of time looking at ocean water temperatures when constructing these seasonal forecasts. Our focus for this forecast is:

1) The emerging El Nino. We have spent 3 straight years under the influence of La Nina, which is of course the opposite of El Nino. La Nina is not only long gone, but El Nino is coming on hot and heavy. Historically, there have not been many cases where La Nina gives way to El Nino so quickly …so this is a fairly unusual situation.

El Nino is the warming of the waters in the equatorial Pacific. This can impact the jet stream and weather patterns downstream.

2) The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. It’s still in a ““negative” state, where the water is cooler than average off the west coast of North America. A negative PDO does not often occur in concert with an El Nino…and, if it were to stay negative, could counteract some of the typical impact from El Nino. BUT, there are signs the water is warming significantly in this zone. If that trend continues, as it should, El Nino will have more influence on the North American Summer.

3) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or AMO. The Atlantic Ocean is very warm right now, or in the “positive” phase of the AMO. A Positive AMO tends to favor drier conditions during the summer in our region.

MAKING THE FORECAST

So given what is going on in the oceans, we can look back at years that had similar conditions. We compile that data and also have a look at the latest computer model projections to construct a forecast for the season. Here’s what we think are the most likely outcomes:

A somewhat cool or “not that hot” summer is favored this year. Precipitation-wise, it may be on the dry side. It would not be surprising to see a drought designation for at least a portion of the area at times this summer.

We average 8 days with highs of at least 90 degrees per year. This year, I suspect the number will be somewhere between 3-6.

The bottom line? While we may save on electricity/air conditioning bills this summer, gardeners and farmers (and those who want an emerald green lawn) may find that the atmosphere will not provide enough natural water.

On To Spring! Review Of Putrid Winter Forecast & A Look Ahead

In this post we will eulogize the winter 2022-2023 forecast and then never, ever speak of it again.

I am no huge fan of snow….shoveling it, driving in it, etc. So, on one hand I am happy with this season’s exceptional warmth and lack of snow so far. On the other hand, BOY DO I HATE GETTING A FORECAST WRONG. Especially one that involves the kind of hours of research and hard work as the annual winter forecast. I mean, this is the nature of the beast; seasonal forecasts are hard and sometimes you are going to fail spectacularly. But it still stings. We will treat it as a big learning opporunity and move on.

FIRST, THE STATS

No all-time records were set this winter, but we finished near the top in several categories.

It was the 3rd warmest winter on record:

The January/February combo was the 2nd warmest on record.

We are not done counting snowflakes this season but just for December-February….it was one of the least snowy periods on record for our area.

The numbers would have been even more impressive if it were not for the cold snap around Christmas.

So…what happened with the forecast???

First of all, hey we did allow for a 2%-5% chance of this kind of winter happening. Better than zero!

Warm winters are more common in La Ninas rather than El Ninos, but our two warmest were STRONG El Ninos. This was the 3rd warmest winter on record and was a weak La Nina. Unusual.

JANUARY KILLED THE WINTER (AND WINTER FORECAST), MORE SO THAN FEBRUARY

In a winter that takes place during a La Nina, a mild/warm February is not uncommon at all. A ridge of high pressure likes to park over the southeastern US/Carribean and this feature can deflect much of the cold to our west.

Often December/January is the “make or break” period for a winter forecast in a La Nina…and this year January just broke it completely. December featured a vicious cold snap around Christmas but the month as a whole was not particularly cold.

Weather headlines in January included “bomb cyclones” and “atmospheric rivers” impacting the West Coast. If we are talking about that kind of weather out west, chances are we are talking about the opposite in the East.

The seeds of our balmy January were actually planted in December and in ASIA of all places. It’s amazing how connected things can be on this planet of ours. You really do have to look globally to forecast locally. So what happened?

“EAST ASIA MOUNTAIN TORQUE”

Say what. I’ll be honest, this is a term/phenomenon that I had not out much though into until this winter. Basically it goes like this: very strong high pressure presses southward through Asia and air plies up at the very big, very tall Himalayan mountain range. This can actually slow the rotation of the earth a little, and the atmosphere compensates for this by speeding up the wind at the jet stream level. The jet stream over the Pacific elongates and intensifies…which can bring lots of storms to the western US, The continent gets flooded by mild Pacific air and not arctic air. This sequence of events is not that uncommon, but the midwinter event was particularly strong. This, combined with the jet stream being further “goosed” by conditions over the Indian Ocean/southwest Pacific, created a perfect recipe for a prolonged warm stretch during the heart of winter. It doomed many a winter forecast. Unfortunately, a rare event like this is not very predictable.

The rip roaring Pacific jet in January

LOOKING AHEAD TO SPRING

Meteorological Spring is March-May. Will the winter pattern continue into spring? It does not seem that way! The data is looking mighty chilly for mid March and possibly beyond.

The outlook for April and May is less certain, although at this early stage I would not be surprised in at least early April was on the cool side. The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favors warmth, but that might rely heavily on a mild May:

Precipitation wise, wet conditions are favored in spring, I suspect that’ll mainly be the case in the first half of the season.

SUMMER? EL NINO??

La Nina has persisted for 3 straight years now, but it’s time is about up. El Nino is likely to emerge at some point over the summer or early autumn. A sooner onset of El Nino could make for a much different summer than if it waits until later this year.

Recent summers with El Nino:

The signal is not as strong here as in other parts of the country, but the overall “flavor” of El Nino summers is cool-ish.

If we have ENSO-neutral conditions over the summer (neither La Nina or El Nino), the map looks quite a bit different:

Again, not as strong of a signal locally, but definitely some hotter risks in much of the U.S. Precipitation is even more interesting. Rainfall anomalies during El Nino:

A dry signal for us. ENSO neutral looks like a mirror image of that map:

It seems to me that El Nino is likely to come on fairly fast in the coming months, so I lean in the direction of it being on the dry side this summer.

In recent years, the “aridity index”, which factors in recent temperature and precipitation trends, can be a useful tool in early spring when trying to determine where future dry areas are likely to be. Interesting that the aridity index right now looks fairly similar to the composite precipitation map of recent El Nino summers.

Thanks for reading! We’ll do better next year.

2022: The Year In Weather!

A REVIEW OF A COOLER, DRIER 2022

Hey, wait a second…it was a hot summer!

True. And the year will finish as a warmer-than-average year. But it was the coolest year in Youngstown since 2015. Compared to average, January was the most abnormally cold month as we endured a long stretch of sunfreezing temperatures during the second half of the month.

It was not as wet this year. In fact, it got pretty dry over the summer. Not a severe drought locally, but we did string together several drier-than-average months in a row. Overall, it was the driest year since 2009.

The cool weather that settled in during late September and early October, along with the relatively dry weather led to a real nice foliage season this year.

THE BIG WEATHER STORIES

September 4th, Sunday of Labor Day weekend, was quite eventful! Big, slow-moving storms rolled through late in the afternoon and resulted in not-only flash flooding in some places, but an isolated, brief EF0 tornado in Boardman.

#2 on my list just occurred a week ago! A powerful cold front rolled across the area the morning of December 23 and was accompanied by a modest amount of snow. The bigger story was the wind and the wicked cold. Temperatures were below zero all afternoon and the wind chill bottomed out at -31 early Friday evening. Sunday was the coldest Christmas Day since we had the coldest on record in 1983.

Finally, #3 on my list is the struggles we endued during the second half of the winter of 2021-2022. We had a few sizeable snow events and the end of this stretch was marked by a heavy rain event in mid-February. The rain, combined with snowmelt led to serious river flooding throughout the region.

The Mahoning River at Youngstown had one of its highest crests on record.

What are your memories of 2022’s weather happenings?

Happy New Year Everyone!

December Hasn't Been Very Cold So Far...Will That Change?

WAIT, WASN’T DECEMBER SUPPOSED TO BE PRETTY COLD??

When I issued by annual Winter Forecast back on November 17, a key point of emphasis was the idea that this December had a good chance of bucking the trend of recent Decembers, which have been quite mild. We have not had a cold one in 5 years:

As you know if you have read/watched my seasonal forecasts, the forecast is constructed partly through the use of “analogs”, which are seasons in the past that we think have a lot of similarities to the one that is being forecast for. Toward the top of the list of analogs for this winter was 2010-2011, which started with an INSANE December…..it was the snowiest month on record here. Over 50 inches!

In late November of this year, it was becoming obvious that a monster “block” would form over the northern Atlantic. A block basically means a big ridge of high pressure at the jet stream level. This is a feature that can sometimes lead to a clod and stormy period in the eastern US. But this wasn’t just any old block. This was shown my the weather models to be the strongest block in the northern Atlantic since…drum roll…December 2010.

A ha! This idea of a cold December was likely to work out! And while we would never predict such an anomalous month as December 2010, we could begin thinking that this season would probably get off to a reasonably fast start.

Has it? Meh, not really. Temperature anomalies through the first week of the month:

Interesting how much that map, just 1 week into the season, looks like our overall winter temperature forecast:

SO WHY IS THIS DECEMBER TURNING OUT SO DIFFERENT THAN 2010?

First, it’s important to note that there is a LOT of December left. There will be changes and maybe some pretty big ones, before the month is through. But certainly the first 2 weeks of the month will go into the record books as pretty “not cold” in our part of the country.

This is serving as a reminder to everyone in the weather game that we can’t put all our eggs in one basket. A strong block over Greenland does not mean you can pencil in harsh cold over the East. Our weather is greatly influenced by what’s going on to our west, too. And the pattern over the Pacific and western North America has refused to “play ball” so far.

Let’s compare December 2010 and the first half of December 2022. This map shows the main weather features in the mid levels of the atmosphere in early December 2022. Note the strong blocking over the northern Atlantic. BUT, also note 2 other important features. A persistent ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico and a persistent trough over the West Coast.

Now compare that to December 2010. That month, there was also the strong Greenland block, but also no ridge over the northern Gulf, and the trough out west was centered more offshore.

This December, the Gulf ridge is helping to deflect the cold to our west, while that trough on the West Coast is continuing to act like a funnel for the cold coming south out of Canada. In 2010, the lack of a Gulf ridge and the trough out west being centered farther west allowed cold air to charge south and east.

This general pattern is expected to continue for another week-10 days. Then, things can get more interesting.

PATTERN CHANGE?

There is general model agreement that the pattern will become more favorable for cold in the East during the last 2 weeks of December. The magnitude of the cold is certainly in question though. At least it is around here,

In the lead up to Christmas, that ridge over the northern Gulf should break down, allowing for the “damn” to break east of the Rockies. The cold can finally come east. But there are model differences when it comes to the West Coast. If the jet stream buckles and a ridge pops along the coast, the taps can really become wide open for arctic cold to come all the way east. This modeling (the European) from earlier this week has that idea:

Other modeling is less bullish. If a trough lingers out west, cold will continue to infiltrate the Rockies and West Coast and will come east in a more “diluted” i.e. “less cold” form.

Either way, it should get a fair amount colder from around the 16th-19th onward. Model temperature anomalies show coast-to-coast cold in the week before Christmas:

WHITE CHRISTMAS?

Ok, so it is going to get colder. Does this mean a White Christmas? We don’t know that yet. But we can say the odds of snow on the ground on December 25 will almost certainly be higher than at any point over the next week or so.

The 2022-2023 Winter Forecast

BLOG VERSION OF THE 2022-2023 WINTER FORECAST

FIRST, A REVIEW OF WINTER 2021-2022

Winter 2021-2022 got off to a slow start, with the 4th warmest December on record. Natually, with weather that warm, we did not see much snow during the first month of Meteorological Winter. However, Winter did stage a pretty good comeback in January, particularly during the final 10 days or so of the month.

February started with a pretty intense winter storm, but the 2nd half of the month featured some big thaws. March was pretty decent for a change with temperatures ending up a few degrees warmer-than-average.

How did our Winter Forecast do? Pretty well! Although we mistimed the core of the cold by a few weeks; we thought late December would be pretty frigid but Old Man Winter didn’t truly set up shop until the 2nd half of January.

IT’S BEEN A WHILE SINCE WE HAVE HAD A TOUGH WINTER

We had a stretch of nasty winters from 2006-2015 but it’s been pretty tolerable since. We have had 7 straight “mild” winters and 4 consecutive winters with below-average snowfall.

CAN WE DO THIS?

Predicting the future is hard, but compared to other professions/hobbies…we do really well! Just ask anyone who predicts football scores or election results for a living. However, for an all-too-large percentage of the public, weather forecasts are met with skepticism. This is partly our fault, as many very good forecasts are rendered useless by poor communication of the forecast. Anyway, a routine daily weather forecast is hard enough to 1) get right and 2) get heard correctly. Can we expect seasonal forecasts to be any different? It’s an uphill battle. These are much different prognostications than the daily stuff.

But yes, there is skill in this. Some years more than others. While our knowledge of pattern drivers and teleconnections and what not is increasing, the atmosphere (and ocean water) that we are trying to get a handle on are changing fast. It’s harder to rely on the not-too-distant past, when the Earth of 40+ years ago was so different. Thankfully some of the best minds in the weather enterprise are working diligently at solving this problem.

OK, SO HOW DO WE DO THIS?

Because even the best computer models do not have a high amount of skill in predicting how an invisible, unstable fluid sitting on top of a rotating sphere will behave weeks and months into the future, the #1 tool in our tool box is “analogs”. We look at past years that had similar “ingredients” as this year. We often start with El Nino/La Nina. This year is another La Nina winter (more on that later) so we first narrow down the analog years to La Nina years…and go from there.

We use computer models, but cautiously.

A lot of mistakes are made and lessons are learned in this seasonal prediction endeavor. Good forecasters will note when and why things went sideways and strive not too make the same missteps again.

WINTER ALPHABET SOUP

What are the key factors this year? This is a rare “triple dip” La Nina, in other words, the 3rd straight Winter in which La Nina is present in the Pacific (again more on that coming up). Other atmospheric and oceanic drivers are listed below and we’ll investigate them more as we move forward.

STATE OF THE OCEANS

The atmosphere sits atop the surface of the Earth, of which the majority is covered by water. The planet’s oceans have a large influence on the atmosphere (and vice versa). In the below image, your eye is certainly drawn to the big blue area in the Pacific. There’s La Nina. It’s a strip of cooler-than-average water, caused by a strengthening of the trade winds in the equatorial Pacific...which causes cooler water under the surface of the ocean to “upwell”.

Other things to note:

1) The very warm water in the northern Atlantic . This is the “warm” phase of the "Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” or AMO. As the same implies, this oscillation changes from warm to cold and back to warm over the course of large chunks of time. That said, there are instances within these long time frames in which the water in this area warms or cools somewhat. This autumn, the magnitude of the warm AMO has been quite high….September’s value was the highest since the autumn of 2010.

The AMO can play an interesting role in the amount of precipitation our area gets. This includes snow in the winter. Notice the correlation between annual snow totals and the “warm” phase of the AMO taking over around the turn of the century. It stands in stark contrast to the “cold” phase the preceded it, which was a time of less annual snowfall in our area.

Not every year in a warm AMO is going to be snowy (as the last few years have shown) and some of the increase in precipitation in recent times can be attributed to climate change. However, I think there is definitely a notable correlation between AMO phase and long-term precipitation/snowfall trends in our area.

2) The warm tongue in the NW Pacific. This water temperature pattern is the ”cool” or negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO. A negative PDO can help keep the lower 48 states, especially the East, milder than average in Winter.

3) The very warm water north of Australia and the relatively cool water in the western Indian Ocean. The is the “negative” phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD. Yes, we look at ocean temperatures way over there. The IOD phase can be important when we try to suss out trends in the MJO (more 3 letter stuff!), which is important and we will talk about in a bit.

LA NINA/EL NINO AND OUR WINTER

La Nina (and it’s opposite, El Nino) is a very important driver for Northern Hemisphere weather patterns during Winter. It’s not the only driver by any stretch of the imagination, but it has the capability of being the top dog, especially if it is strong.

In our area, an extreme Winter (either warm or cold) seems to happen more frequently with El Nino rather than La NIna…although very warm Winters do happen more frequently with La Nina or neutral conditions (Very strong El Ninos being the exception). Some of our coldest winters on record have occurred in weak El Ninos.

Every La Nina/El Nino is built differently. Not only are some stronger than others, but the location of the coldest(or warmest) water is quite important. An “east based” La Nina, in which the coldest waters are closer to South America, tends to favor a colder outcome in the eastern US than a “central based” La Nina, in which the coldest waters are anchored toward the middle of the Pacific.

Check out these temperature composites. The first are recent years in which La Nina was “east based” and the second shows temperature anomalies for “central based” La Ninas.

Heading into Winter 2022-2023, La Nina is east based, and by a fair margin.

WHAT IS THE QBO?

Let’s step away from the oceans for a minute and talk about the atmosphere, specifically the upper atmosphere. There is a belt of winds above the equator that can impact weather patterns during the Northern Hemisphere Winter. These winds change direction roughly every 14 months. This is the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO. Why do we care? Well it’s been shown that the negative (or easterly) phase of the QBO can open the door to more frequent disruptions of the POLAR VORTEX than the positive (westerly) phase. The POLAR VORTEX is a term that was grabbed by television producers and social media influencers almost a decade ago as a means of describing the cold weather during the back to back winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15. The truth is, the polar vortex always exists in the winter and, perhaps counterintuitively, only impacts our weather significantly when it is WEAK, or disrupted. A strong polar vortex stays above the North Pole and keeps the coldest air up there with it.

The most significant polar vortex disruptions are associated with a “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” event. This is when the air gets real warm (relatively speaking) way up there are like the 100,000 foot level. This intrusion of weird warmth sends the normally orderly polar vortex into fits of rage and it then can REALLY throw a load of very cold air very far to the south.

SSWs CAN occur in the “positive” phase of the QBO, but are much more common when it’s negative. Also, when the do happen in a positive QBO, the cold tends to be directed farther west in the US.

Temperature anomalies in winters (since 1980) with a SSW and a positive QBO:

And during negative QBOs:

This year we have a positive, or westerly QBO. This should decrease the odds of a prolonged intrusion of severe cold air.

MORE ACRONYMS. WHAT’S THE MJO??

Ok, now let’s talk about an oscillation that has both atmospheric and oceanic components. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a semi-permanent cluster of thunderstorms that takes a walk through the Indian Ocean and into the Pacific. It’s so large and such a player that it can muscle the jet stream to do things. Depending on how robust the MJO is, and where it’s located at any given time, the pattern way over here in North America can favor warm or cold weather.

Remember the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) I mentioned above? A negative IOD tends to force the MJO to want to hang out more often over regions of the far eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific that favor eastern US warmth. Tends to.

TOP ANALOGS FOR 2022-2023

Ok, so we just went over some key factors for this winter. East-based, moderate La Nina (that will likely fade as the winter wears on), a positive QBO, a positive AMO, a negative PDO. I tried to find years that best match that combination (also factored in how the Novembers preceding those winters went). Here’s my list of top “analogs”. No analog is perfect! But some are a pretty decent match.

Ok, so let’s examine that list. No crazy warm winters but only a couple of cold ones. The coldest one on the list, 2010-2011 is actually our “worst” winter on record here. So much snow!

There are 4 winters with above-average snow (2 of which were really whoppers) and 5 with below-average snow.

Composite of the analogs…first, temperatures:

And precipitation:

COMPUTER MODELS

Analogs form the backbone of the forecast, but we do consider what the latest long-range weather models have to say. Here’s a sampling of some of the most recent:

3 of the 4 are fairly similar, with the one on the bottom exhibiting a colder look.

SO LET’S GET TO THE FORECAST

We have walked through the various “drivers” this season, how the analogs and some of the computer models look. Let’s get to the forecast! Based on the models and many of our analogs…it should be another mild winter, right? Let’s review:

THINGS THAT CAN TILT THE ODDS IN FAVOR OF A MILD WINTER:

1) The Negative PDO.

2) The Negative IOD, which can force the MJO into “warm” phases more often.

3) The Positive (or westerly) QBO, which lowers the chance for the polar vortex to send the Mother Of Cold Shots in our direction.

4) Recent history. We know that we will have a cold winter eventually, but would you bet on it? The smart money has been on mild temperatures and near/below average snow.

THINGS THAT CAN TILT THE ODDS IN FAVOR OF A COLDER WINTER

1) A stout, east-based La Nina as opposed to a central Pacific-based La Nina.

2) The very warm northern Atlantic, which might lead to more “blocking” there/near Greenland…which can force cold into the East with more frequency (and increase snow totals as well).

3) We are due.

A WILD CARD?

In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano, in the southwest Pacific erupted.

Since this is a “submarine” or underwater volcano, the eruption launched an enormous amount of water vapor high in the atmosphere. Normally, ash from large volcanic eruptions has a cooling effect on the Earth’s climate as it can block incoming solar radiation. Water vapor, however, is more of a greenhouse gas and can “trap” heat (this is why a clear, humid night in the summer is warmer than a clear night with dry air overhead).

Will this excess water vapor high in the atmosphere have an impact on the Northern Hemisphere winter? Will it make for warmer temperatures? Will it strengthen the polar vortex, making it less likely to meander south? Maybe. We don’t really know.

So, here’s what we came up with. A temperature forecast that is 1) warmer than the analog composite and 2) colder than the models.

Factoring in recent trends, the precipitation map (for our area) is wetter looking the analog blend:

The snow forecast won’t make snow lover’s mouths wet, but I do think there is a decent chance of this being the snowiest winter since 2017-2018.

These graphics show the most likely outcomes, but what are the odds of some different outcomes? When it comes to temperatures, I think the odds of winter being near average and somewhat colder than average are roughly equal. The odds of a severely cold winter are low, but higher than the odds of a “blow torch” winter like 2011-2012.

In the snow department, the highest odds are for “near average” amounts, with the next most likely outcome being a snowier-than-average season.

THIS YEAR VS. LAST YEAR

or the most part, it’s just us weather weenies that accurately remember details of many winters past. Most people remember the most recent winter. So how will this year compare to last? Probably a little colder and a little snowier.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Let’s bring this plane in for a landing. Winter 2022-2023 is likely to start fairly mild in early December, with a good chance for colder weather winning out as the month wears on. It should overall be a much colder, more typical December than in 2021. The forecast for the season is tricky with some competing signals. It’s unlikely to be a harsh winter, like 2010-2011 but there’s a reasonable chance it’s perceived as “tough” because of recent history. Lastly, there is a strong signal in the analogs that the season can wind down quickly in late February and into March. Hopefully this isn’t me wishcasting!

STAY TUNED FOR AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IN EARLY DECEMBER!

Reviewing The Winter & Talking Spring

A LOOK BACK AT METEOROLOGICAL WINTER

As you may know, those of us in the weather biz like to divide up the seasons a bit differently than the traditional “astronomical” way, which are based on the position of Earth in our annual trip around the sun. Those seasons don’t begin at exactly the same time/day every year, which makes for some sloppy record keeping. Our “meteorological” or climatological” seasons are the same every year, which is useful when talking about and comparing weather records..

So, “winter” (December-February) is in the books. How did it go? How was our annual winter forecast? Let’s dive in.

WINTER GOT OFF TO A VERY MILD START

December was a real yawner from a snow and cold standpoint. In fact, it was the 4th warmest December on record in Youngstown. The cold was bottled up out West for most of the month (and even out there…it wasn’t all that cold):

JANUARY: A PATTERN FLIP

Things changed in a big hurry as we welcomed in the near year. A very large ridge of high pressure settled over the West Coast, forcing a deep trough of low pressure to dominate in the East. After reaching a high of 55 degrees on New Year’s Day, we did not come withing a country mile of that kind of temperature for the rest of the month. It ended up being our coldest January in 7 years.

We were not alone in the deep freeze:

FEBRUARY: STORMY BUT NOT AS COLD

February brought about more frequent bouts of seasonable and mild temperatures, but it was an unsettled month with a few impactful winter storms.

SEASONAL SNOW: SURPRISINGLY LOW?

We are not done with snow for the season…we often see bouts of snow into April (and last year, May!), although the last 2 Marches have been uncharacteristically snow-free. This season, we have actually had less snow than average and less snow than last year through the end of February. Surprising, right? It’s been a wintry 6 weeks, but remember…..December was essentially snow-free. At the YNG airport, there was actually more snow in November than December.

GRADING THE WINTER FORECAST

Every year, I release a long range, seasonal outlook right around the first of November. These forecasts are created in a different way than the typical 7-day forecast and naturally are less skillful than those short range prognostications. But there IS skill in these outlooks; it’s not throwing darts. Some meteorologists in the private sector make seasonal forecasts in which big money is at stake. Energy suppliers and commodities traders pay handsomely for these forecasts. Lots of pressure! If there were no skill, they wouldn’t pay for them and the forecasters would be looking for other lines of work.

I’m not employed by that side of the weather biz, but I know my audience is interested in and can derive some value from the long-range forecast. So, how’d we do this year?

Pretty good! With some caveats.

TEMPERATURES

On a national scale, here was the forecast:

Here’s what happened:

PRECIPITATION

Forecast:

Verification:

Locally, we expected a warmer-than-average season and a wetter than average one too. Snowfall was expected to be below average. All verified! That said, I mentioned caveats. The idea in the forecast was that winter would start cold (very wrong) and end warm (meh). So while it came out in the wash as a good forecast, the sequence was wrong and I am frustrated by that. I won’t get int the meteorological reasons for why this happened, but, just like with any forecast miss, lessons have been learned.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SPRING

Again, we are considering “Meteorological” Spring, or March-May. Our temperature averages climb quickly, as you would expect:

You may recall that, last year, the new 30-year averages were released. Our “averages”, whether they be temperatures, precipitation or most anything else weather-related, are based on 30-year periods. Every 10 years, that 30-year block is rolled forward a decade. So now our averages are based on the years 1991-2020.

While temperatures have warmed considerably in recent years and decades…some months and seasons have seen more warming than others. In Spring, March has not changed much but May has gotten much warmer.

You could think of Spring as our most “extreme” season; it’s the season with the biggest difference between the all-time record low and record high.

This time of the year is “boy the days are getting longer fast!” season. The daylight gain in March alone is nearly 90 minutes; around 2 minutes, 45 seconds per day at the peak around the Vernal Equinox.

Winter of 2021-2022 was a La Nina Winter, in which we had a stout pool of cooler-than-average water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This cool pocket of water impacts wintertime weather patterns over the Northern Hemisphere. Typically, La Nina (or El Nino) has less of an impact outside of Winter, but it can still be a player in late Fall and early Spring. The La Nina will fade later this season, but I think it will still play the role of “traffic cop” for a while longer. Therefore, the Spring forecast is not that dissimilar than what happened from December-February: a wetter-than-average season seems likely…..and temperatures should shake out as warmer-than-average.

This type of configuration could raise the possibility of an active severe weather season in our region. In 2021, early Spring did NOT bring many opportunities for severe thunderstorms….but we made up for lost ground by very late Spring and Summer. Thunderstorms were even pretty common well into Fall. This year may not be as active in those time periods but early/mid Spring will bear watching.

2021 In Review: The Top 5 Local Weather Stories Of The Year

2021 IS IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR. LET’S REVIEW THE BIG WEATHER HAPPENINGS IN NORTHEAST OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

#1: IT WAS A WET SUMMER!

The Summer of 2021 was a soggy one, especially during the second half of the season. It was the wettest August on record! Total rainfall was almost 6 inches above average, particularly impressive in the absence of tropical system remnants crossing the area.

We also had 2 of the wettest hours on record in our region. These numbers are for the Youngstown-Warren Airport in Vienna, where 2.47” of rain fell in one hour in late July and 2.36” occurred in just an hour in Mid-August.

No surprise, considering how wet it was….but 2021 feature the 2nd most humid Summer on record.

#2: OCTOBER WAS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND RAINY

After a warm and dry September, October was one for the record books. As shown in the graphic above, rainfall totals were nearly 3” above average, making it the 3rd wettest October on record. Additionally, October was the 2nd WARMEST in recorded history! It was the warmest month compared to average in all of 2021.

#3: AFTER A SLOW START, IT WAS A BUSY SEVERE WEATHER SEASON

The chilly May weather made for a slow start to our traditional severe weather season but we made up for lost time pretty quickly. In fact, the season went into “overtime” in 2021. The very warm October helped fuel tornadic storms in the region, including 2 in Trumbull County on October 21.

The severe weather was especially prominent in the region that is covered by the Pittsburgh National Weather Service office. This graphic tells the story. Look how many tornadoes they had to deal with, including one in NE Mercer (9/22/21) and one in eastern Lawrence (5/4/21):

Pittsburgh NWS had a busy season but it was much less active in the area covered by the Cleveland office. Compare the number of issued Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings between the 2 offices in 2021:

#4: FEBRUARY-MAY WAS A WILD RIDE

After a pretty benign first 2/3 of the season, Winter finally showed up in full force in February. It was 3 degrees colder than average although we did not have a ton of snow.

The pattern then flipped and we had a fast start to Spring in March. Boy did we pay the price by May! We had snow on Mother’s Day…the 2nd consecutive year in which we had measurable snow on May 9th.

February

March

May

#5 A WARM, SNOW-FREE END TO THE YEAR

December defied expectations and was quite a balmy month, not only here locally but across much of the eastern 2/3 of the country.

December

With the warmth came a lack of snowfall. Just a paltry couple of inches at the airport and even less in other areas. It was one of the least snowy Decembers on record.

OTHER YEAR-END STATS

Precipitation totals were fairly uniform across the region in 2021. A wetter-than-average year for most.

It was the least snowy year since 2001:

An Update On Balmy December Pattern, Overall Winter Forecast

Is Winter Cancelled??

No, but it’s about to go on hiatus for a while. A month after the issuance of our original Winter Forecast, let’s see where we stand now and talk about the needed changes to the outlook.

The Original Forecast

Temperature-wise, the overall idea with the forecast was that the season would feature some hefty cold snaps but also some significant periods of warmth (compared to average), especially later in January and February. When averaged out, the 3 month period would likely come out as pretty close to “normal”.

With a very balmy mid-December pattern ahead of us, we have to adjust course. The updated forecast now tilts odds in favor of a warmer-than average season:

The important thing to keep in mind is the fact that not EVERY day or even week will be warm. In fact, I think there is room for a pretty cold period during the first part of January.

Another important caveat: mild Winters can still have a healthy amount of snow! In a mild-flavored Winter, you have to rely on moisture and cold air being synced up more than in Winters in which the presence of very cold air is usually already a given.

Confidence remains reasonably high that overall precipitation will be above average this Winter.

The Balmy Mid-December Pattern

So I outlined the overall seasonal forecast change above….what about back here in the near term? Well, mid-December is going to be very balmy. The jet stream will be very amplified next week, with a deep trough of low pressure over the western United States and a stout ridge over the East:

This results in a rare-looking 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center: slam-dunk odds of it being warm over a huge area:

Before we even get to the sustained warmth that’s coming our way next week, a very Spring-like day is ahead on Saturday. Ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures will surge into the 60s, probably breaking the daily record high of 61, set in 1979. There will also be some showers around, mainly early in the day and again late in the day. There may even be rare December thunderstorm! As if that were not enough, the afternoon may be quite windy…especially if the Sun comes out for a time.

Back To The Winter Forecast: Why Is The Pattern This Warm?

The warm December east of the Rockies is not something most meteorologists expected. With this year’s atmospheric/oceanic background state (La Nina, etc), the odds should be heavily in favor of a fast start to Winter. BUT! There’s one monkey wrench.

The North Pacific Cold Pool

A pool of colder-than-average water in this part of the Pacific (south of Alaska) is not all that unusual, especially in a La Nina. But this Fall/early Winter, the cold pool, and the atmospheric response to it, has been pretty impressive.

During Autumn, a very persistent upper-level low pressure area existed almost right over that cold water, resulting in cold and stormy weather for Alaska and western Canada. Eastern North America was very mild during September/October:

The western North America pattern persisted into November, although thanks to a “blocking pattern:” in the northern Atlantic, the eastern part of the continent was sharply colder than earlier in the season:

That blocking has broken down of late and the pattern for much of mid-December will snap back to the one that dominated in September/October.

There Are Signs The Pattern Will Change By Around Holidays/Early January

The highly anomalous warmth won’t last forever and the main drivers of atmospheric patterns are likely to start steering some cold into the region by the end of the month and into January. Some weather models suggest the period between Christmas and New Year’s will be at least more “typical” of the season and maybe even colder than average.

A colder “flip” around that time would remind us of the winter of 2017-2018, which one of our analogs for this winter. Much like this December, it was a very warm start to the month:

Early December 2017

Early December This Year

A dramatic change occurred by the holidays and a pretty severe cold snap unfolded:

We don’t know yet if a redux of December 2017 will occur but it certainly can’t be ruled out at this point.

The 2021-2022 Winter Forecast-Blog Version

BEFORE WE GET TO THIS YEAR, HOW’D WE DO LAST YEAR?

The overall idea last year was that we would have a pretty mild Winter with snowfall near or a little below average. Well December 2020 was very snowy (30.4”, the 2nd snowiest December on record) but it was not super cold. January was pretty tame with much less snow (8.8”). So the forecast was doing pretty well. Then…February came. It was easily the coldest month compared to average (-3.5 degrees) and it ensured that the season as a while would end up just a little above average. So our forecast ended up being too warm.

Last year was a La Nina Winter (more on that later) and those are typically fairly wet (rain, snow and everything in between) but last year was an exception.

Last year was the 2nd year in a row in which I was less than happy with how the forecast panned out. Lessons were learned!

SO, ARE THESE FORECASTS A CRAP SHOOT? WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS AND THE FARMER’S ALMANAC?

There is absolutely skill in seasonal forecasts when they are done following scientific principles. Meteorologists in all sectors of the weather enterprise put, at minimum, at least part of their reputation on the line when they issue these outlooks. Meteorologists who work for energy firms and with commodity traders make long-range outlooks in which millions of dollars is on the line. Those types of meteorologists would not be paid so handsomely if they were simply guessing or throwing darts at some sort of magical weather dartboard.

Seasonal forecasts by reputable meteorologists can be trusted although of course not every forecast is going to be on the mark. This is tricky business!

Meanwhile, the good ol’ Farmer’s Almanac is a fun publication that was some interesting stuff in it but the forecasts contained within are “for entertainment only”. Unfortunately some take those forecasts pretty seriously! Just like when I rant about tornado sirens, I’m always a bit perplexed by how many people will defend the Farmer’s Almanac to the death.

The techniques used in making these seasonal forecasts have gotten much better in recent years. Our knowledge of how atmospheric and oceanic features interact to influence global weather patterns has increased dramatically over the last few decades. BUT! Climate change is making this somewhat harder. The atmosphere and oceans are rapidly warming and this fact increases the chance for “surprises”, things we have not seen before, etc.

THIS HAS BEEN QUITE A RUN OF WARM WINTERS

Winter 2020-2021 ended up about 0.8 degrees warmer-than-average, making it the 6th mild Winter in a row. 8 of the last 10 have been “not that cold”.

HOW ARE THESE FORECASTS MADE?

Seasonal outlooks, much like the typical 7-day forecast you get on an app or from a meteorologist on TV, use a blend of computer model information and the forecaster’s experience/intuition. However, the most important ingredient is something we really don’t use in those typical daily forecasts. “Analogs” provide the foundation for the seasonal forecast. We pour through data to find years in the past in which there were similar conditions in some key areas in our oceans and also in our atmosphere. We even look at such far-flung places as the Indian Ocean and the stratosphere miles above our heads. We then keep digging through the data to see what happened those winters. That, theoretically can give us a starting point for our forecast for the upcoming winter.

KEY FACTORS THIS WINTER

This winter will be the 2nd in a row to feature a La Nina, which will will discuss momentarily. Other items of interest include cool water in the northeast Pacific Ocean, a pool of warmer-than-average water in the eastern Indian Ocean and a “negative” phase of something called the QBO. Plus: everyone’s favorite winter buzzword(s): the polar vortex.

LA NINA

La Nina is the cooling of the waters in a key part of the Pacific Ocean, near the equator. When this occurs, weather patterns are often altered over North America. BUT not all La Ninas are alike. The strength of the Nina and the location of the coolest water can make a big difference.

This Autumn’s La Nina should peak right at the edge of weak/moderate. It’ll likely be a little less intense than last season’s. The Nina should rapidly weaken late in the Winter and early in the Spring.

A look at water temperature anomalies shows some of the key features mentioned above:

WHAT IS THE QBO??

We look at the oceans a lot for these seasonal forecasts as the water temperature patterns can greatly influence the behavior of the atmosphere. But we also take note of the air wayyy above our heads, at the bottom of the stratosphere. The stratosphere is the 2nd layer of the atmosphere from the bottom. We live at the bottom of the troposphere but at the bottom of the stratosphere lies a river of air that can have an impact on winter weather patterns. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO, refers to the regularly oscillating wind pattern in this zone. When it’s in a westerly phase, often there is a lack of a “blocking” pattern over areas near the North Pole. The jet stream is more “zonal” and this keeps the cold air largely locked way up north. When it’s in the easterly (or “negative) phase, we tend to see more “blocky” weather patterns and this can force cold air south more frequently. The QBO is in that easterly or negative phase now and will continue to strengthen some as we head into winter.

SUNSPOT CYCLE

We are emerging from a period in which the Sun is very “quiet”, with a lack of sunspots. This 11-year cycle is known to have at least a little impact on actual weather during our winter season. Solar “minimums” tend to have a weaker polar vortex and more blocking (remember: more blocking means higher chances for cold, snow) and the opposite is true of solar maximums.

THIS YEAR’S ANALOGS

So, given all that was mentioned above, a weak-to-moderate 2nd year La Nina, occurring with a pool of cool water in the NE Pacific and warm water in the eastern Indian Ocean…along with an easterly (or “negative” QBO and just after a solar minimum…..what years appear to be most similar to this one?

Let’s start by saying no analog is a perfect match. On the list below there are years that are a closer match than others but this is the list of best matches since 1995. I did not use any years prior to 1995; it’s a somewhat arbitrary starting point but I do not think it’s all that useful to use years in the distant past. Climate change has made the oceans and atmosphere much warmer in recent decades and the world was just too different of a place “back in the day” to try to glean forecast ideas for a much warmer world.

3 of the 7 winters were cold. Those same winters were snowy. In fact, 2010-2011 is, easily, the snowiest winter on record here. The next year: a very warm winter with below average snow. See: no 2 La Ninas are alike.

COMPUTER MODELS

We have computer models that simulate the atmosphere for the next 24 hours, the next 7 days and even the next month. We also have “seasonal” models that project out several months. They are another tool in our tool belt but we have to know how to use them correctly.

The current (as of November 4) blend of seasonal models paints a warm-looking picture across the central and eastern US this Winter.

Notable and certainly something to consider, however, at this time last year this same model blend predicted the Winter of 2020-2021 would look like this:

Almost an identical forecast as this year. Here’s what actually happened: Oops.

THIS YEAR’S ANALOG BLEND

When you take those top analog years mentioned above and put them in the ol’ weather blender (with a few “scoops” of the best matching years to give them more weight), you get this for temperatures:

And this for precipitation:

SO WHAT’S THE FORECAST?

Ok, so considering the look of the analogs, the models, lessons learned from the past and more, what’s the forecast? I lean in the direction of this winter ending up near average temperature wise for our area. I do think that season will start out cold and December may be the coldest of the 3 months compared to average. Later in the Winter, the polar vortex will likely strengthen some and the pattern will become less blocky. This should result in periods of mild weather and perhaps some pretty significant warmth. The analogs suggest February could be quite balmy.

Nationally, the forecast is not as warm as the models but not as cold as the analog blend. Locally, I suspect the season ends up close to 2017-2018, wild swings but coming out in the wash as not far from average. That winter featured a wicked cold spell around Christmas, New Years but a very balmy February. The Spring was pretty grizzly with chilly temperatures, however.

The intensity of the NE Pacific cold pool makes me a bit nervous as it is similar to 2011-2012…a warm winter for us.

Overall, precipitation should end up above average. But how much of that will be snow? That’s the big question. Seasonal snow forecasts are hard; even in a relatively quiet winter, a couple of big storms can make it look like it was a crazy season.

This map shows the average snowfall (NOT this year’s forecast!) for our general region. Of course, lake-effect plays a big part in how this map looks.

Here’s another way to break down the forecast. I think the highest odds are for a near average season temperature wise and for snow as well. There are somewhat higher odds of the winter ending up mild as opposed to cold (see nervousness about a 2011-2012 redux mentioned above). Odds slightly favor near-average snow but I would not be surprised if we ended up snowier-than average or a bit below average either (if the warmer winter fears pan out). The odds of another paltry year for snow are slightly higher than the odds of a blockbuster season although the chances of either outcome remains pretty low.

Comparing this winter to last: it should be snowier and at least a little colder.

This would result in more salt usage than last year and higher energy bills as well. However, thankfully for our bank accounts, a severe winter seems unlikely. I don’t think we will see a repeat of 2010-2011.

THE BOTTOM LINE

After 6 straight mild-to-warm winters, we have a decent chance of this one being closer to average and we certainly don’t want rule out our first colder-than-average winter since 2014-2015. December may be the most consistently cold and snowy month and the back half of winter could be a wild ride which includes periods of Spring Fever.

UPDATE IN A MONTH

As we have done for the last several years, an update will be issued in early December. We’ll see if any substantial changes are needed! Have a good Winter!

Winter Forecasts: Can We Actually Get It Right??

Let’s Do A Pre-Winter Forecast Press Conference

My annual Winter Forecast is coming up on Thursday, November 4th. You can watch the short, “to the point” edition on 21 News at 6&11 and/or check out the long, super detailed, “geeky” version online that same evening. I’ll take some questions now.

Q: Hi Eric, are these seasonal forecasts a real challenge? Are they harder than routine short-term forecasts?

A: Yes and yes. Long range, seasonal forecasting is a relatively new endeavor compared to short and medium-range forecasts. Like with any “young” science, meteorologists and scientists have a lot still to learn…although long range forecasting is light years ahead of where it was just 10-15 years ago.

Q: The Farmer’s Almanac is calling for severe cold and snow this Winter. Do you agree?

A: The Farmer’s Almanac (as well as the Old Farmer’s Almanac) is a fun publication that has plenty of good content. Great bathroom reading! You know what it’s not good for? Weather forecasts. There is almost no science behind the prognostications and it is essentially the same stuff every year. They won’t sell as many copies if they advertise “BORING, SNOW-FREE WINTER THIS YEAR!”. When it comes to the Farmer’s Almanac, just skip the parts dealing with, you know, actual weather.

Q: How are seasonal forecasts made?

A: Making a seasonal forecast is a much different process than constructing the typical short/medium range forecasts you see us present on TV or that you can get on the StormTracker 21 app. In those daily forecasts, forecasters rely on a mix of computer modeling, social science and experience/intuition. Seasonal forecasts use some of that same stuff but what is most useful are what we call “analogs”. We look at data from the past to try and flesh out what may happen in the future. We look for years in the past in which there were similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions as this year.

Examples: This year will feature a La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. So we start by looking at past Fall/Winter seasons that had a La Nina. There’s cool water off the west coast of North America this Fall. Let’s find years that had a La Nina AND the cool water off the coast. And we keep going from there. Once we have a set of analog years we can form a composite picture of the weather that occurred those winters. That makes for a good starting point.

Then we can see what the long, LONG-range models are showing and if they jive with the analogs. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t. This is where experience, extensive research and old-fashioned intuition come in.

Q: Eric good grief. You guys can’t even get tomorrow’s forecast right. How are we supposed to trust a forecast for the whole Winter?

A: Who let Comments Section Guy in here. Anyway, any experienced TV meteorologist has no feelings left to hurt so it’s all good. But, to quote President Biden, “Here’s the deal folks”. I can’t speak for every weather forecast that’s out there for you to consume, but our forecasts are quite accurate. Perfect? No way. They never will be! Sometimes we even have a high-stakes bust. It’s just a fact of life in this business.

But I do keep track of these things and the high temperature forecast you see me give on TV every night is:

For the following day: Right within 3 degrees 90% of the time

For 7 days from now: Right within 3 degrees 40% of the time (within 5 degrees: 57%)

The skill level of seasonal forecasts varies from year to year as some are harder than others. But there IS skill. It’s not throwing darts, it’s not flipping a coin. In fact, millions and millions of dollars is at stake when meteorologists at energy companies make a seasonal outlook. You better believe they are putting a lot of blood, sweat and tears into those outlooks.

Q: The graphic above says it may be getting harder? I though you guys were getting better at this.

A: Forecasting techniques have certainly improved tremendously in recent years. However, yes it may actually be getting harder? Why? Climate change.

Remember the “analogs” I talked about before? The Earth is warming at such a pace that relying on data from several decades ago may no longer be all that useful.

Check out this map of October 2021’s ocean water temperature anomalies.

Now compare this to October 1985, just 36 years ago:

Some of the differences can be chalked up to natural cycles and variability that we \know exists in the world’s oceans. But it can’t be denied that there’s a lot more blue on the map in the bottom image.

Those were water temperatures, now let’s talk air temperatures. The next 3 maps are: September 2021, September 1985 and September 1955.

The “base state” of the atmospheric and oceanic systems are so much warmer now. Some La NIna’s these days are WARMER than strong El Nino’s were before. That throws a real monkey wrench into the forecasting process.

A partial solution: I have stopped using any analog years prior to 1995. It’s an arbitrary number, yes, but that’s where my process is right now. In future years maybe I’ll only go back to 2000.

Q: If the forecast doesn’t go well, will you admit it?

A: Yes! I always do. You HAVE to be humble in this profession. I believe you have to be transparent too. I want you to get your weather forecasts from me and our team, not some random app. Honesty, reliability, transparency and of course accuracy are (hopefully!) how we achieve that.

See you November 4th!

A Review Of Summer 2021: It Was Wet! Pretty Warm Too

METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS OVER: WHAT A SEASON IT WAS!

Some of the statistics are pretty impressive so I wanted to compile them all in one place. Summer 2021 will go down in history as a pretty “uncooperative” summer for many as it was pretty wet at times and it was also steamy….especially at night. Air conditioners were busy.

THE BIG PICTURE

Let’s talk temperatures first. It was our 6th consecutive warmer-than-average summer but we did not have a lot of “extreme” heat. Only 4 90 degree days (although many 88s and 89s could have easily become 90 degree days. Luck of the draw). However, thanks to the elevated humidity and higher-than-usual cloud cover…the nights were warm. Overall our summertime low temperatures were the warmest in 27 years.

Rain was the big story. It was the 2nd wettest June-August on record and August was (EASILY!) the wettest in recorded history. Our area’s weather observations and records are from the Youngstown-Warren Airport in Vienna (Trumbull County). This happens to be the wettest spot in our entire area for the summer season although just about the entire WFMJ viewing area was wetter-than-average. The “driest” areas were between Rt 224 and Rt 30.

We had 2 of the wettest hours on record at the airport this summer...on June 29th and August 19th. The average recurrence interval for these events is about every 75 years. We had 2 such events in less than 2 months. pic.twitter.com/Ybm5Zk4qjG

— Eric Wilhelm (@EricWFMJ) September 1, 2021

It was really humid this summer. Using the metric of number of hours with dewpoints at or above 65 degrees, it was the 2nd most humid summer on record, trailing only 1995.

20 of the last 23 summers have featured above-average dewpoints! Climate Change is here and while the impacts in a climate zone such as ours tends not to get the headlines that are generated from wildfires and more intense hurricanes…..it’s having an impact here. More moisture in the air=more precipitation=more flooding problems.