MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
I am back after some time off and it looks like the weather will keep me on my toes over the next week.We are almost halfway through March and of course it has been warm. Here is how this March compares to recent Marches:
2012 and 2010 ended up warmer than this month (so far).2000 was also balmy.Rain has been pestering us since yesterday morning. Here is a sampling of totals:
What about today? Well I do not think it will do much during the daylight hours as we will be in between systems most of the day. The blob of showers to our southwest is what is likely to track our way this evening.
That is associated with a lobe of "vorticity" or spin in the atmosphere at around 18,000 feet. Spin at that level promotes rising air, clouds and precipitation.
Here's the simulated radar off the HRRR model, showing showers returning this evening:
While we can't rule out some evening thunder here, it's a low chance. Higher risk of thunder and lightning in southeast Ohio...where there also exists a small chance for severe weather:
Mild again today with highs in the lower and middle 60s.
MIDWEEK: FINALE OF WARM PATTERN (FOR NOW)
On Tuesday, we expect a little damp weather to start but most of Election Day will be dry with a cloudy to partly sunny sky. Still mild.
Tomorrow night may be quite active out toward Chicago/Indianapolis with a chance for severe weather. Those storms are likely to weaken considerably coming east and I am not concerned about severe weather here. Maybe a rumble of thunder tomorrow night.
Wednesday will feature a weak frontal passage; might be a shower or two in the morning with that. Another nice, mild day with highs in the 60s.
The cold front that will put an end to the unusual warmth will approach Thursday and showers may break out before the day is through. It will be the last warm day for a while.
BACK TO "NORMAL"
Friday and the weekend will be much more typical of mid-March. Highs mainly in the 40s behind the cold front.
We MIGHT see a few snowflakes by the end of the weekend. Stay tuned on that.The 5-10 period is likely to be near or somewhat below average. A warm up should follow this stretch.
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The day started out fairly cloudy but there should be some clearing...leading to a jump in temperatures. The HRRR (as usual) is pretty aggressive with temperatures today but it is likely not far off. Shave a couple of degrees off these readings and you probably have today's highs.
The record high of 77 is out of reach today. But WOW what a day.Quite the remarkable pattern across the continent today. An unusual upper-level low is heading across northern Mexico...upper lows usually do not travel this far south. This is pumping up the ridge downstream, leading to the May Preview in so many places.
Although Friday will be cooler, it will STILL be at least 10 degrees above average. Not bad!
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:
Tomorrow:
Wednesday:
Notice some themes here? The area will be south and east of all the stormy weather and we will remain firmly in the warm sector. 70-73 degrees Wednesday? I think it's possible.
The forecast challenge for Friday and the weekend is: Does the active weather near the front sag south, giving us a nice Friday/Saturday or does it stall overhead, leading to more raindrops? I lean toward the drier idea now but stay tuned.
Precipitation should be pretty close to average for the rest of the month.
Flurries will be found here and there this morning. Highs today in the upper 20s.
How much snow? I think 1-3" is a good range for the viewing area and I suspect more places will be closer to 3" than 1" south of I-80.NWS snow forecast. We will put out a map this afternoon.
On Saturday, a weak area of low pressure will scoot across the region and there will probably be some light snow (maybe mixed with rain). Snow should be no big deal.
Sunday looks like the better half of the weekend with sunshine and more seasonable temperatures.
NEXT WEEK: WOO HOO!
And we not alone. Much of the country had a warmer-than-average winter. Really the ONLY "cold" spot was in parts of the Southwest. Departures from average:
This was the 7th warmest winter on record in Youngstown. 2011-2012 was actually slightly warmer.
We are not done with accumulating snow yet but here is where we stand on the list of least snowy seasons:
We might drop a few slots on this list with a few inches of snow still possible over the coming days.
On December 1, we did update this to make the forecast warmer, bit obviously did not go far enough.Actual departures from average:
We had the warmth (and cold) in the right places but just were not warm enough. Overall a good forecast though.
Overall we expected a month much closer to average locally.Actual temperatures:
Pretty good! January ended up being 0.4 degrees above average in Youngstown.
Expected February to be the coldest month (compared to average) of the winter. Also talked about it being the snowiest (which it was).I would have given this a lower grade but we DID update the forecast late in January and did take it in the right direction (just not far enough)
February ended up 3.3 degrees above average locally.
These numbers are all below average. And this forecast was pretty much on the money (slightly too high). As of Tuesday morning the total at the airport is 31.2".
Rain totals will average 0.25"-0.50".
As colder air wraps in behind the area of low pressure, rain will change to snow showers around or after midnight tonight.
Snow accumulations will be very minor....a coating to maybe an inch. We can't rule out 2 inches in some areas north of I-80.
BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW: THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SNOWFLAKES SATURDAY
Highs are likely to top 70 degrees for AT LEAST a couple of days late in the week.
The rest of the day will feature a gusty wind and some clearing. Hi-res models show the Sun returning this afternoon:
Temperatures will remain well above average with some places touching 50 this afternoon.
We are not expecting the snow to be a "big deal" but, especially on non-paved surfaces there might be a slushy inch (maybe 2" north of I-80) by daybreak Wednesday.
Accumulating snow is most likely south of I-70 with this feature.
But still, there is at least a chance that the Valley gets a small accumulation of snow late Thursday night and early Friday. More on that as we get closer.
It may not be a redo of the ridiculously warm start to Spring in March 2012 but it should be impressive nonetheless!
As we have been talking about, snow will have a hard time sticking, especially on paved surfaces, until late this afternoon and early this evening. The ground is warm and temperatures will be near or even a little above freezing until that point.Still there can be a burst of steadier, heavier snow at the start of rush hour that can cause some issues.
The next cold front is on the way late Sunday night and early Monday with a chance for rain and snow showers. Does not look like a big deal.
Rain totals are exceeding 3/4" of an inch already in much of the region.
We can expect a storm total rainfall of 1-1.5" by tonight.Simulated radars for the mid-Atlantic region and our local area:
We can see breaks in the rain this afternoon and evening but there will be spotty showers around. There is a small chance for a rumble of thunder. The chance for thunderstorms is higher to our south:
The Gulf Coast got rocked by severe weather yesterday and last night and today the mid-Atlantic region down to the Carolinas is under the gun.With the dry slot moving overhead this afternoon, temperatures can shoot up into the 50s once again.
Snow amounts will not be all that impressive. Here's the map I issued last evening and it looks generally fine this morning:
Current modeling:
In general, an inch or two inches of wet snow will about do it. 3-4" may be generous in the northern part of the viewing area but I can't rule it out either. As far as impacts....with temperatures above freezing for most of the daylight hours Thursday I would expect most roads to just be wet. Surfaces are warm after this mild spell and it's hard to get snow to stick on pavement in late February during the day unless it is really coming down hard (thanks to increasing sun strength). Roads can turn slick after sunset Thursday but I am not expecting problems for Friday morning.
Rain will be steadiest in the morning hours Wednesday and then a little more "hit or miss" in the afternoon. Then steadier rain will return Wednesday night.This system will produce a major severe weather outbreak in the Deep South today ionto tonight.
We are not expecting severe weather here but there might be a rumble of thunder late Wednesday.
Rainfall totals from Wednesday to Wednesday night will likely average an inch or so.
Snow showers will linger into Thursday night. Current thinking for snow accumulations is 1-3" although some local amounts to 4" may be possible north of I-80.
By Thursday morning the storm will be heading east of our region and the counterclockwise flow around low pressure will drag colder air down from the north. This will change rain over to snow showers.This will not be a snow "storm"; the snow showers will be scattered in nature Thursday into Thursday night. Still, some of them can be of decent intensity and result in accumulations.
I suspect that parts of the viewing area will pick up something like 1-3" worth of snow by Friday morning. We'll hone in on the numbers as we get closer. Current models:
Flurries will linger into Friday and it will be a blustery and cold day.
The wind will be strong this day and temperatures should fall. The snow showers may be numerous enough that we get some accumulation. Perhaps even a few inches by Friday morning. I suspect the best chance for a decent accumulation will be north of I-80.
Thanks for reading and have a great rest of the weekend.Eric
The models, as is typical, are shuffling back and forth with the track of the system. Last night's modeling featured a westward shift. An eastward shift would not surprise me today/tomorrow.The European model has 2 distinct area of low pressure Wednesday morning. The western low is so far west that mild air would get drawn into Ohio and western PA. Taken literally, it would suggest a period of RAIN or a mix Wednesday followed by some wet snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
THE GFS sort of has a similar idea.
Here's my latest map showing where I think snow is possible and likely with this storm. While I have our region in the "likely" zone, that does not mean it will be a BIG snow event here. I just suspect it snows at least SOME.
Overall confidence in ALL aspects of this system is LOW. We'll see if the weekend brings an increase in confidence.
Thanks for reading,Eric 
Cold though with temperatures almost 10 degrees blow average this afternoon.
A "low level jet" will get going, a very fast-moving river of air only 5,000 feet above our heads. Winds will be screaming at 70-95 mph in that jet.
Thankfully, a fairly strong inversion will prevent a lot of that wind energy from getting pulled down to the ground. But it will be windy anyway thanks to the pressure gradient. Some gusts can reach 40 mph or so in the afternoon. 50 mph+ gusts are likely in western Ohio.Temperatures will soar and a LOT of melting will occur Friday and Friday night.
Notice the European model ensemble suite does not have a tight clustering of low pressure placements but you can see the general idea it is going for.I think odds are favoring *SOME* impacts for us in eastern Ohio/western PA. Big impacts? Nuisance impacts? Don't know that yet.Weather weenies and snow lovers no doubt are drooling over the operation run of the European model this morning. It has a comparable storm to this week's. The ensemble mean snowfall is quite a bit less though. Bottom line: All things are on the table. No impacts, some impacts, big impacts. I lean toward "some" at the moment. Stay tuned.
If you have watched me on TV or followed me on social media/this blog for a while, you know that I don't hide from busted forecasts. I admit when I am wrong. I also do proudly proclaim that our forecasts are the most accurate you can find from any source for our area and I have the statistics to back that up. Accuracy is very important to us. I track it obsessively, recording our (and 4 other sources) forecasts each day and having a complicated spreadsheet tabulate the errors for each time period.So in that spirit, how do I think we did with this storm?Pretty well, but with plenty of room for improvement.
My only knock on this is that the ice threat was overplayed to a degree. There was some freezing rain southeast of Youngstown but not enough to have big impacts.
A decent first effort but obviously underdone for 75% of the area.The next major update to the map came at midday Monday. 
Good step, just not far enough. Played down the mixed precip, introduced an 8-12" area and moved the 4-8" area farther east a little.By mid-afternoon Monday, the storm was really "showing its hand" and the hi-resolution, short-range modeling was locking on to the fact that the mild air was not going to much of a factor and the Valley would reside in the "bullseye" of highest moisture content.The final map, issued a couple of hours before the snow started: 
This was pretty good. The 8-12" area could have come a little farther south and east but not by much.
More updates throughout the day. 
Hi-res radar through 3am Monday: 
This light snow can add up to a fluffy 1" or so (locally 2") through tomorrow afternoon.
That is going to drag the mild air awfully close to the viewing area. I think surface temperatures will be near 32 most of Monday night and Tuesday morning. The question will be: what's the temperature like a few hundred and thousand feet above our heads?If it gets to 32 and above in a deep enough layer, sleet, freezing rain and perhaps plain rain could get involved for a time. I think this is most likely SE of Youngstown.So, there are challenges.
I DO think that the odds of 4"+ are highest in the western half of our viewing area...farther from the possible mild air intrusion.Current model snowfall for Vienna area (airport):
Am going to wait for the full run of morning models and then have a bigger update, including a snow map, this afternoon.