WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING!
Our dry stretch continues today...we have not had rain since the 11th of the month. Thankfully the start of April was wet so we are in no danger of things getting TOO dry.
High pressure is off to our east today and this will provide plenty of sunshine and a nice warm up after a chilly start.
FINALLY RAINDROPS
The atmosphere will moisten up on Thursday and while the day is certainly no washout, there will be some showers around at times. The highest risk of wet weather looks to be in the afternoon and evening.
Showers will linger into part of Friday. There may be a drying trend in the afternoon.
We also have an outside chance for thunder Thursday afternoon and again on Friday.Rain totals should shake out to around 1/2 inch.
PLEASANT APRIL WEEKEND
The weekend is looking good! Sunday will be the warmer half of the weekend and both days will feature some sunshine. Not as warm as this past weekend but still quite nice.
EARLY NEXT WEEK
That front that you see on Sunday's map. It will make for forecasting headaches across the region early next week. There will be a HUGE temperature difference across the boundary, perhaps on the order of 35-40 degrees. How far south will the front wobble Monday? I suspect it will not come this far south...but if it manages to, temperatures could be in the 40s instead of the upper 60s!
Either way, some showers are likely Monday and Tuesday.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
Bummer....cool northeast wind kept the temperature from rising as high as we thought Tuesday. 3 degrees off.
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Behind this front, we will have to "settle" for temperatures 8-9 degrees above average today. Boo hoo!
After a chilly night tonight with some back yards seeing temperatures in the upper 30s, tomorrow looks EXCELLENT with afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s.
Models are pointing toward about a half inch of rain.
A shower may try to sneak in by late Sunday but overall the weekend is looking tranquil.
The pattern that was responsible for the amazing late-week/weekend weather is still in place. An "Omega Block" remains stuck over the US, with the "good part" of the block (the ridge) right over us.
The result will be an unsettled day here, although the rain will not fall the entire day. In fact, there may be a decent lull around midday/early afternoon. Steadier rain will be back for late this afternoon and early this evening.15 hour futurecast:
Chilly Tuesday but then back to average and above average Wednesday through the weekend.
San Diego Weather! Hardly a cloud in the sky Wednesday through Sunday. Grab the shades.
Temperatures will get into the 40s Friday afternoon so as the precipitation returns Friday evening, the air temperature should still be in the mid and upper 30s. So the snow will have a hard time sticking at first. There may even be some rain drops initially, mainly south of Rt 30.
The atmosphere will cool overnight and the snow will continue to fall. It will stick to non-paved surfaces first but eventually any untreated surfaces can start to pick up some accumulation.
As the wind turns around to the north Saturday morning, some lake-effect/lake-enhancement will get going, adding to totals...mainly in the snow belt. Snow will taper to flurries in the afternoon. It will look and feel like January.
While this is valid for areas near Vienna, it may be a decent representation of the entire WFMJ viewing area.Odds of our viewing area picking up 1" or more are pretty high. European model has those odds around 70-90%:
The odds of 3" or more are quite a bit lower, which lends credence to the idea that this will be a 1-3" type of event.
Highest risk of 3" or more is probably in the primary snowbelt: Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula counties.This should NOT be one of our biggest April snow events on record. Who remembers 1987?
In the wake of that front, temperatures will blast off during the midday and afternoon. We expect highs in the 60s this afternoon. The other thing we will notice today is the wind, which can gust to 35-40 mpg this afternoon. I don't think we will mind with the warm temperatures.Shower timing has not changed much since yesterday.....we look for rain drops to push in between 7-9pm on average. 15 hour simulated radar:
Showers will stick around into at least part of the day tomorrow. Models are advertising about 1/3"-1/2" of rain in total:
By late Thursday, temperatures will have cooled enough that there may be a few snowflakes across northeast Ohio and western PA:
I think there is a fair chance of a small accumulation of snow...perhaps an inch or so? Well hone in on this over the next 24 hours.
High temperatures Saturday.....more like February.
Sunday will be the nicer half of the weekend. Still quite chilly with highs in the lower 40s. Some sunshine as well.
LONG RANGE
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
Today will be nice and sunny as a dome of high pressure drifts across. Cold though with highs 15-16 degrees below average.
A 1/2 inch of rain can be expected by late Wednesday night/early Thursday.
On Thursday, temperatures will hold steady then fall....and it may be cold enough for...sigh...snowflakes in the afternoon.
Not a very warm pattern beyond that either. Not cold...but not the kind of pattern that will produce 70s and 80s like we get sometimes in April. Day 15-25 outlook:
Strong cold front is pushing across the state this morning.
The rest of today will feature variable clouds. A stray flurry can't be ruled out this afternoon.This is a LEGIT cold air mass that is sweeping in. Lows tonight will slip into the upper teens. The record low is 16 at YNG airport.
That front will sweep eastward Thursday and it could be another day with falling temperatures.
Could there be snowflakes seen before the day is through?? Maybe.Friday will be blustery and cold. Another taste of February or early March. Chance for flurries.
The pattern beyond this does not look "warm" but it does look more "typical" of this time of the year.
But of course March was warm (4th warmest on record) and it put most of us in the mood for true Spring. Well we'll get there but not just yet.A compact "clipper" system will dive into the southern Great Lakes late Saturday:
While this might start as a rain/snow mix or even just rain briefly Saturday evening, a quick changeover to snow will occur. There will be some lake-enhancement as the cold air blows over the open water.The ground is warm, yes, but this is coming at night, giving the snow a better chance to stick. Especially to non-paved surfaces. The snow can come down at a decent clip for a while (especially north of I-80), also helping it to stick to the warm ground.Models showing an inch or so for the I-80 corridor:
I think this is reasonable for areas north of Youngstown. I could even see how someone gets 2 inches in northern Mercer and northeast Trumbull. For areas south of I-80, a coating to 1/2" is certainly possible.This will be long gone by the time most are up and at em' Sunday morning (just leftover flurries) so I am not expecting road issues Sunday morning. 
It's appropriate that March will end on a warm note as it certainly has been a warm month not only locally but across much of the Lower 48:
The highest risk for thunder will be in the early evening. Not much concern for severe weather here. The risk is much higher to the west and south.
Rain totals through Thursday night will average 0.50"-1.00".
A STRONGER front will arrive late Saturday and this will lead to snow showers late Saturday and Saturday night. Could there be a coating in spots? Yeah maybe.
Sunday will be partly sunny and cold with temperatures mostly in the 30s. Chance for a flurry.
On Monday, models are showing another relatively weak system cruising through. High confidence that it will be chilly once again but low confidence in the precipitation details. Will be a RAW home opener for the Indians.
Plenty of sunshine today. Although temperatures will be a few degrees below average, the strong March Sun will make it feel warmer.
At least Thursday will be warm with highs in the 60s once again.
The first weekend of April will be more like early March, especially Sunday. Another cold front may bring a shower Saturday, with flurries likely to be seen in some spots Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures seem likely to stay in the 30s Sunday.
The cold will last a few days but it looks like a mild pattern will return by the middle of next week.
And some vivid lightning. This shot, by Leanne in Girard, was taken around 2:45am:
Last night's rain is gone but we will still need the wet weather gear at times during the midday and afternoon as this area of moisture pivots southeast. Highest chance for steady rain will be north of I-80.
Simulated radar:
Temperatures are going nowhere today...holding in the 40s for the rest of the day. I miss yesterday.
Wednesday will be a winner with warmer temperatures, some sun and a gusty afternoon breeze. Lower 60s are on the menu.
While temperatures will likely get into the 40s Saturday, Sunday and Monday (Opening Day!) may feature afternoon readings no higher than the 30s.
Remember, measurable snow in April is NOT unusual in these parts. Roughly 4% of our annual snow falls during the month of April.
Temperatures will soar in our region today with mid 70s common from Pittsburgh to Zanesville.
But that system is heading our way and it will drag a cold front toward the Valley this evening. Showers will become increasingly likely around dinner time and we expect an unsettled evening with showers and even thunderstorms.15 hour simulated radar (HRRR model):
What about severe weather? Could these storms turn strong? It's a marginal situation. On one hand, the front is coming through at an unfavorable time of day for severe weather. The atmosphere will not be all that unstable. On the other hand, a "low level jet", a pocket of strong winds at around 5,000 feet, will be pushing overhead. This can aid in storm development and increase the chance that some of those strong winds get pulled down in heavier cells.Animation showing the arrival of that jet this evening:
The Storm Prediction Center has the area in the "marginal" risk for severe weather.
So, something to watch for sure, although again the overall risk of damaging winds is not all that high.
Easter Sunday looks warm and dry (through the daylight hours) with increasing afternoon clouds. Might be 70 or so! Enjoy. Rain arrives Sunday night.
We look for a soggy period Sunday night into at least Monday morning.
Our hi-res short term model, which can overcook things at times, has us near 70(!) this afternoon. It's probably too high but not by much. Notice the front sagging across Lake Erie and quickly dropping temps along the lake shore this afternoon.
There is only a small chance for a passing shower this afternoon as that front creeps south.
Rain will probably average 0.40-0.60 inches.
Severe weather threat mainly south of the Ohio River.
That high pressure system will build east, leading to a........
Easter Sunday continues to look better. Highs should be well into the 60s! Any rain with an approaching system will hold off until very late in the day or at night.
Temperatures will jump into the mid and upper 50s today, about 7-10 degrees above average.
On Thursday, a cold front will march east into the region. Showers are most likely from midday on; there is a chance for thunderstorms as well.
A chilly air mass will reside over the Valley for one more day today. With a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures will make it to around 40 or so once again.
This morning's low of 25 was cold, but not unusual for this time of the year. It's tempting to think that it will end being the coldest morning until next Autumn but history says that's usually not the case. There have only been 2 years in which it does not hit 25 on or after March 22. 2000 and 2005:
Wednesday is likely to be just as warm if not warmer...many places will probably touch 60 degrees. Another breezy day.
Once again, a small chance for an afternoon shower.
Severe weather? Not very likely but I can't rule it out at this point.
The weekend will bring a warm up with temperatures back in the 50s.
Nice and warm again with highs not far from 60.
A spotty shower can occur toward evening. Although these will be small cells and limited in coverage if they grow high enough they could bring small hail. Something to watch for.
Things get interesting Saturday night and Sunday. An area of low pressure will ride northward and will be close enough to the coast to bring a decent threat of crocus-crushing snow to parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England. Meanwhile, moisture may come far enough west to bring far eastern Ohio and western PA some wet snow starting late Saturday night.
Now I do not believe for a second that this will be a HIGH impact event for us. BUT, could it cause some minor inconveniences early Sunday morning? SURE! It could be slick in spots. During the daylight hours Sunday, any snow that falls will mainly stick to non-paved surfaces.Model snowfall forecasts:
European model, which has been very consistent with this idea for a day or so now, has about 50%-60% odds of 1" or more of snow.
Spring officially arrives just after midnight Sunday morning.
A big warm up is coming for midweek though and I think we'll see 60 as early as Wednesday.
That front mighhhht bring another round of showers around lunch time. I suspect the HRRR model is a bit overdone but I can't rule out some midday raindrops.
After that, it will turn mostly sunny, windy and warm. Wind gusts in this afternoon's "well mixed" atmosphere can reach 35 or even 40 mph.
What do I mean by "well mixed"? It means that air will be rising and falling from the surface all the way up to 5,000 or 6,000 feet. The high winds that exist up at that level can get "pulled down" when the atmosphere is well mixed.Highs today will be 20 degrees above average.
Friday will be much more seasonable and even a little chilly. A sprinkle or even a flurry(!) is possible.
A warm up seems likely later next week.
Pretty close to halfway through the month. Just about the ENTIRE nation has been warm.
Amazing.On to today. Tough forecast today as our temperatures will depend greatly on whether or not the clouds thin this afternoon. Currently we have a deck of low stratus clouds around with spotty drizzle.
Short range hi-res models are NOT optimistic that these clouds break today.
Therefore, the model keeps temperatures in the lower 50s all day.
Hmmmmm. We will almost surely have to adjust our official high of 62 down into the 50s.Severe weather will become a concern late today and tonight for areas to our west. A "slight" risk has been issued from northwest Ohio to eastern Iowa:
Not concerned about severe weather around here. A couple of showers can roll through late tonight and tomorrow morning along a weak frontal boundary.
With some afternoon clearing and a gusty wind, temperatures should return to the 60s tomorrow.
The GFS model shows some snowflakes Friday, not buying that...but it will certainly be cooler with temperatures in the 40s.
I suspect Sunday is cloudier and there might even be a wet snow shower around. Not confident about that at this point.
