TUESDAY (MAY 31) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
Hope you had a good weekend and enjoyed the great weather that we had on Memorial Day. As many begin a short work week, more warm and pleasant weather is on the way.While temperatures will reach the lower 80s today, dewpoints remain in the comfortable zone (50s) so it will not be stifling.
Wednesday will be a couple of degrees warmer but still not all that humid. Highs around 85-86.
THURSDAY: UNSETTLED
Thursday holds the best (only) chance for wet weather this week as a cold front is expected to roll across the area. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, mainly from midday on....but the day will be far from a washout. Not very concerned about severe weather.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NICE!
In the wake of the front, we look for nice early June weather Friday and Saturday with sunshine both days. Highs in the 70s with low humidity. Perfect for graduation parties and other early June outdoor staples.
RAIN SUNDAY?
Sunday could bring some showers to the Valley with the next system.
Behind that system, a trough of low pressure will swing through the Great Lakes, meaning some cool weather is likely early next week. There may be a couple of days with highs in the 60s.
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This map will look different by May 31.Today: PERFECTION with sunshine, dry air and afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s.
On Thursday and Friday, expect temperatures to soar well into the 80s with noticeable humidity. Random/pop-up thunderstorms will be a possibility both days, especially in the afternoon.
Rain amounts over the last 24 hours:
Sunday will be pleasant with some sunshine. Temperatures back to average or slightly above (lower 70s)
Hi-res simulated radar for next 15 hours:
Any rain will be quite light.Temperatures will struggle today; around 60 or so this afternoon.
That moisture on the Friday map will head our way late Friday night.
I SUSPECT we can salvage Saturday afternoon with not much more than a passing shower. Cool-ish Saturday with highs probably in the 60s.Sunday will be a nicer day with seasonable temperatures and (probably) dry weather. Only a small (20%) chance for a shower.
Today started cold and frosty. Low temperatures:
High pressure is nearly overhead today so it'll be a nice, sun-filled afternoon. Still below average but MUCH better than the weekend!
Dewpoints will be mainly in the lower 60s later today, making it feel rather humid (especially by May standards). The warmth and humidity will make the atmosphere modestly unstable later today as a cold front approaches. A shower or thunderstorm is something that can't be ruled out this afternoon but the highest risk of wet weather is this evening into the overnight. 15 hour futurecast:
I am not worried about widespread severe weather with the front coming through at night and a lack of wind shear in the atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center has much of Ohio in a "marginal" risk and honestly I suspect they are too far east with this.
The afternoon will be breezy and less humid with sunshine and temperatures in the lower 70s. Take advantage if you can!
Sunday: Yick. Even cooler with spotty showers that may have soft hail/graupel. Wet SNOW could be seen in southern NY and northern PA (I don't think we see snowflakes here). Highs around 50 or so. Many will stay in the 40s. Catch up on Netflix.
FROST/FREEZE THREAT?
We expect variable amounts of clouds today with the weather staying largely dry until late afternoon. That's when a shower or thunderstorm is most likely to pop up here and there. 15 hour futurecast:
Severe weather risk is very minimal today....any thunderstorm this afternoon will bring a downpour. Remember that lightning is always dangerous.
Showers and thunderstorms will wait until pretty late in the day to get this far east. The greatest risk will be after 5-6pm:
While the risk of severe weather is somewhat higher than today, it's still pretty low. Higher likelihood to our west:
In the wake of the front, Friday will feature a drying trend with a pretty nice afternoon. Highs near 70 with noticeably lower humidity.
Sunday will be quite chilly as well. A secondary weather disturbance might bring an afternoon shower or sprinkle. Again...temperatures no higher than 52-55.
Well this is a bit deceiving. A lot of the rain is not reaching the ground north of I-70. There is a lot of DRY air in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere so the rain evaporates on the way down.You can see the dry air when looking at a vertical profile of the atmosphere (a "sounding"). The sounding for Youngstown early this afternoon shows a large spread in the green (dewpoint) and res (temperature) lines, indicating the air is quite dry.
The HRRR model simulated radar shows some of the precipitation trying to work in around midday today. Aside from a sprinkle, I am not expecting any rain...just an increase in clouds.
Highs today will be just a shade below average.
Wednesday will bring a better chance for thunder as more humid air arrives. Notice the "CAPE" a measure of instability, gets pretty high in the afternoon:
Thursday is the day with the best chance for stronger storms, depending on the timing of the arrival of the next front. If the front approaches late in the afternoon, some storms could be feisty.
More wet weather is around this morning. Our rain will be coming from the EAST today, which happens....but not all that often.
15 hour simulated radar shows more spotty showers this afternoon:
Temperatures will be on the cool side today....reaching to the upper 50s to perhaps 60.
The rain will be long gone by daybreak Sunday. A chilly day with highs in the lower 60s but we expect lots of sunshine.
The rest of May is shown to be near average on the latest runs of the CFS model. Our forecast is for May to end up slightly warmer-than-average.
Looks like a wall of water heading our way. BUT! This band of showers will have a hard time making it into far eastern Ohio and western PA. That said, there can be spotty showers later this afternoon and evening. 15 hour futurecast:
Hourly chance for rain:
A seasonable day today.
The showers will make a southward push tonight but we expect tomorrow to be pretty cloudy with a little rain at times. Temperatures will be on the cool side as a result.
Rain totals over the next couple of days should average 0.25"-0.50".
Saturday looks warmer and we should see temperatures push into the 70s. Timing of the next front is pretty good in that the showers and storms will come mostly after dark Saturday night.
There might be some gusty thunderstorms with this front.Mother's Day still looks like a winner although it will be cool-ish with highs in the lower 60s.
Wednesday promises to be slightly warmer with some sunshine. A cold front will approach late in the afternoon but it is going to run out of steam fairly quickly. So, not much more than a shower or two late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Wetter weather to our west.
Setting the stage for a pleasant, seasonable Mother's Day on Sunday. Highs should be in the 60s.
There was hail with that storm but the hail ultimately stayed south of the East Liverpool area.Rain totals over the last 24 hours:
The rain is gone this morning and the balance of today will be mostly cloudy and tranquil. Current weather map:
Temperatures cooled into the 40s overnight and today will be a cool day overall with highs near 60.
Thursday will be damp and chilly with temperatures staying in the 50s. Some light rain and drizzle seems likely.
6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has a decent likelihood of some warm temperatures in our region:
Expect a several-hour period of rainy weather...things will become more scattered or "hit/miss" for the mid and late afternoon hours. 15 hour futurecast:
Breakdown of rain chances today:
Temperatures will really struggle today. Highs 52-56 on average.
Models in good agreement on rainfall totals over the next 36 hours:
Temperatures will stay cool Friday as well....no matter which model you look at...the answer is "grab the jacket". Highs again 52-56.
Expect periods of rain Saturday night into Sunday.
The rain is likely to stick around into at least part of Monday. The GFS model (shown) scoots the rain away too fast, in my opinion.
The weather is still quiet active in the middle of the country although severe weather will not be as common today as it was yesterday.
That storm system, in a weakened form, will track our way tomorrow. This will lead to a good chance for raindrops.
I suspect the wettest period will be the midday hours. The day should not be a total washout. Hourly odds of precipitation falling where you are (should say THURSDAY):
Temperatures may struggle Thursday. Some modeling has us barely into the lower 50s. Ignore the European model line (purple) as it is doing something funky.
Friday looks to stay cloudy and damp with an "inverted trough" setup over western PA/eastern OH. Can be a touch of rain at times.
Model rain totals through Friday:
On Sunday....rain is looking likely. The GFS model (shown) is probably too far south with the rain. Get the grass mowed on Saturday.
The band of heavy rain and thunder has pushed well south and many places have sunshine at 8:35am.
The front that is still off to our north will glide through around midday. There can be a spotty shower (small chance for thunder) but that is about it. Most of today will be dry. 15 hour simulated radar:
Temperatures will reach the mid and upper 60s around midday and then readings will hold steady or even slowly fall.
Severe weather outbreak is still expected today in the Plains states. Se veral large, long-lived tornadoes and plenty of large, damaging hail seem likely. The most active part of the day will be early this evening.
Today will feature variable amounts of clouds and, while there can be a shower at just about any point....the rain is most likely later this afternoon into tonight. 15 hour simulated radar:
There is an outside chance for a stray thunderstorm this afternoon.Temperatures today are tricky. The potential is there for 75-77 degrees if the radar never fills in this afternoon. More clouds and showers=highs in lower 70s.
Total rainfall through Friday, according to the latest models:
After that, a shot of cooler air for midweek.
