Monday (8/15) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Some much-needed rain over the weekend and more in on the way today. Watching a complex of rain with thunder to our southwest this morning:
Thunderstorms are not all that likely here but it does look like we will get a period of steady rain during the midday and afternoon hours. Futurecast:
Our temperature rise will get short circuited by the rain so we should stay in the 70s today.
TUESDAY: STORMY?
A very weak cold front will limp across the Valley Tuesday and while it does not have much "punch" it will be a trigger for spotty thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has the region in a "Marginal" risk for severe weather. Meaning...a low chance but certainly not a "zero" chance.
REST OF WEEK
The rest of the work week will be quieter....just warm and humid. Low-end chances for showers and storms Wednesday-Friday. Juicy air mass but not much of a trigger.
PATTERN CHANGE
The pattern will finally feature a return of less humid air and more comfortable temperatures in about a week. After a Saturday that should be warm and dry, Sunday could be unsettled with a cold front swinging across:
Behind that front, the models have been consistent in showing a stretch of weather that, while not "cool" will certainly be more comfortable than the first 3 weeks of August.
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It may come as a surprise, but July will go into the record books as WETTER than average. Huh?? My lawn is still really brown. Well the last couple of days of the month brought slow-moving thunderstorms with tropical downpours, at that jacked up the rain totals in many spots...including the airport. Final numbers:
Yes, the airport was one of the wetter spots. With over 1.5" of rain in the last 3 days, my house in Boardman had 4.1" for the month. Some were not so lucky. Overall rain compared to average in July shows plenty of dry areas:
On to August! Today will be a warm and humid one although the afternoon will not be as sunny as the start. In fact, a weak disturbance aloft may trigger a sprinkle or shower in one or two spots this afternoon.
Notice the lower dewpoints to our north and west....we'll get in on some of that drier air tomorrow. Not a huge change but dewpoints near 60 is better than near 70.
That cold front approaching on Friday is likely to bring showers and storms late in the day and at night.Temperatures will retreat nicely just in time for the weekend. Temperature trends next 2 weeks on GFS/European models:
The higher-dewpoint air will begin seeping north Thursday and the end of the week will be muggy. Notice the upward trend on the short-term models over the next few days. Dewpoints:
Thursday looks rain-free for most of the day with only a small chance for a late-day shower.
Better chance to see some needed raindrops on Friday. The GFS (shown) is not particularly wet but some of the other modeling has a more active day....and I lean toward that idea.
We look for a good deal of sunshine today. Tomorrow looks warm and dry with sunshine as well. Highs tomorrow in the upper 80s.
Friday could be an active day but some model solutions keep most of the moisture to our south and east. The GFS is one of those models:
Temperature trend:
Over the last week, beneficial rains have fallen, but not everywhere. Northern areas have done better than the southern half of the WFMJ viewing area.
This morning, it is warm, very muggy and quiet. A weak cool front is just off to our west:
As that front comes east today we look for very spotty/hit or miss-type showers and storms during the midday and afternoon. The storms will NOT impact as many people as yesterday. 15 hour futurecast:
The severe weather risk is also lower than yesterday, but not zero. Any storm could get strong and gusty. The Storm Prediction Center has the Valley in the "Marginal" or low risk area today. Higher chances of severe weather to our south and east.
It will be very warm today, highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Heat Index values can be a few or handful of degrees above the air temperature.
The weekend will NOT be as hot as the one we just had!
We will NOT have high humidity today as the real juicy air will remain just off to our west. So while it will be hot, the Heat Index will not be much different than the air temperature.There are heavy storms across the Upper Midwest this morning:
Along with a huge area covered by heat warnings and advisories:
Those storms, along the leading edge of the blast furnace, will weaken today but may re-fire tonight as the warm front pushes east. There is some concern about heavy storms being in the vicinity early Friday morning, as depicted on the NAM model:
Will that be it for the day? It's possible, although I would not be surprised to see spotty additional storms firing up in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has the region in the Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow. Severe weather risks include damaging winds and large hail but the overall chances for storms that strong are, well, marginal.
The weekend looks dry with only a small chance for a thunderstorm late Sunday. Higher chances Sunday night into Monday with a sluggish cold front.
LONG RANGE
In the meantime, the high heat is parked over the Midwest, for now. Oodles of heat watches, warnings and advisories:
The heat dome will remain centered over that part of the country but some of that hot, moisture-laden air will come east, starting tomorrow. We expect highs near 90 tomorrow although the dewpoints won't crack 60 in most spots until tomorrow night.
There can also be a couple of heavy thunderstorms Friday, mainly in the afternoon. This cold front is very weak but is running into a very unstable air mass. The Storm Prediction Center has the region under a "marginal" risk for severe weather.
More seasonable air will return early next week.
Meanwhile, the heat is building in the middle of the country.
Wednesday will be about the same, just a couple of degrees warmer. Dewpoints stay pretty low.
The Thursday-Sunday stretch will be out hottest of the season so far and likely our hottest in FOUR years. We generally consider a heat wave to be 3 or more 90+ days in a row and that is in our Friday-Sunday forecast.
A weak cool front may get close enough to spark spotty thunderstorms on Friday.
The heat should peak on Saturday. Heat index values may approach 100.
Models are consistent in showing the heat retreating early next week....back to just "typical" late-July conditions for us. Warm and humid.
Spotty power outages remained at 8:50am:
What about the rest of the day??? We have been advertising a chance for strong/severe storms in the afternoon but it looks like that threat is lowering quickly. Hi-res modeling shows little or nothing this afternoon and evening:
We can't rule out a feisty storm this afternoon but the chances appear to be quite low. Staying quite muggy today.
On to today. A quiet morning and we are seeing increasing sunshine. It is warm and very humid again with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70.
That cold front over the Midwest is heading our way and as it approaches we can expect spotty thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon. The air mass is plenty warm and humid, good fuel for the storms. The upper-level "dynamics" are not overly impressive once again but as we saw last night it does not take much for storms to get strong/severe in this environment.The Storm Prediction Center has us on the "low" or "marginal" risk for severe weather, meaning it is not likely but can't be ruled out either.
15 hour futurecast:
I think the threat window is roughly 4-8pm. Have your StormTracker 21 app handy.
Highs today will be similar to yesterday, maybe a couple of degrees cooler.....but the dewpoints have skyrocketed since last evening so, when the sun is out, it will FEEL much more stifling than yesterday.
Very spotty, hit/miss thunderstorms are in the forecast for this afternoon and evening. 15 hour futurecast:
Tomorrow will feature a cold front heading our way and thunderstorms will fire in some spots, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Severe weather risk is low but not zero. Even in a non-severe storm there could be some torrential downpours. Lots of moisture to wring out of the atmosphere.
That warm front off to the west is the leading edge of VERY humid air (dewpoints near or above 70) that will be heading our way tomorrow.
With the approach of a cold front, there can be more numerous thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. The needed ingredients for severe weather in the upper levels of the atmosphere are not that impressive but some strong storms are certainly possible.
The Storm Prediction Center has the area in the "marginal" risk for severe weather.
At most official climate sites across the region rain totals have been 50-75% of average over the last 60 days and of course in some locations the deficits are even larger.Over the next 10 days, I DO think we will see more frequent rains but how much is a tough call. The GFS suggests 1.5"-2" will be a good average:
The European model is more stingy with 1" or so":
