Midday Thursday Snowstorm Update

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Overall, my thinking has not changed much on how this storm will evolve since yesterday. A changeover from rain to mixed precipitation to a little snow will occur tonight, but snow accumulations by daybreak will be pretty minor (coating to perhaps an inch). NAM Model snow accumulation by 7:00am:7asnowNot much will happen tomorrow morning. Snow will pick back up around midday/early afternoon and the worst part of the storm will be from mid-afternoon to very early evening. Snow accumulations will be in the 3-6 inch range, with many area north of I-80 closer to 3" and areas near Rt. 30 closer to 6".Latest NAM Model storm total accumulation map is fairly close to my ideas (probably somewhat too high on southern fringes):total Thanks as always for reading!Eric

Update on Late-Week Snow

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A very complicated storm will evolve across the eastern 2/3 of the country over the next couple of days and it will have a big impact on northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania.Here is the official WFMJ snow map, hot off the presses:forecastMost of this will fall during the afternoon Friday and early Friday evening. Snow will taper off and end later Friday night. In many places, this storm will NOT be as big of a snow producer as last week's....although in the northern part of the area (which did not get hot as hard last week) it will be comparable.One bit of "good" news: A fairly high percentage of this snow will fall when temperatures are near freezing.....during the day. That will make it easier for road crews to keep up, especially on the main roads. This storm will bring hefty amounts of ice to parts of the southern Plains and the Mississippi Valleys, as shown in the orange-colors on the midday Friday map:gfsfriDuring Thursday night around the Youngstown area, we will probably see a transition from rain to a mix of sleet and rain to a mix of snow and sleet to finally ALL snow. The mix may last a little longer toward the Rt. 30 corridor.A quick note about the cold next week: it is VERY unusual to see this kind of cold this early in the season. Here's a chart showing the number of days Youngstown has had a HIGH temperature at or below 20 degrees in early December since 1930. Has not happened often and the last time it occurred was in 1995.numberofdays

More Snow For the End of This Week

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The region got a healthy dumping of snow right before Thanksgiving, but much of that has melted in recent days (and what's left will be gone by Thursday). Here's the current snow depth (and this may be overestimating how much is actually left):depthBitterly cold air is reloading across Canada. Take a look at the temperatures at 9am Eastern this morning:currentThe leading edge of the cold is pushing into North Dakota and Montana, and it's all coming south and east in the next several days.Ahead of the cold....MILD air! Enjoy the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. It map be the last time we see those temperatures for quite some time.By Thursday night and Friday, moisture will line up along and behind the leading edge of the cold, and the result will be a variety of precipitation across the eastern half of the country...including an ugly ice storm in the Southern Plains:gfsfridayamAcross northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania, precipitation is likely to be (mostly) snow and may come in TWO waves. The first Thursday night and the second late Friday/Friday night. The first wave may feature a transition from rain to snow, while it should just be all snow late Friday/Friday night.How much? Here's a comparison of the European model (top) and the GFS model (bottom). They have a similar idea; heaviest snow in western/central Ohio, with lighter amounts north and east. gfseuroBased on this and other data, I am ready to put out a "first call" forecast of 2-4" for the WFMJ viewing area from Thursday night to Friday night. We will be adjusting this forecast as need be over the next couple of days.

November Review, December Preview!

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November 2013 is in the books, so let's review the month. The first half of the month had its' ups and downs, then...BIG PATTERN CHANGE! The second half of November was quite cold. Here's what happened each day:nov The stretch from November 20-30 was tied for the second coldest final 10 days of November on record in Youngstown:nov2030 What about November as a whole? It was quite a bit colder than average, but not in the Top 10 coldest since 1930. Here's how it compares to years past:novtempsThanks to the big storm last week, November 2013 will go down as a VERY snowy November. In fact, it's the FOURTH SNOWIEST since 1930:snowWhat about December??Well the first work week of the month will be quite a bit warmer than the end of November. Here's the temperature anomaly map for this week:days1-5 We will be a few degrees above average overall this week, which corresponds to highs in the 40s. We may even crack 50 once or twice before the week is out, Our snowpack is going to fade quickly. We will also be dealing with some raindrops on occasion.The middle of the month is likely to be closer to average overall. Some computer models suggest a warm Christmas week, but this far out.....we will take it with a big grain of salt.Finally, did you know we actually reach our EARLIEST sunset of the year tomorrow?? We do, and it stays at 4:54 for 11 days.....while the sunrise continues getting later.sunrisesunsetHave a good rest of the weekend!-Eric 

Does a Cold, Snowy November Mean a Cold, Snowy Winter?

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After this week's snowstorm and the unrelenting cold at the end of the month, November 2013 will go down as one of the coldest, snowiest Novembers on record in Youngstown. But, does this tell us anything about the upcoming Winter?Not much!I looked at the 4 snowiest Novembers in Youngstown since 1930 and then looked at how much snow fell in the December-March period following those Novembers.Following a very snowy November in 1950, the Winter of 1950-1951 was close to average:1950-1951November of 1967 was a snowy one. But the Winter of 1967-68 was not:1967-1968After a white November of 1971, the Winter was not bad:1971-72Only the Winter of 2008-09 had ABOVE average snowfall after a snowy November:2008-2009What about temperatures? This November will probably crack the Top 10 Novembers on record in Youngstown. Looking at the rest of the Top 10, less than HALF (4 out of 10) Winters were colder than average following a frigid November.Bottom line: don't read too much into this unusually wintry November. It does not necessarily mean we are in for a long, snowy Winter.-Eric 

Biggest November Snow Event in 42 Years in Youngstown

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I was crunching some numbers this evening and this will probably be the biggest snow event in Youngstown since 1971. Here is that month's weather statistics:1971snow About 14.5 inches of snow fell in the 21st and 22nd.This comes on the heels of the coldest November day since 1976 on Sunday! What a week. This morning's lows were the coldest since February:NWS Mesonet Observations Based on the latest data, our forecast of 5-10" for the majority of the WFMJ viewing area looks good this evening.Here's the latest NAM Model snow totals through daybreak Wednesday:namsnowThe purple color indicates more than 6 inches. During the day Wednesday, LAKE-EFFECT may add another few inches to this, especially north of I-80.Have a great evening!-Eric  

Update on the Weekend and Thanksgiving Week

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Before we get to the weekend, take a look at this evening's temperatures. This arctic front means business!currentOur forecast for the weekend looks to be on track. Saturday will bring highs in the 30s and afternoon/evening flurries.  The wind will make it feel like it is no higher than the 20s. Snow showers will be most common Saturday night as the true arctic air surges in. As far as accumulations, I think most of the WFMJ viewing area will get a coating to an inch. There can be up to a few inches in northern Trumbull and northern Mercer counties.I like to use something called the "Short Range Ensemble Forecast" model. Like all "ensemble" models, it is a model that is run several times, each time with it's initial conditions slightly tweaked. The tweaking of the initial conditions (temperature, humidity, etc) results in a different outcome each time. If the outcomes are not TOO different, it gives us more confidence in the forecast. If they are VERY different, it means that this will be a tough forecast and I should consider putting my head down for some quiet time.Here's the most recent SREF snow forecast for the Youngstown-Warren airport in southeast Trumbull County:NCEP SREF Plume ViewerThere are a few stragglers above 2", but most of the "members" are below 2" and the mean, or average, is 1". So, that jives pretty well with our forecast. Again, there could be more closer to the traditional NE Ohio/NW PA snowbelt.Wind chills Sunday will be in the teens in the afternoon and single digits in the morning and evening. Yuck.aint-nobody-got-time-for-thatWhat about that busy travel day right before Thanksgiving? There are some disagreements among the computer models when it comes to the East Coast. Traveling west? No weather worries. Heading east? Here's the deal. The European model (top left) has a pretty healthy snowstorm for the Northeast US, away from the coast. The Canadian model (upper right)  has a more "out to sea" idea. The American GFS model (bottom) keeps precipitation in the Southeast, then goes out to sea. What do II think?? I suspect the European idea will be closest to the truth.3modelsBottom Line: Whichever ends up being right, odds favor a quiet Wednesday and a quiet and cold Thanksgiving in the Youngstown area. Not traveling? Looks good.IF there is an East Coast storm, that may cause a chain reaction of travel delays at airports across the country, so keep that in mind if you are flying.The European, the snowiest model, has this kind of accumulation Tuesday night into Wednesday:snowtuenightwedOver a foot in parts of New England.As far as I am concerned, they can keep it!-Eric