BLOG: A Look Back and Ahead

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As we start a new month, I thought it would be a good time to examine some of the COLD, hard facts about the weather over the last few months, as well as take a look at the upcoming weather in both the short and long range.First of all, I SUSPECT (but am not ready to guarantee) that we are done with accumulating snow this season. With just over 89", we have had another above-average season and our 3rd snowiest winter on record:snowwI remain a bit skeptical of the records at the YNG airport. I would be willing to bet that NO other reporting station in the country has had their 4 snowiest winters on record ALL SINCE THE 2007-2008 winter. We have had some snowy winters to be sure....but really?Anyway, here is how the snow breaks down by month this season. January, no surprise, was the snowiest...but December and February were not far behind: snowchartThe first quarter of 2014 has been remarkably cold. In fact it has been the 2nd coldest opening 3 months of a year since 1930 in Youngstown: jantomarchIt's interesting that as cold as March was, it was NOT all that snowy! It was the 3rd coldest March on record, but with just 8", was actually the 31st LEAST snowy (or 53rd snowiest) March since 1930: compareOk, let's talk about the future. After a windy and warm afternoon today, we have several round of rain heading our way later Wednesday through Friday. The Indians' home opener Friday afternoon could have some problems. Here's the weather map at the start of the day: fridayThat approaching cold front will spark showers much of the day. There might even be a clap of thunder. Best chance for a period of dry weather to get the game in will be after sunset.Beyond Friday, we are going to head into a period of cooler-than-average weather for the weekend and early next week. Not COLD, but cool for early April. The pattern at 18,000 feet looks much like the pattern we had for most of winter. Ridge of high pressure in the West, trough of low pressure around the Great Lakes: 500nexttueBUT, that pattern won't get "locked in" like it did in winter. In fact, long-range models are suggesting that a more "zonal", west-to-east flow will take hold toward mid-month...keeping the cold locked up in Canada and in the Pacific Northwest. A weak high pressure ridge may try to develop over the Southeast, allowing mild air to make inroads. It is also a pattern that could lead to a lot of severe weather in the middle of the country. Here's NEXT Saturday: 500nextweekendSo, the departures from average look like this for days 5-10 (the coming weekend through early next week): days510But then, days 10-20, the middle of April, look like this: days1020Not a WARM pattern for Northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania, but not a cold one either. That warmth over the Southeast will visit more often, but cold to the north will win a few battles too.The latest CFS climate model for the moth of April suggests that when we look back at April a month from today, it will go in the record books as near or even slightly above average in our part of the country: aprilAfter 3 VERY cold month, an AVERAGE April sounds great!Just for fun, what about May? The same model paints a warm picture, although look at the cold pocket right around the Great Lakes, which of course are still partly ice-covered and will be slow to warm. People living close to the lake shores will frequently ask "where is Spring??" well into May as that cold water will have a big impact. may Thanks for reading and enjoy a beautiful Tuesday afternoon!Eric

ANIMATION: Watch the Atmosphere Cool

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One of the tools that is in every meteorologists' tool belt is what are called "atmospheric soundings" or "Skew-T diagrams". There show how the atmosphere is behaving as you go up. We can look at how the temperature and humidity levels change, how the wind speed and direction changes, how "unstable" the atmosphere is...and many other things.One of the primary reasons for looking at these in the cold season is to see what type of precipitation is likely to occur.Here is the forecast sounding early Saturday afternoon: 1The temperature is the red line. Ground level, where we are, is the bottom of the graph. The top of the graph is 30-40,000 feet, near where commercial jets fly. The numbers at the bottom are the temperatures in Celsius. Temperatures increase from left to right. The "0" or freezing line, is what we want to pay attention to. Notice the temperature is to the right, or warmer, than that freezing line from the ground up to several thousand feet. That means that whatever precipitation is falling is in the form of rain. because any precipitation that forms in the frozen air above that level will melt on the way down.To get snow, we need much more of the atmosphere to cool below freezing (O degrees Celsius). That's what will happen Saturday afternoon and evening. Watch what happens to the temperature in this animation (the clock is in the lower right):output_96389pThe temperature, the red line, keeps moving left until the entire atmosphere above our heads is below freezing by 6-7:00pm. So, there will likely be some snow toward the end of the day Saturday. Looks like a coating to an inch or two.Eric

BLOG: More Snow?? Wait, WHAT???

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We are starting a warming trend this morning that will take us into the day Friday. AND, it will probably be in the 60s Monday. So it is with great regret that I must blog about the possibility of snow Saturday into Saturday night.Here's the bottom line right up front: This forecast is very tricky right now and confidence is not high. I can see where we get no accumulating snow and I can see where we get a few inches. It's just too early, with too many variables, to have a higher degree of confidence this morning. Confidence in the forecast will grow this afternoon and tomorrow.So, here's a peek "behind the curtain". Here's why confidence is low.On Saturday morning, low pressure will approach from the southwest: ecmwfued---conus-60-C-mslpthkpcp_white6Precipitation should break out during the midday or afternoon across the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys.But what TYPE of precipitation? Probably a cold rain, but snow and/or mixed precipitation may be nearby to the west. Here's the NAM model precipitation snapshot in the afternoon: namtypeNotice the snow is pretty close by.As precipitation starts falling and the atmosphere cools, I think the odds of seeing snow go up as the day wears on. So, while it probably will not START as snow, a changeover to snow seems likely at some point. But, the system will be pulling away. How much moisture will be left when it is cold enough to snow?? That's a big question, and one I am not sure of the answer of.A look at some of the snow accumulation forecast on the most recent models:Last night's NAM had a very quick changeover and gives us a couple/few inches: nam The GFS: gfsohioNADA!The Canadian: canohioAn inch or two perhaps.The European: euroohioJust about nothing.In these tough forecast situations, "ensemble" models can be of great help. The "initial conditions" (temperature, wind, etc.) are tweaked many times and with each tweak the model is run again. If the tweaks result in very different outcomes, the forecast confidence is lower. If the outcomes are similar, you tend to be more confident.Anyway, here's the SREF ensemble model's snow forecast: srefThere are a couple of "stragglers" that give us 3-4", but most of the members of this model give us less than an inch. Many of the lines are clustered at ZERO. The average of all 21 members is a bit less than an inch.The European ensemble model odds of 1" or more of snow: eurooddsAbout 10-20%.Our friends at the National Weather Service are more bullish on accumulating snow here. Here's their probability forecast of more than 1" of snow: 1oddsWhat about 2" or more? 2oddsAnd finally, their odds of 4" or more: 4oddsMy suspicion is that these odds are too high. BUT, I am not ready to discount those ideas yet. We will see what this afternoon's models have to say. Right now I lean toward a minor snow accumulation, maybe a coating to an inch or two (still too much for late March!!), but as I said at the top....confidence is not high.Who wants to be a meteorologist??? Haha.Thanks for reading.Eric 

BLOG: Winter's Last Stand??

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Happy Sunday all,I am back from vacation and ready to talk warmth! But sadly....I have to talk about cold and snow. We are in the home stretch of March but it sure looks and feels like February today. Late-morning radar/satellite and temperatures tell the story: currentNationwide, it's very cold for a late-March day....with the exception of the Southwest and Deep South: tempsAside from the cold, the weather looks uneventful through Monday night across the region. On Tuesday, a strong Alberta Clipper-type system will cruise through the Ohio Valley on it's way to the East Coast. Here's the midday Tuesday map: NAMTUEYes, it will snow lightly at times on Tuesday, but given that it's going to be light, it's coming during the day, and it's late-March....I would not expect too many problems with this. Some coatings on non-paved surfaces look possible. Someone might even get an inch on their grass. This will be a bigger deal Tuesday into Tuesday night in the high elevations south and east of Pittsburgh: namsnowNotice another "bullseye" closer to the East Coast. This storm will rapidly strengthen offshore and may give coastal areas (especially in New England) a whopper of a wind and snow event. Yuck: CaptureEuropean model snow prediction is wicked for Boston and Cape Cod: ecmwf_tsnow_ne_18As for us, there are growing signs that this cold stretch (with some snow to boot) is likely to be Winter's Last Stand. Not to say it won't be cold at times in April...and we can even have the occasional snow. But this type of SUSTAINED cold, as much as 20 degrees below average at times, is not likely after the next few days. In other words, Spring is going to start winning a lot more of these battles.Relief comes late this week. Here's the current cold surge of air: eurotodayA re-enforcing shot Tuesday/Wednesday: eurowedThen...ahhhh, Thursday and Friday bring a pattern change: eurofriA brief cooldown is likely to be followed by a couple of days of mild weather as we exit March: euromonIs this a WARM pattern we are heading into??? No, I would not say that. I don't see a nice, long stretch of above-average temperatures coming anytime soon. What we are heading into is classic early Spring in Northeast Ohio: lots of back and forth, some mild days, some chilly days.....but probably not many EXTREMES on either end for a while. While it stinks that we likely won't see an early-season 80 anytime soon, after we get through the cold early this week we are likely to be done with days where the high does not get above freezing.I'll be back full force with social media postings, "Weather For Weather Geeks", and of course the TV forecast at 6&11 on Monday. See ya then!Eric

BLOG: Another Close Shave Sunday Night?

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The last couple of storms have avoided the Valley like the plague, spreading their heavier snows either north or south of the region. It seems like this has been an especially tricky Winter, with storms not "showing their hand" until the very last minute...leaving forecasters scratching their heads a bit.What about the next one? As I mentioned in my "Weather Geeks" video this afternoon, it seems likely to be a miss for us...*BUT* the last couple of storms seemed like they would produce more snow than they did, so will this one bring surprises too??As always, we will update the forecast over the weekend, so keep checking back. Here's the way it looks NOW:Low pressure will emerge from the Plains states and pick up some Gulf moisture as it heads east. By Sunday evening, it will be somewhere over the South. But where exactly? That's a very important question. The North American (NAM) model has it over eastern Tennessee, with high pressure over the western Great Lakes:nampressThe GFS (along with the European and Canadian) has a weaker storm, and farther south:gfspressThose models also have a stronger area of high pressure over the Lakes AND it is farther east. The location of that high will be very important. In that position, it will have more of a "blocking" effect....meaning the low will only make it so far to the north before it has to turn east. The NAM idea allows to the low to get farther north (and therefore, snow gets farther north).The result is a big difference in the snow prediction the NAM has vs. the other models.The NAM forecast: namsnowThat's a couple/few inches around Youngstown and a foot or so in SE Ohio and southern PA.THE GFS looks much different: gfssnowGiving the Valley nothing.The European: eurosnowNothing as well.The European Ensemble model odds of more than 1" of snow: PROBThat's less than 10% for most of NE Ohio/western PA, a bit higher odds south of 224.So, most of the current evidence suggests this storm is a miss for the Mahoning Valley. That said, as of Friday night, I am not ready to take it to the bank yet. I have seen too many last-minute "shenanigans" this Winter. Saturday should (hopefully) bring more certainty.-Eric