Quick June Review+Severe Weather Threat Today

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Good morning! After a couple of weeks of travel I am back today; could I ease back in with a quiet weather day?? Nooooooo. We will talk about the severe weather threat in just a second. First, a quick June review. In the temperature department, it was a warmer than average month. 2.5 degrees above average in fact.Would you believe that after the FRIGID start to 2014, June was our 3rd consecutive above average month?? Since April 1, Youngstown is 1.7 degrees above average. Not a bad turnaround. aprjuneWith several rounds of thunderstorms, June was a very wet month in much of the region.   totalsMost of these are rain gauges that have the capability of uploading their data to the internet.OK, on to the severe weather threat today. Thankfully the threat for severe weather across northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania will not be as high as it was last night to our west. Check out these storms around 11:30pm as the rolled east of Chicago into northern Indiana. On the right...Doppler Radar estimated wind speeds of 70-100 moph! lastnightNot surprisingly, there was lots of wind damage.While we do not expect a repeat of that, conditions are favorable for some nasty storms to form this afternoon. It is a VERY juicy airmass overhead. This morning's dewpoints: dewIt feels like Orlando.We have a potent trough of low pressure moving across the Upper Midwest today; it's causing uplift of that warm, very humid air: 500How unstable, or buoyant, will the air mas be this afternoon? Here's the latest hi-res model CAPE values (a measure of instability): 3pcapeThose are some pretty high values across the region.  So to review, we have the moisture in place, the air is free to rise and we have a "trigger" to help the air to lift. So what's gonna happen??I suspect the most active period is roughly from 3/4pm to 8/9pm. A quick tour of the latest HRRR model's "simulated" radar:3pm: 34pm: 45pm: 56pm: 67pm: 7Notice a couple of things. 1) The model suggests that the threat is highest south of I-80 or perhaps even 224. 2) It winds things down quickly well before sunset.  These are trends that we will be watching all midday/afternoon. If several consecutive model runs show these ideas, our confidence will increase.The Storm Prediction Center has the odds of a tornado at 2% (within 25 miles of any one spot): torHail and damaging wind ods are the same, 15% for the WFMJ viewing area: hailThese odds may need to be lowered in the northern part of our viewing area if these early morning model trends continue.Jess has you covered on 21 News at noon and I will be on tonight at 6 with the latest. As always, I will be posting all kinds of updates on Facebook and Twitter. Thanks for reading!Eric  

BLOG: Severe Weather Threat Today/Tonight

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Will try and keep this brief as the American Meteorological Society Conference on Broadcast Meteorology is getting underway this morning in beautiful, but COLD Lake Tahoe, CA.The atmosphere is going to be primed to produce some heavy thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. While the timing is not set in stone as I write this, we just have to be on our toes.How nasty things get this afternoon will probably depend on what happens with this line of storms west of Chicago (at 10:25 Eastern): 1020IF that holds together, it can be a problem for NE Ohio and western PA this afternoon...but I am not sure yet if it will. IF it fizzles, activity will likely be quite spotty...but any spotty storm could be quite nasty.The Storm Prediction Center odds for damaging winds is up to 30% (within 25 miles of any location) for much of the region this afternoon and tonight. Damaging winds and flooding are EASILY the 2 biggest concerns. windThat said, there can be hail as well. Odds of large hail within 25 miles of any location are about 15%: hailAn isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in any storm, but the odds are quite low, 2%: torIF this afternoon ends up not being particularly active, tonight could bring the most trouble. Latest hi-res models want to bring a nasty, bowing line of storms into Ohio after sunset. Here's the 10pm simulated radar: 10pmRemember, this is just a MODEL and may not have the right timing/ideas. Certainly our confidence in storm timing and impacts will increase throughout the day today. Thanks for reading!Eric

BLOG: Today's Severe Weather Threat

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After a benign start to the work week, the threat for some heavy, gusty storms returns to the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys today. The risk of storms will ramp up by mid to late afternoon. Things are quiet enough this morning. The current surface map (at 9am) shows low pressure to our west and a soupy air mass around the region. Check out the dewpoints: dewpress It's also fairly cloudy. And this is a GOOD thing. The more clouds, the less unstable the atmosphere will become. 9am visible satellite: vis Where the atmosphere was unstable enough, things got very bumpy yesterday with a lot of reports of wind damage from southern Ohio down into the Southeast: reportsNotice there may have been a weak tornado or two in southwest Indiana.Today, the threat shifts north and east as this system tracks in that direction. Not only will the atmosphere be moist enough to support big storms, but we will be in a favorable region for air parcels to lift. This is the 500 millibar chart, a look at the atmosphere at about 18,000 feet. Vorticity, or spin in the atmosphere is shown, along with the position of troughs and ridges. The Valley will be on the east side of a trough of low pressure; this is a zone that favors lift. 500 Here is the Storm Prediction Center outlook for today/tonight....the yellow area is the "enhanced" risk area: day1Let's talk about what "type" of severe weather is most likely. Remember, the definition of a severe thunderstorm is: a storm that produces either hail 1" in diameter or higher or winds of 58 mph or greater.  Here are the odds of a tornado within 25 miles of any location: torOdds are quite low in our area and higher to the southeast. Why? For one thing, the "wind shear", or the change in wind direction and/or speed with height in the atmosphere is higher there. Check out this afternoon's values: esrhPretty impressive along the Mason-Dixon line. What about hail? Here's the SPC hail odds: hailWhat is the most likely type of severe weather in the Youngstown area? Strong, damaging winds. Those odds are about 15% (within 25 miles of any location): windThis jives with this graphic that I put online last night and showed on 21 News at 11: myrisksHow much, if any, severe weather there will be will, again, greatly depend on how much sunshine there is before mid-afternoon. The latest HRRR short range model does not have the CAPE (instability) going through the roof here this afternoon, so it may be picking up on the clouds being tough to break: cape21zNotice the higher values to our southeast and west.Here is an animation of the "simulated" radar, based on the HRRR model, from 3pm-9pm. Notice activity will generally be moving from SW to NE: output_Ct5tIa So, bottom line, we have the CHANCE for severe weather from late afternoon into early evening. Not enough instability will mean thunderstorms will be more "garden variety" and less severe. We will see how the midday and early afternoon plays out.Reminder of our severe weather policy: Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will prompt us to "cut in" in commercial breaks on TV to bring you up to date. In the (unexpected) event of a Tornado Warning ANYWHERE in our viewing area, we will break in over programming. If it turns out to be a long-duration severe weather event, we will have streaming coverage on WFMJ.com, your smartphone and tablet.Also a reminder....Facebook STINKS in severe weather situations, since it "filters" many posts from "like" pages such as mine. Twitter is much better...no filtering!!Thanks for reading!Eric

BLOG: Midweek Severe Weather Threat

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Good morning!I have been mentioning on TV, in my "Weather Geek" videos and on social media that midweek could bring the threat for severe weather to the Valley. This post is an update on the threat....and it's generally good news.First of all, we do have the chance to pick up a shower and thunderstorm during the midday and afternoon today. A cold front is slicing into a warm and humid air mass. Radar/satellite and 9am dewpoints: currentThe odds of large hail in any storm are pretty low today, generally 5% or less (Storm Prediction Center forecast): hailThe threat for damaging winds is in that same general range here today: windNotice how much higher the chances for severe weather are to the west today and tonight. That's because a large complex of thunderstorms, known as a Mesoscale Convective System, is likely to form over the Plains this evening and then track east. Widespread wind damage, large hail and tornadoes will accompany that complex.What does that mean for northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania? Remember that front I showed entering the region today? It will settle to our south tonight, stalling out near the Ohio River. The farther south that front settles, the lower our chances are for severe weather on Wednesday.  North of the front, a more stable, drier air mass will become entrenched. Check out the dewpoint map for Wednesday afternoon: dewtomorrowDewpoints will have dropped into the 50s here, but they will be in the 70s along the Ohio River. Thunderstorms NEED moisture and will try to track toward areas of higher moisture.This map shows the SPC's odds for severe weather (within 25 miles of any location) Wednesday. Percentages are on the left side: day2Odds certainly are higher closer to the higher dewpoint air. It's easy to see where the higher "fuel" for the storms will be tomorrow by looking at CAPE values: cape18The instability is through the roof along the lower Ohio River Valley but NIL around Youngstown.Alright, so bottom line. I DO think it will rain across the Valley tomorrow, mainly in the afternoon. We will be in the northern fringes of that thunderstorm complex and it will be transporting quite a bit of rain east. This simulated radar, from 12am-2pm, seems reasonable. Notice the complex weakening as it runs into the more stable air: output_McVo61 Those are my thoughts this morning. STAY TUNED! As new information becomes available, these thoughts may change! The atmosphere is fickle.Thanks for reading,Eric