Archives — Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm's Blog

October has arrived and bot will we know it by the weekend! But first, let's put a bow on September 2014. How did the numbers shake out? A couple of things stand out. First of all, it was a dry month with only 51% of our average September rain. Temperature-wise? It ended up being EXACTLY average. The warmth at the end of the month balanced out the cool stretches we had earlier on.The rain that we had on the final day of the month did bump us down in the rankings for dry Septembers. With 1.90" it was the 22nd driest September on record in Youngstown: October begins quietly enough today with low clouds and fog breaking for some sun later. Temperatures will be close to or a bit above average. But BIG changes are heading our way. A warm, dry Thursday will be followed by a wet, windy Friday. Here's the simulated radar at 8am: Showers and storms should arrive in eastern Ohio and western PA by late morning and the afternoon will be wet. We MIGHT get a lot of the rain out of the way by football time but I would not bank on that at this point.This front is a pattern changer, at least temporarily. You can see the pattern evolving when looking at the position and strength of the jet stream. Here's the jet today: And Friday: Notice the sharpening trough in the Upper Midwest. This beast is making a beeline for us. By the weekend, the trough axis is right overhead: That just screams: COLD, WINDY AND RAW! If this were January, there would be hyperventilating about the POLAR VORTEX and we would be getting some nasty snow squalls with temperatures in the single digits in teens. WHEW. Thank goodness it's not January.Saturday will be nasty though with temperatures mainly in the 40s and a biting wind. If this were even just a few weeks from now, WET SNOWFLAKES would be something we would have to consider forecasting. But, not yet....too early.The chilly pattern holds through the first half of next week. Jet stream Tuesday: We do think that this cool snap will ease with perhaps a significant warm up during the latter portions of next week. Notice the pattern change by next Thursday, Oct 9: The core of the cold has retreated into the northern Plains and Canada. We might even get back in the 70s for a couple of days late next week into next weekend.What about October as a whole? It will be, as most Octobers are, a back and forth month as Summer tries to hang on but Winter barges into the US occasionally. Climate models have been showing the month as a whole will probably end up near or slightly warmer than average: And perhaps a touch wetter than average: Something we know FOR SURE: Whatever the weather brings, the averages drop quickly this month. Average highs go from 66 to 56 and lows are typically in the upper 30s by Halloween:The average first freeze/end of the growing season across the area? In a couple of weeks: And we will continue losing daylight rapidly: Thanks, as always, for reading!