BLOG: Mid Winter Review, A Look Ahead

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Meteorological Winter (the 3 coldest months of the year) is now half over. So far, not bad right?? Sure January has been colder than average but it has not been particularly snowy. Overall this season has been much less severe than last year. So, how about some stats to back this up??As always, all statistics are from the Youngstown-Warren Airport in Vienna.Here's the overall picture: 1sthalfNotice the temperature is about 1/2 a degree above average. This is thanks to the mild December. January has actually been quite a bit colder than average so far. Snow totals are below average for December-January, but our SEASONAL total of 27.5" is near average. Remember November was cold and snowy.How do the numbers stack up compared to recent years?Temperature wise, December 2014 and the 1st half of January 2014 have been milder than the previous winter but much colder than 2012-2013 and 2011-2012: 1995-1996 was the coldest 1st half of winter in recent memory.avetemps Snowfall has been about 1/2 of last December 1-January 15. It's been our driest opening to winter since 2006-2007:  totalsnow Taking a look at the lower 48 states so far this season, the cold has been most prominent in the Plains states: wintertodateBut January has been quite cold in much of the country: jantodateThe recent cold has increased the ice coverage on the Great Lakes dramatically, especially on Lake Erie: lakesiceNotice the only open water left is in this patch in the eastern end, where the water is quite deep: erieAs extreme as last January was at times, it's interesting that the snow cover nationwide is quite a bit more extensive compared to one year ago today.2015: currentdepth2014: depthlastyear So, what lies ahead?? Over the next week, a pretty "ho-hum" weather pattern for us. But, the jet stream will undergo amplification for the last week of January. This will result in more consistent cold for our region.The jet stream now: jetnowAnd 9-10 days from now: jetjan26Notice the building ridge south of Alaska. If that migrates east, it will force arctic air into much of the country east of the Rockies. The models have been advertising that for a while now. Temperature anomalies for the last week of the month on the GFS ensemble model: 1015day Will the cold be accompanied by snow storms? Much too early to say in regards to the last week of the month. Again, the next week or so looks pretty quiet snow wise.Thanks for reading!Eric 

BLOG+VIDEO: Ice, Snow, Harsh Cold Coming to Valley

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Winter! Where has it been? Not here since very late November. December was the 2nd least snowy on record in Youngstown and it was the 14th warmest December on record here. Well, we are about to pay the price. Here's a web video that has all the details. If you like a more technical weather discussion, check out "Weather For Weather Geeks".http://youtu.be/X7O84-tRIhQ If you would rather not watch the video, here's a few highlights:1) A Few Hours of Freezing Rain Saturday Morning. satamBy early afternoon, we'll be above freezing. A very soggy afternoon! satpmYour travel plans can be impacted by ice, rain and snow over the next few days: travelThe freezing rain will be a minor problem here but more of a problem in west-central PA: icepa2) An "Alberta Clipper"-type System Will Bring Snow Tuesday. snowInitial snow estimate is 2-4 inches Tuesday. There can be additional accumulations Wednesday with lake-effect, especially north of I-80.3) Harsh Wind and Cold Wednesday into Thursday. wedschillthurschill

BLOG: Weather in 2014 in Youngstown Area; A Look at January 2015

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Happy New Year all!!! As you know, I love statistics, charts, graphs, maps, etc. So it's a no-brainer that I would do a "year in review" about our weather in 2014. Let's start with the "top stories" of the year for our area.1) EF-1 Tornado in Ellsworth Township on July 8It was a wild afternoon of weather and this tornado caused structural damage to parts of Ellsworth Township and the Canfield area. The twister tracked for nearly 5 miles with a maximum width of 800 yards and estimated wind speed of 90 mph. damagehook2) Coldest Weather in 20 Years in January It had been since 1994 that we had cold this severe. Wind chills were as low as -25 or so a couple of mornings. The worst of the cold occurred in 2 separate waves, one early in the month and one toward the end of January. janWe were not alone, as much of eastern North America had an extreme month: january 3) Unusually cool weather in mid-Summer; highs in the 60s several days in JulyMany were asking "what happened to Summer??" julystatsAgain, we were not alone: july4) Early season cold and snow in November"Here we go again" was a popular refrain as last Winter was still fresh in everyone's minds.  A high of 18 in mid-November (after several inches of snow) is pretty extreme! nov 5) 2nd least snowy December on record; mild as wellAfter a cold, snowy November, December was a dud! Pacific air dominated the pattern and less than 1" of snow was recorded in Youngstown. Snow lovers and those who depend on snow to make a living were not happy.Let's dive into some other statistics for 2014.The year in temperatures: One record high was set in 2014; it was on October 28. yeargraphAn overview of the year in temperatures and precipitation: 201420142How did 2014 stack up against history?? It was a cold year, in fact the coldest since 1996: 2014tempranksSnow-wise, nothing remarkable....a snowier December would have made for a different story. 2014snowranksOverall precipitation was very close to average and nearly identical to 2013: 2014precipranksLooking globally for a second, have a look at who had a warm and cold 2014: yeartodateWHEN WILL IT SNOW AGAIN??? WILL JANUARY BE COLD??Let's look ahead to what the next few week have in store. It's cold out now, but a weekend warm up is coming with rain. AFTER that though, the pattern will turn cold for a handful of days. Here's the jet stream next Wednesday: jetwednesdayNotice the ridge on the West Coast and Alaska. The air over our region will have originated over the Arctic Circle (follow the lines over Ohio NE into Canada and into the Arctic.) This will result in a couple of days where temperatures may not get out of the teens: imageControlWill it come with snow? Maybe. There will certainly be at least some flurries around at times next week as the Great Lakes will interact with the frigid air. I think the best chance of a "general" snow will be with a "clipper" system on Tuesday, as shown on the GFS model: gfstuesdayIt's much too early to speculate on accumulations from a storm that could track far enough away that we get nothing. But, clippers that take favorable tracks are capable of producing enough snow to shovel and plow.The cold pattern is likely to ease fairly quickly by mid-month. The pattern shown here around the 13th is not a cold one: jan13There are signals that the last 1/3 of January and all of February will be the "heart" of Winter with the most opportunities for snow and harsh cold in Ohio and Pennsylvania.Thanks for reading!Eric