THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Morning! Today is the grand Finale of Fall Preview 2015. Clouds will win the battle again today although there may be a few more peeks of sun than yesterday. 9:15am satellite:GOES13002015239SDxdj0Highs will be no better than 69-70 today, still way below average.highstodayFRIDAY AND SATURDAY: Finally, Summer is back! We will have some sunshine and highs back to where they should be in late August.hightomorrowSUNDAY: A weak disturbance will track into the region so we have the chance of seeing spotty showers and thunderstorms. Most will stay dry.SUNDAYNEXT WEEK:The big stories will be the continuation of the dry weather and the increase in heat and humidity. Highs will be in the 80s nearly every day and as we head toward the holiday weekend a 90+ day or 2 may be possible.714Upper pattern by next weekend looks like it will support some big heat.500fridayTROPICAL STORM ERIKA:Will continue giving forecasters headaches, perhaps for a long time. Last night's models were a bit "all over the place" with the general idea being that Erika will strengthen over or near the Bahamas and then head north. Stay tuned on this one, Erika's end game is very uncertain.ERIKA

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!Tuesday's high of 67 was a tie for the coolest high temperature on record for August 25 in Youngstown. Today? Not much different!Although showers are confined to the snow belt this morning, a sprinkle or shower may sneak into the viewing area on occasion today.now15 hour futurecast:hrrr_2015082611_ref_clevelandHighs will be quite similar to yesterday; a good dozen degrees below average.highstodayTHURSDAY:The atmosphere will try to brighten Thursday afternoon but it may be a struggle. Temperatures no higher than the lower 70s.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND:This is when things turn around. The upper low will fill in and move away from southern Ontario and that will allow summer to return. Highs 80-84 with the only chance for rain coming Sunday and that will just be a spotty shower or storm.LONG RANGE: The heat is on next week! Look at how the pattern changes between now and late next week. Basically a reversal of the pattern across the low 48. The west will turn cool under a trough and a ridge will bring the warmth to the east.500now500nextfriBy Tuesday highs will be in the mid 80s:highstueAnd the pattern will likely hold through the Labor Day holiday weekend/Canfield Fair:16dayTROPICS:Erika will intensify as we head into the weekend and could be a significant problem for parts of the Bahamas. Concern is starting to grow that SE Florida could be impacted but confidence in the track decreases quickly as we get into Sunday/Monday. Stay tuned!115459W5_NL_sm

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning all,After a comfortable night it is a fine August morning across the Valley with a mix of sunshine and clouds. From a distance, the weather map looks benign this morning:nowBut upon closer inspection, we have lake effect RAIN ongoing east of Cleveland:RADARThis is the same process that creates lake effect snow in the winter. Cool air is blowing over warm water, leading to uplift, which leads to clouds and precipitation. The air "upstairs" is VERY cool for August, all thanks to the big upper low sitting over the northern Great Lakes:500That low will continue to drive chilly Canadian air southward over the next couple of days. Highs today will not be much better than 71 or so:day1Those lake effect showers might try to clip far northern Trumbull County but the rest of the region will stay dry today. The sky will look like October this afternoon as it will be cloudier than this morning.WEDNESDAY: Even cooler than today as it will be cloudier. Any sunshine early will be "self destruct sunshine"....what's that? That's what I like to call these situations where the air aloft is so cold that clouds form very easily. The sun heats the ground which causes the air above the ground to become buoyant. As that air rises it cools to it's dewpoint (reaches saturation) and clouds form. These clouds form much more quickly when the air aloft is super cool.A shower or two can fall out of these clouds Wednesday. Grabbing the umbrella is not a bad idea.day2THURSDAY: Similar to Wednesday with a smaller chance for a sprinkle/shower. More in the way of afternoon sunshine too.day3FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A warming trend. Friday looks beautiful with a chilly start and then highs in the upper 70s. The weekend will bring highs between 80-84. Small chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Sunday.Very dry over the next 5 days; really tomorrow's spotty showers should about do it for any rain.QPFLONG RANGE: Still on track for a warm period as we head toward Labor Day. 16 day numbers off the GFS ensemble model:16dayTROPICS: Tropical Storm Erika could become a hurricane as it tracks west-northwest...possibly impacting the Bahamas over the weekend. Effects on the US are not clear yet but it's possible that it scrapes the Southeast next week.ERIKA

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)TODAY: Cold front moved through with little fanfare last night; the airport picked up a trace of rain. The rest of today looks beautiful with some sunshine and comfortable air. After a warm night last night, tonight will be more like Friday and Saturday nights with lows in the lower 50s. Current surface map:monamTUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: The weather pattern will be unusual for late August...more like late-September! A large, powerful trough of low pressure will park over the northern Great Lakes. This will steer cool, Canadian air into the region.500TUESHigh temperatures will closer to the average for September 21. Highs today through Thursday:highstoday   highstuehighswedshighsthursWith all that cold air above our heads under the trough, a passing shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled out, especially on Wednesday. Otherwise, DRY is the name of the game. Rain totals through Friday night will be zero or at most a couple of hundredths of an inch.rainthisweekLONG RANGE: I have been preaching this for a while, but summer is NOT OVER. Pools and air conditioners will be used again before you know it. Warmer-than-average air is likely to return by late in the weekend and early next week. 16 day numbers off the GFS ensemble model:16dayAnd September is likely to be warmer-than-average as a whole. The climate models have been advertising that for a while.septMore on all these topics this evening on "Weather For Weather Geeks"!

SUNDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning! Another beautiful day today with warmer temperatures as well. We will get into the lower 80s this afternoon but with dewpoints in the 50s it will remain comfortable.A cold front is tracking our way; it's across the Midwest now.nowThe front can bring some showers tonight, mainly in the wee hours. Outside chance for a thunderstorm.2amMost, if not all of these will be gone by daybreak Monday.WORK WEEK PREVIEWWow what a week this will be; absolute perfection if your child is starting school. Cool, dry mornings and very comfortable late-September-ish afternoons. High temperatures Tuesday:highstueOnly around 70 or so. Wednesday and Thursday will be similar. Summer is NOT over though as warm air is set to make a comeback as we transition into September.16dayIt could be very warm to hot for Labor Day weekend/Canfield Fair.Have a great Sunday!

FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning and TGIF.....Sensational weather today through the weekend with a big dome of high pressure in control. This morning's surface map:NOWHighs today in the mid 70s with very low dewpoints. Just about perfect in my book.highstodayThe weekend will feature a warmup as we get near 80 Saturday and a few higher than that Sunday. The next chance for rain will be Sunday night and first thing Monday morning.NEXT WEEK: A very dry and pleasant stretch of weather will unfold for the final week of August. For those starting school, this will be perfect. The middle of the week will be a real mid-September preview with highs only in the lower 70s. The upper pattern will look much like the winter did with a big trough over SE Canada and the Great Lakes and a big ridge out west.500Summer is not over though; warmer air will come back at the very end of the month and into early September. 16 day temperatures off the GFS ensemble model:KYNG_2015082100_min_max_16It will be a great pattern but we need more rain. Rain totals over the next 10 days are likely to be 0.10" or less! And all that may come Sunday night. There probably will not be a drop after that through next weekend.GFSRAINNot good since we are now in the "abnormally dry" category on the latest drought monitor.droughtHave a great weekend!

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning,Cold front is on our doorstep this morning and the air behind will feel a lot different. Conditions at 8:25am:noqShowers will be around through 1-2 pm and there may be a few thunderstorms to be found as well. 15 hour futurecast :hrrr_2015082010_ref_clevelandLook at that dry air coming in later today...will feel great.output_WBiAePThunderstorm chances will be highest to the east and there is an outside chance of severe weather east of I-79.day1FRIDAY AND WEEKEND: Perfection! Highs in 70s to 80 or so with low humidity. Can be some clouds on Friday but lots of sunshine for the weekend. Enjoy.MONDAY: Next front might bring a shower or storm, mainly in the morning.LONG RANGE: Comfortable and dry for the middle of next week. Pattern favors warmer weather for the end of next week through at least the end of the month and perhaps early September.

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning! The weather map across the eastern 2/3 of the country is dominated by a strong area of low pressure in the Upper Midwest, with a cold front trailing south of it:NOWThat is the cold front that will arrive here tomorrow. As for TODAY, it's going to be pretty stifling. Highs around 87 degrees with dewpoints in the upper 60s means the Heat Index will be 90 or so this afternoon:HIThere is not much of a "trigger" for thunderstorms in eastern Ohio and western PA today so activity will be pretty sparse this afternoon. Only a 20-30% chance that your backyard sees raindrops.6pmSevere weather is very unlikely here but there can be some strong to severe storms to our west and northwest:DAY1THURSDAY: The cold front will come through at an unfavorable time of day for strong storms but there can certainly be some tropical downpours in spots. Highest risk for rain will be from mid-morning through early afternoon.1PTHURSDewpoints will stay elevated until late afternoon, when they will start dropping.....leading to a pleasant evening and much more comfortable weather overnight.FRIDAY/WEEKEND: Just about perfect of you have outdoor plans. Sunshine, some fair-weather clouds and a distinct lack of humidity. The nights will be comfortable as well. Enjoy!LONG RANGE: A cool front is likely to arrive Monday but will not produce much rain. Behind that front, another cooler air mass will be here for a couple of days. Then, the pattern will favor above-average temperatures for the rest of the month and probably into Labor Day weekend.KYNG_2015081900_min_max_16

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING AUGUST 18

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(Click pictures to enlarge)Good morning! I back at it after a 3 day weekend. Woke up to the sound of thunder for the first time in....who knows how long. Of course, I could have stayed in bed and relaxed to the sound of raindrops but no, of course I sprang out of bed to check the radar and make sure we were not getting severe weather. Ah the life of a meteorologist.The blob of rain brought some beneficial water to many lawns. Had about 1/3" at my house in Boardman. Radar at 8:15am:DMARadarWhat about the rest of today? As this disturbance moves away, we will get back into the some sunshine and it will be warm and quite humid.NOWThere might be a pop-up shower or storm this afternoon and evening but the coverage will be pretty small. 4pm simulated radar:4pWEDNESDAY: Will feel like on Orlando afternoon with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints near 70. Thunderstorm chances will be pretty small, probably 20-30%. Heat Index 90 or so:gfs_hindex_cleveland_7Cold front will approach Wednesday night. Ahead of it, there is a marginal risk for severe weather (mainly during day Wednesday) in much of western and central Ohio:DAY2THURSDAY: Cold front will roll through and showers and thunderstorms are likely....perhaps mostly in the morning. Timing does not look favorable for stronger storms but if things get going slower we may have to worry about strong/severe storms, mainly in western PA.FRIDAY/WEEKEND: The front will be a "clean sweep", in other words a distinct air mass change will occur behind it. MUCH less humid Friday and over the weekend. Sprawling high pressure will bring sunshine. Should be a great weekend! Warm Sunday.gfs_ptype_slp_ma_14

FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING AUGUST 14

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TGIF! Yesterday was a seasonable day with a high of 79 and today looks warmer. Highs between 83-85 today with sunshine and some fair-weather clouds. Dewpoints will be near 60 much of the day so it will not be excessively humid.TONIGHT/SATURDAY: A cold front will sputter into the Valley and basically just wash out (cease to become a boundary between 2 air masses). Still, it might bring a shower or storm to a fraction of the area overnight and during the day Saturday. Saturday will be farrrr from a washout though...overall a classic August day. Dewpoints come up into the mid 60s.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_2nam8aSUNDAY AND MONDAY: HOT!! Find a pool and/or air conditioning. Highs will be in the upper 80s to, in some spots, 90. Sunday will be a dry and mostly sunny day...there is a small chance for an afternoon and evening storm Monday.LONG RANGE: The last two weeks of August may feature the longest stretch of sustained heat of the summer. Lots of highs between 83-88 degrees and maybe a few 90 degree days.

WEATHER BRIEFING THURSDAY AUGUST 13

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TODAY: Sensational weather today as high pressure drifts across. Low dewpoints and seasonable temperatures.nowPERSEID METEOR SHOWER:The peak was last night but with a clear sky tonight you will be able to see some again. Find a dark spot and give your eyes time to adjust. Best viewing will be after midnight.pFRIDAY: Another nice day with temperatures warming into the 80s. If a shower or storm occurs it would be late in the day, toward sunset. Higher chance of rain overnight as a front stalls over northern Ohio and PA.WEEKEND: Mid 80s Saturday with a small chance for a shower or storm. Most of the day will be rain-free. Humidity creeping up. Sunday will be a hot and dry one with highs near 90 and sunshine. Find a pool!EARLY NEXT WEEK: Hot again Monday; upper 80s for highs. Next front could bring storms Tuesday. Could be strong storms if the timing is right.LONG RANGE: Warmer than average pattern seems likely through the end of the month and maybe early September. GFS 8-16 day outlook:816