TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)TODAYWet! Our rain is on schedule and will be here much of the day. After mid-afternoon it will probably not be much more than spotty showers or drizzle.84015 hour futurecast:hrrr_2015111012_ref_clevelandWEDNESDAY: Wednesday will start with clouds but the afternoon should be nicer with some sunshine and milder temperatures. Highs in the mid 50s.wedsMeanwhile, severe weather will be a problem out in the Mississippi Valley:DAY2THURSDAY: Severe thunderstorms will not be a problem as the cold front swings through our area....but Thursday will be a windy day. Showers will occur before daybreak and a spotty shower is possible during the daylight hours but the big story will be the wind. Especially in the afternoon, there could be gusts to 40 mph or so.thursTHURWINDFRIDAY:Blustery and chilly this day and with a secondary front pivoting across the lakes there may be a shower before the day is through. VERY chilly and gusty winds for high school football playoff action.frieveThere can be snow flurries/snow showers Friday night and early Saturday. Maybe even a dusting on non-paved surfaces north of I-80....especially in Mercer County.satamA chilly start to the weekend with highs in the lower and middle 40s.SUNDAY: This will be the better half of the weekend with sunshine and nicer afternoon temperatures.sunLONG RANGE: Nice warming trend early next week. No sustained cold expected for the rest of November. Just 1-2 day shots of chilly/cold air, then it moves away.KYNG_2015111000_min_max_16THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: 13 years ago today, a tornado outbreak occurred in parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Locally, an F2 tornado ripped across Mercer County. Unfortunately there was 1 fatality.tornadoWEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. This evening's video will go deeper in the meteorology behind the big storm moving across the Great Lakes this week and how it will impact us. Plus much more!2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: Streak is up to 6 days after Jess nailed yesterday's forecast. CalendarCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning and happy Monday,After a pretty tranquil weekend, it will be a busy weather week across the Valley. A cold start to our day today with heavy frost. Some approximate lows this morning:11261209_529567050530276_909132025468769402_nAfter that cold start, we expect plenty of sunshine today (some high clouds late should make for a nice sunset).HIGHSMONNOWThe rain over the Southeast? Yeah, it's coming our way. This simulated radar shows the progress of the rain tonight and tomorrow:ezgif.com-video-to-gifThis will be a pretty healthy slug of rain, with the steadiest and heaviest occurring late tonight and tomorrow morning. Just a leftover shower or two for most of tomorrow afternoon.Rain totals: A variance in the models but I would expect an average of 0.50-0.75".ModelRainWEDNESDAY: A quiet day locally with some sunshine and mild temperatures. But a healthy low pressure system will be deepening across the middle of the country.wedspmWarm, moist air will be drawn northward and a very Spring-like clash of the air masses will occur, leading to a severe weather outbreak.DAY3THURSDAY: Luckily we do not have to worry about severe weather here. That said, Thursday will be a windy day with showers around, especially during the first half of the day.thursamWhile the strongest winds will be in western Ohio, we can still expect some gusts to 35-40 mph across the Valley.WINDTHURSLONG RANGE:In the wake of the cold front, a chilly end to the week (windy again Friday) and weekend. But the pattern does not support sustained periods of cold so we should see readings bouncing back up to average (and above) in the longer range.KYNG_2015110900_min_max_16THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: A very cold day 20 years ago today as the high on November 9, 1995 was only 32.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. This evening's video will go into more detail about tonight's rain and the windy late-week system. Also this evening: a check of the long-range models.2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: Streak is up to 5 days with successful weekend forecasts.CalendarCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Happy Friday Eve!The high has been 76 with a pristine sky over the last couple of days. Today will be slightly different but still great! We have more clouds than sun this morning but it is quite mild:nowI expect there to be more intervals of sun as we get into the midday and afternoon and that will allow temperatures to return to the 70s.THURSHIGHTEMPSThe country is dived in half by a cold front this morning and that front heads our way late tonight and tomorrow.nattempsFRIDAY'S RAIN:  Although measurable rain is likely to fall in most of the Valley Friday, it will be far from a washout. Most of the wet weather will be between 6am-1pm. Sequence of simulated radars:6am:6AFRIDAY9am:9AFRIDAYNoon:NOONFRI7pm:7PMFRIRainfall totals will likely average 0.20"-0.40", as shown on the SREF model:SREFLate in the morning as the cold front approached there might be a skinny line of thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center still has the region in a "marginal" risk for severe weather:DAY2I think the chance of thunder is decent but the chance for severe weather is quite low (but not zero). A damaging wind gust would be the main threat.We'll be chilly and dry for high school playoff action Friday evening.WEEKEND: Much cooler! Morning clouds and afternoon sun for Saturday with highs in the lower 50s.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_3Sunday will be bright and sunny but chilly. Highs near 50.LONG RANGE: Modest warming trend for the first half of next week with a cool down likely toward the end of the week.KYNG_2015110500_min_max_16THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: On this date in 1991, the temperature dropped to a record low of 13 degrees after reaching 14 the previous morning. Talk about an early season winter preview!WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. Look for more detail on Friday's rain and thunder threat and a look ahead at next week's weather makers.2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: Back on track yesterday although I thought we might break the record of 77.CalendarCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!You liked Tuesday? Well plan on a carbon copy today! Sunshine and highs in the mid 70s. The record high of 77 (set on 2003) will certainly be challenged and perhaps even broken.WEDSHIGHTEMPSThursday will be cloudier but still dry and warm with afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s.FRIDAY: Strong cold front will head our way and we will have showers, mainly between 9am-2pm.FRIMAPThere may be a thunderstorm and the Storm Prediction Center actually has the region under a "marginal" risk for severe weather. Damaging winds would be the main threat although any strong storms would be pretty isolated.FRIDAYSPCWEEKEND: Much cooler with temperatures n higher than the lower 50s. But it does look dry with some sunshine Saturday and a bright and sunny day is in store for Sunday.LONG RANGE: No 70s but a nice warm up early next week followed by more seasonable weather for a while after that.KYNG_2015110400_min_max_16THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: On this date in 1991, the temperature dropped to 14 degrees, a record for the date. Brrrr!WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. Look for detailed analysis of Friday's severe weather threat and a look at the ups and downs we can expect in min-November.2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: We missed yesterday but I didn't hear any complaints!CalendarCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!If you liked yesterday's sunny and 67 you will love today's wall-to-wall sun and 72 degrees. Not a record high but of course way above average! Remember from yesterday...only 3-4% of November days have a high above 70 in Youngstown so soak it in!TUESDAYHIGHSWEDNESDAY: Pretty much exactly the same!HIGHSWEDSNORTHERN LIGHTS: Once again tonight there is a small chance of catching the Aurora Borealis or Northern Lights. Small chance, but a chance nonetheless!NorthAmerica_612186536_527801264040188_2177664847906374894_oTHURSDAY: An increase in clouds this day but that will not stop temperatures from getting up to above 70 degrees in the afternoon.FRIDAY: This still looks like our wet day with a cold front tracking into the warm (and even somewhat humid) air mass. Showers can occur at any time.FRIDAYThere is even a chance for a thunderstorm Friday as there will be some instability in the atmosphere. One of the measures of instability is Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE. A few hundred joules of CAPE is enough to generate some thunder.CAPEWEEKEND: Much cooler over the weekend with highs near 50. Clouds and intervals of sunshine Saturday. A very small shower chance, mainly early. Sunday looks mostly sunny.LONG RANGE: After the weekend cool down, temperatures should rebound early next week.KYNG_2015110300_min_max_16THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY: Youngstown's warmest November day on record occurred on this date in 1961; was 80 degrees.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. We will have a look at the thunderstorm threat Friday and check in with the climate models, El Nino and other signals for the upcoming winter season.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(click images to enlarge)Good morning!What a week this will be! Temperatures WAY above average for early November and plenty of sunshine through Thursday.Highs today:day1We have a good shot at 70 tomorrow through Thursday. How unusual are 70s in November, you ask? Pretty unusual! Since 1930, just 3.4% of November days featured a high of 70 or above in Youngstown. We have not had a 70+ day in November since 2009! This in interesting since 2009-2010 was a winter that featured a moderate El Nino.nov70sWhy so mild? The jet stream has buckled, with a big trough out west and a big ridge popping up in the East.500mbWith this year's strong El Nino, we can expect patterns like this to happen with more frequency  this winter. Remember our Winter Forecast is a mild one.Also mild: Our November forecast.novoutlookThe warm weather will get pushed away by a cold font at the end of the week and we expect a windy, showery day Friday. Might even be some thunder.fridayLONG RANGE: After a cooler weekend, temperatures should spring back up to near or above average levels early next week. I suspect the numbers on this model on days 10-16 are probably too cool.KYNG_2015110200_min_max_16

FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)TGIF!As expected, it's a slate-gray overcast out there this morning and there is drizzle falling in many areas....especially from I-80 north.845Temperatures will struggle today....no better than the upper 40s. Will be dry this evening for high school football.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_1HALLOWEEN: Thickening clouds Saturday. Will "look" like rain but no worries! Trick-or-treaters will be dry with temperatures near 50.SATEVE12185215_526507017502946_8285171146733454898_oShowers will be around late Saturday night and first thing Sunday morning. Then cloudy to partly sunny Sunday afternoon.Next week: AWESOME. True Indian Summer. Sunshine Monday through Thursday.Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the lower 70s.HIGHSWEDS

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!The remnants of Patricia remain off to our south but that low pressure area is pushing north this morning. High pressure is losing it's grip on the Valley and clouds will win the battle today.NOWDespite the clouds, the rain will hold off until after dark. The wet weather is likely to arrive between 9pm-12am. Here's a wide shot of our high-res model's simulated radar:hrrrZoomed in closer to home, we can see the rain pushing in to some areas at 10pm:10pmRain will fall heavily at times overnight into Wednesday morning. The rain will become more scattered in nature for the afternoon Wednesday. Rainfall totals will average 1-1.5".qpfMake sure your gutters and storm drains are clear. This much rain can cause issues if they are clogged!leavesThe other issue overnight into Wednesday will be the wind. Up at 5,000 feet....the wind will be SCREAMING at 70-90 mph! Thankfully we don't live at 5,000 feet. But some of that wind energy can get pulled down to the surface, especially in heavier showers. So some gusts to 40 mph are a possibility.850WINDSWednesday afternoon, the cold front will swing through and there might be some thunderstorms along it. The highest risk for thunder will be to our east but even in the Valley it cannot be ruled out. Damaging winds are possible in any storms, mainly east of I-79:DAY2THURSDAY: Thursday will be a cooler day and gusty winds will still be a factor. We are not looking at much rain....a passing shower or two. Another round of showers is likely Thursday night.thursmapFRIDAY: Friday will start with clouds but we expect sunshine for the afternoon and a calm evening for football.frievemapWEEKEND: More in the way of clouds for Halloween, but what about rain? Models have been going back and forth on this. Our forecast is a dry one for now but keep checking back if you have evening trick-or-treat plans.satevemapThe chance for rain is higher for Sunday.Next week looks mild with at least a few days with highs in the 60s. Not a bad start to November!

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good Monday morning!We started off cold this morning with frost and temperatures near freezing in many places. This afternoon will be sunny and seasonable. One of the better days of the week!HIGHSMONDAYMeanwhile, the remnants of Patricia are sitting along the Gulf Coast this morning. As that low pulls north, it will merge with a "regular" area of low pressure, resulting in a pretty potent Fall storm moving through the Midwest.CURRENTTUESDAY: Clouds will thicken across the Valley on Tuesday but we will likely stay dry during the daylight hours. The rain will spread in from the south by evening and it will likely start raining in most pf the Valley between 8pm and midnight.TUESSFCWEDNESDAY: As the storm tracks to our west, it will be a windy and mild day but showers will be around....most numerous in the morning. Even though the rain will be most likely in the morning....there may be spotty thunderstorms around in the afternoon.wedssfcRainfall totals are likely to average abut an inch from Tuesday night through Wednesday. The SREF model, which now contains 26 "members" has an average of 1.2" with some members showing 1.5" or so:SREFTHURSDAY: Behind the cold front, a windy and chilly day Thursday with times of clouds and sun. A shower or two is possible. It will feel a good 15 degrees colder than Wednesday.thursfcFRIDAY:A better day! Chilly, yes...but nothing unusual for October 30. Will be dry for football in the evening and for any Halloween parties you may be off to!frievesfcHALLOWEEN: At this point, Saturday looks like a pretty good day for Halloween with some sun and highs in the 50s. Evening temperatures in the upper 40s.SUNDAY: At this early stage, it looks like Sunday will be the lousier half of the weekend with showers possible.sunsfcLONG RANGE: The pattern looks to favor some mild air as we head into November:KYNG_2015102600_min_max_16