THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good morning!Rain moved through overnight and it's still damp across the region this morning. The radar around 9am showed the steady rain pushing away:DMARadar.jpgRain totals were pretty modest.DMARain.jpgClouds will break for some sunshine from west to east during the midday and afternoon.ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gifTemperatures are as warm as they will be all day and we expect readings to be in the upper 30s by sunset.FRIDAY:  Cold! For a change. Chilly northwest winds, clouds and even a flurry or two. Will feel like......December.fri.pngndfd_t2max_cleveland_2.pngSATURDAY: Even colder! The lake-effect machine will fire up as the cold air blows over the warm Great Lakes. Snow will accumulate several inches in parts of NW PA and SW PA and even parts of NE Ohio.sat.pngwwandfd_snow_cleveland_10.pngSUNDAY: The cold air will get the boot after only visiting for a couple of days as a southwest wind develops. A nice afternoon with highs in the lower 40s.sun.pngNEXT WEEK: The warm up will continue! But there will also be rain at times Monday through Christmas Day.mon.pngTemperatures will soar to 60 or so by Wednesday and Thursday. Christmas Day MIGHT be colder but might also be quite warm....right now I like a compromise with a forecast of 50-55. Balmy!KYNG_2015121706_min_max_16.pngWEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: On this evening's video....much more on the lake-effect, travel weather in the days leading up to Christmas and an update on what the models are showing for Christmas Day. Plus....a look at the climate models for January. Will the warmth continue??  CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

Good morning!A cloudy start today but the low clouds will thin from south to north over the next several hours. There will be some high, thinner clouds mixed with the sun today but overall a nice afternoon! We'll get back into the lower and mid 50s.ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gifTHURSDAY: Cold font will slowly roll through and rain will be here in the morning and midday hours. Should see clearing from west to east in the early and mid afternoon.thursrad.pngModelRain.jpgTemperatures should start to fall after a midday high.FRIDAY/SATURDAY: December! Cold! Wind! Even some snow! How about that. Friday will feature some flurries here and there with highs a bit above freezing. Lake-effect snow will accumulate several inches in the primary snow belt of far NE Ohio, NW PA  and SW NY into Saturday. Do not think this is enough to shovel in our viewing area.fridaysfcc.pngsatsfccsathightemps.pngSUNDAY/EARLY  NEXT WEEK: The mild air will make a big time comeback. After a nice Sunday, there can be some showers Monday. LONG RANGE/CHRISTMAS: Some serious warmth is very likely as we head toward Christmas, although Christmas Day may be cooler.Christmas Eve/Christmas Day breakdown as it stands now:High Confidence: -Temperatures will be WAY above average Christmas Eve. 60 or so is possible.-There will not be snow.-There will be rain at times from the 23rd through Christmas Eve.Medium Confidence: -While there will be rain at times, not sure yet when it is MOST likely.Low Confidence: -A cold front may usher in "less warm" air for Christmas Day, knocking temps back into the 40s. But it could still be in the 50s too. Lots of model disagreement right now.Don't rely on a crappy smartphone weather app for your long-range Christmas outlook, in which the forecasts are 1) computer generated and 2) based on one run of one model.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: On this evening's video, we'll re-examine the Christmas weather setup with fresh models and all that good stuff. Also, a look at travel conditions for this coming weekend...which will be very busy at the malls and on the roads!2 Degree Guarantee: The temperature wasn't expected to rise much yesterday but it didn't rise AT ALL! Come on atmosphere, give us ONE degree!Calendar.jpgCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

Good Tuesday morning,After a weekend of record temperatures and a tie of the record high yesterday, today will be kind of "ho hum" with lots of clouds. Sure, it will be cooler but still 10 degrees above average!GOES13302015349Xm8NBc.jpgday1hi.pngWEDNESDAY: The day probably starts with some clouds but I think the afternoon will be very nice with some sunshine, a southwest wind and temperatures making it into the 50s. Enjoy!wednesdayy.pngTHURSDAY: The next cold front will arrive late Wednesday night and Thursday morning and we expect some showers with it. Most of the rain will probably be before noon Thursday. Temperatures may fall after a midday high.thurs.pngFRIDAY/SATURDAY: Well well well. Hi December! Nice to see you finally. Cold air will set up shop for a couple of days an it will be accompanied by some wind as well. Flurries will fly Friday, mainly in the afternoon. The lake-effect snow machine will eventually fire up and should drop several inches of powder in the snow belts of NE Ohio, NW PA and SW NY.fri.pngsat.pngIn the WFMJ viewing area, I would not expect much out of this. As is typical in these types of lake-effect events, far northern Trumbull and Mercer counties have the best chance of getting enough snow to measure.gfs_6hr_snow_acc_ma_22.pngLONG RANGE/CHRISTMAS: Temperatures will start to rebound as early as Sunday. Then the air mass will REALLY warm as we get into next week.Christmas Eve/Christmas Day breakdown as it stands now:High Confidence: -Temperatures will be above average. Even WAY above average.-There will not be snow.Medium Confidence: -There will be rain sometime in the 12/23 to 12/25 period.Low Confidence: -Not sure about record warmth yet.-Not sure of the timing of rain/which days it is most likely.-The warmth may actually peak on Christmas Eve with Christmas Day turning somewhat cooler.Don't rely on a crappy smartphone weather app for your long-range Christmas outlook, in which the forecasts are 1) computer generated and 2) based on one run of one model.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: On this evening's video, I plan on taking a deeper dive into the lake-effect set up late this week into Saturday (lots of people on the roads Saturday!). And of course, look for more analysis of the potential warm and wet Christmas in the Valley.  All on the Valley's most in-depth and geeky weather video! Look for it by 8:00pm.2 Degree Guarantee: Quick correction to the graphic: high was 62 yesterday. Still good enough for a green check. We need to add more of those checks, it has been a tough month for forecasters so far.CalendarCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

Good morning!After a remarkably warm weekend, today will turn wet but with record temperatures once again.nowsfc.pngIt's a strong low pressure area that is pushing across the Upper Midwest.natlsc.png15 hour futurecast shows the rain arriving around midday:hrrr_2015121412_ref_cleveland.gifWe can't even rule out a rumble of thunder this afternoon. Temperatures are already very warm this morning and the record high of 62 should fall easily today.daystodayy.pngAll the locations that are circled should break record highs today.recs.pngIt will also turn windy later today with some gusts to 40 mph or so possible.TUESDAY: In the wake of the cold front, it will be "cooler" tomorrow but still WAY above average! We look for clouds and breaks of sun.tuessfcc.pngday2.pngWEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: After a mild and tranquil Wednesday, a weak wave of low pressure and a cold front can bring a little rain Thursday.thurssurfc.pngFRIDAY/SATURDAY:FINALLY! It will feel like December for a couple of days. Gusty winds, clouds, and yes...some snow showers/flurries. Highs in the lower 30s. How about that!At this point I doubt we see much snow accumulation locally but there can be frisfcccc.pngsome in the snow belts.satsfcccc.pngLONG RANGE: Wow. We may do the current pattern AGAIN. There is a very strong signal for warmth on the models for Christmastime. Have a look at the numbers on the GFS ensemble model:KYNG_2015121406_min_max_16.pngAnd all the warmth across the eastern US:gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_51.pngOur warmest Christmas occurred during the warmest December on record, 1982. The high was 66. We may very well challenge that record this year.We will absolutely not have a White Christmas. Sorry snow lovers! WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: More on the cold shot that is on the way later this week on this evening's "Weather For Weather Geeks". We'll also look at how Christmas week will compare to Christmas 1982. (BTW, Christmas 1983 was our COLDEST on record) All on the Valley's most in-depth and geeky weather video! Look for it by 8:00pm.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

TGIF!Here comes the heat! First off, no records today but still a solid 20 degrees above average with highs in the upper 50s this afternoon. There will be a mix of sunshine and clouds.highssfriday1.pngTHE WEEKEND: A lot of low-level moisture around on Saturday and we can expect a little rain or just drizzle on a few occasions. The clouds and damp weather make it even more remarkable that we will see temperatures rising into the 60s.sfcsat.pnghighssatt.pngrecssat.pngOn Sunday, we will be well south of the warm front and the flood gates will be wide open to air that originated along the Gulf Coast. Our current forecast is 67 but I would not be shocked to see 68 or 69. The old record of 60 has NO chance of surviving!sfcssun.pnghighsssun.pngrecssun.pngBu the way the warmest December day on record:72, set on December 3, 1982. That December also featured our warmest Christmas Day on record, 66 degrees. December 1982 occurred in the middle of a strong El Nino....much like this year. Warmest December days in Youngstown:recwarmMONDAY: Pretty strong low pressure will cross the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front through the Valley in the morning. Showers will be most numerous early but the wind will howl all day. There can be some gusts to 45 mph or so. There is also a chance for a morning thunderstorm!sfcmon.pnggustsmon.pngLONG RANGE: It won't be AS warm Tuesday and Wednesday but still well above average. We do think that there will be *actual* December weather for about 2-3 days at the end of next week and early in the weekend. Can have some highs in the 30s and some snow showers.KYNG_2015121106_min_max_16.pngIt will be a brief shot though as the week of Christmas is looking ABOVE average once again...making our chances of a white Christmas pretty low. 2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: Have been stinking up the joint lately. These abnormal patterns are tough and cloud cover is often the key. If it's a bit sunnier than expected, the temperature can jump suddenly. If it's a bit too cloudy, your warm forecast can bust.Calendar.jpg WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: I plan on talking about Monday's situation in more detail in tonight's video....plus a more thorough breakdown of the up and down pattern that will take hold during the final week before Christmas. All on the Valley's most in-depth and geeky weather video! Look for it by 8:00pm.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

Good morning!Had some issues with black ice in Mercer County, PA this morning; there was likely some very shallow fog around that led to moisture freezing on surfaces.Today is off to a fairly sunny start but we expect more clouds later as a weak system track our way.thisamThis thing is moisture-starved so there won't be much rain with it....a shower here and there and maybe not much more than sprinkles in spots. This will be late this afternoon and this evening. 15 hour futurecast:hrrr_2015120913_ref_cleveland.gifHighs today will be warmer than yesterday and a good dozen degrees above average.todayshighs.pngTHURSDAY AND FRIDAY: A couple of uneventful days to close out the work week. The big story will be the temperatures, which despite a weak sun angle and some clouds will be WAY above average.thurshightempss.pngFriday's record high of 61 is probably safe but we may try to get within a few degrees of it.THE WEEKEND: What's remarkable about Saturday is that it should be dead overcast, will rain some and we will STILL be near or above a record high! The record high is 60 Saturday. A warm front could bring drizzle/spotty showers, especially in the morning and midday hours.satsfccI think Sunday will be brighter, breezier and even warmer. We have a chance to obliterate the record high of 60 if we get enough sunshine.sunsfcc.png I suspect we will remove the chance for rain from Sunday's forecast and push it back to Sunday night and Monday as the models are finally in fairly good agreement on the timing of this next system.Look at Sunday's forecast highs!sunhightempss.pngRecord highs are likely in many spots across the region:ndfd_record_hi_ma_5.pngMONDAY: All good things must come to an end and Monday should be a soggy one....with colder air to follow.monsfcc.pngThere might even be a thunderstorm Monday.LONG RANGE: The air mass behind Monday's system will be, AT WORST, just average for mid-December. I suspect a lot of the numbers in the longer range are too cold on this chart and the prospects for a White Christmas are certainly looking "meh" as it stands today.KYNG_2015120906_min_max_16.png2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: These very warm temperatures are sometimes hard to keep up with but we'll be doing our best to add the green checks in the coming days.Calendar.jpg WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Wednesday evening edition of the Valley's most detailed weather video will be online between 7:30-8:00 this evening.  More on the threat for thunder with the next system, more detailed starts on the remarkable weekend warmth and a look at the REAL long range....all in tonight's video.CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

Good morning,After a foggy! weekend, this week will be tranquil overall and temperatures will become the real story as we head into the weekend.Today, an upper-level disturbance is overhead but you would not know it by looking outside as the weather is quiet locally. The showers to our south will stay to our south.500MCURRARWith a partly to mostly sunny sky, temperatures will be above average this afternoon.MONHIGHSS.pngMIDWEEK: Another quiet day Tuesday with highs mainly in the 40s again. On Wednesday, a quick-moving system will spread some showers our way in the afternoon and evening. If the air mass was 20 degrees colder, we'd be talking about an "Alberta Clipper" and 1-3" of snow. But....it's not.WEDSSURFF.pngA warm front will lift across the region Thursday and we have a good shot at 50 degrees or higher both Thursday and Friday.THURSSURFF.pngFRIHIGHHS.pngWEEKEND: While the timing of any precipitation is up in the air, we are confident record high temperatures will be challenged and (especially Sunday) probably broken. The record high is 60 Saturday and Sunday.SATGFSHIGHS.pngSUNGFSHIGHS.pngLONG RANGE: It will turn colder early next week, but characteristically of the pattern over the last couple of months, it will not last long. We expect above-average temperatures for much of the run up to Christmas.LONGRANGE WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Monday evening edition of the Valley's most detailed weather video will be online between 7:30-8:00 this evening. Check it out for the latest on the weekend warmth, the long range and the odds of a White Christmas. CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

Good morning! Will keep this brief as I am still "under the weather". (If I has a nickel for every time I've heard that joke....)As expected, last night's snow was no big deal with some coatings here and there. Today we are left with dull, gray, drippy, droopy conditions with lots of clouds and nothing more than a sprinkle or a flurry.thisam.pngTHIRSTYHUGHS.pngFRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: High pressure will drift overhead and stay for a while. Friday will start with clouds but some afternoon sun is in the forecast.fripmsfc.pngThe weekend will be sunny and mild with highs in the upper 40s to around 50. LONG RANGE: Very quiet next week as the mid-December warmth is still on track. Record highs late next week and next weekend are mostly around 60 degrees and they may be challenged a few times! Highs near 60 in mid-December? I like it.KYNG_2015120306_min_max_16.pngBTW, those numbers are off the "ensemble" version of the GFS model (ensemble model: a model which is tweaked and rerun several times) and if the ensemble is showing temperatures that much above average (or conversely....below average) in the long range, it gives us very high confidence in the trends.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: If my voice holds up, The Valley's most detailed (and geeky) weather forecast will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. Tonight I will look beyond the medium range and show you what some of the modeling is saying for Christmas time and into January.2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: Back on track yesterday and we are looking for a strong end to the year. Highly anomalous patterns like we should have next week make for tough forecasts but we are up to the challenge!Calendar.jpg CONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

in

Good morning!The region is in a "dry slot" between the departing front and the approaching upper-level low today. There can be some sunny intervals and temperatures will be a few degrees above average.NOW.pngTODAYHIGHS.pngThat upper level system will first produce spotty rain showers this evening into the early overnight but as the air column overhead cools, we expect snow showers to take over in the wee hours of Thursday morning. Temperatures will be between 32-34 in most spots so we expect little in the way of road issues but the snow can certainly try to stick on non-paved surfaces in the northern part of our viewing area.How much?There can probably be coatings as far south as Rt 224 but the odds of getting an inch or so are highest north of I-80.NWSODDS.pngThe NWS forecast for snow amounts may be a bit overdone in northern Trumbull but I can see a lot of places getting an inch or so up there.NWS.pngAround the latitude of the airport, the SREF ensemble model shows a range of 0" to an inch and a half or so with the mean of all the runs around 0.75".SREF.pngSo, I will make a snow map this afternoon but generally it will probably show a coating-1/2" from Rt 224 to Youngstown, 1/2"-1" around I-80 and 1" to perhaps 2" north of there.Clouds will hang around for much of Thursday and there could be a sprinkle or flurry.FRIDAY/WEEKEND: High pressure will build in and we expect a good deal of sun, especially Saturday and Sunday. A warming trend as well. Great weekend to take care of the holiday decorations.FRIDAYMAPP.pngSATMAPP.pngLONG RANGE: Mild!!! No change to the thinking here.KYNG_2015120200_min_max_16.png WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: The Valley's most detailed (and geeky) weather forecast will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. I'll have the latest information on tonight's snow and much much more.2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: Forecast looked good yesterday until a temperature spike right before the cold front arrived. Temperature got to 57 briefly.Calendar.jpgCONNECT: FacebookTwitterInstagramYouTube