WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 22
https://youtu.be/J9TcWgDhEU4
FRIDAY MORNING VIDEO BLOG: BIG STORM, BUT NOT FOR US
https://youtu.be/wlpsA4KI4Cw
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 21
https://youtu.be/cqV4Y4BGjdE
THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
Good morning!
Last evening I posted a couple of "explainer" graphics that had to do with yesterday's snow. The snow "overachieved", mainly south of 224 where some places had 2-3 inches. Part of the reason for the forecast bust was the fact that the snowflakes were mainly dendrites, the fluffy, sparkly snow that makes for great pictures. It accumulates very efficiently. The snow to liquid ratios were probably 30 or 40 to 1...pretty but not good for snowballs.
Today will be an uneventful day with clouds and limited sun along with cold temperatures. There can be a passing flurry.
THE BIGGGGG STORM
The snow storm that will crush the mid-Atlantic region will be one of the biggest in history for many places. Here's the "big picture" snow forecast, made by me:
In our viewing area, there might be a little snow in the air Friday night and there might even be a coating up to around Rt 224 but the only place that can see an inch or so is in far southern Columbiana County. You won't have to travel all that far to find accumulating snow. Pittsburgh can see a couple/few inches with MUCH more south and east of there.Look at this NWS snow forecast, centered on Virginia. Wow!
This will shut down many cities for the whole weekend. Especially Washington and Baltimore.
The storm will produce problems with ice in the Carolinas, Kentucky and Tennessee.
Our weekend weather will be benign with some sunshine and a slow warming trend.
EARLY NEXT WEEK
The next system will drag in enough mild air that some rain will be possible Monday night into Tuesday.
A shot of somewhat cooler air will follow.
LONG RANGE
Still on track for a warm up at the start of February. These numbers are likely conservative. Could a 50+ plus day or two be in the cards? Perhaps.
Climate models still showing a mild February, in stark contrast to last February, the coldest on record.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
Our snow forecast wasn't great yesterday but the temperature forecast was on the money.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley's most detailed weather forecast will have lots of coverage of the East Coast blizzard and much much more including a breakdown of our weather for the next week to 10 days. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 20
https://youtu.be/S6NNRfek5ok
WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
Good morning!So not to "bury the lead", let's talk about the Friday-Saturday snow storm first.Sorry snow lovers, but this is going to miss the Valley. (ducking)The storm will be a whopper....a crippling storm for many, but it is going to track too far south and east to impact the WFMJ viewing area.
Snow totals can reach 2 feet along the I-81 corridor in Virginia and the mountains of West Virginia.
Have air travel plans Friday-Saturday? Be prepared for trouble, even if you are not flying east. The airports in DC, Baltimore, Philly and NYC are likely to have loads of problems and some may even close. This will cause a ripple effect nationwide.
TODAY'S SNOW
Back in the near term, a weak weather system will cross the lower Ohio Valley today and some light snow will arrive by midday. This can lead to fresh coatings; watch for slippery spots mainly on secondary roads, sidewalks, parking lots, etc.15 hour futurecast:
Highs today near 20.
THE WEEKEND:
As the big East Coast storm continues pushing east, sinking air on the back side of it will lead to a good deal of sunshine Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Temperatures will slowly moderate.
LONG RANGE
Next week looks pretty quiet and not as cold as this week. We still think that February is likely to start on a mild note (compared to average).
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
Having a good month so far. Our goal for 2016 is 80%. Our accuracy is head and shoulders above all other major sources of weather information (including apps) in our area. I keep track!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley's most detailed weather forecast will take a good look at the East Coast situation with the latest models and graphics. Plus: Why February could, for a while anyway, resemble December. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 19
https://youtu.be/Sl_3BKo-CNI
BLOG: WINTER STORM FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT?
Good morning!I wanted to use this space to bring everyone up to date on the potential for accumulating snow Friday into Friday night. As you are probably aware, a major winter storm is likely to strike the East Coast and parts of the mid-Atlantic region. Will it impact the Valley?First, a word on apps and social media. Most weather apps, including The Weather Channel, have forecasts that are largely generated by computer algorithms. The forecasts are largely based on one run of one model with minimal (if any) human input. No human forecaster is sitting at a computer at the Weather Channel stewing about how much snow Youngstown Ohio will see. This is just how these large weather companies have to do it when they have to be able to provide a forecast for millions of points on the Earth.So, when you see an app such as the Weather Channel saying "5-8 inches of snow" 4-5 days out, keep in mind what you are looking at. It is mostly just computer-generated junk.There are THOUSANDS of Facebook weather pages out there these days. Some are really terrific. Many are awful and are run by individuals without the training, education and expertise to forecast the weather. This graphic from the NWS sums it up well:
On to the storm.
Where is it now?
The piece of atmospheric energy that will eventually produce the storm is still over the Pacific ocean!
This is important. Why? A couple of reasons. Our computer models are fed information from weather balloons that are launched over LAND, so when a system is over the ocean it is not being sampled very well. When this system gets over the US tonight and tomorrow morning, the models will have more information and should therefore have a better handle on it. Secondly, this system will interact with the Rocky Mountains and when it emerges on the other side it may look a lot different than it does now.With the information available now (as flawed as it may be), here's what we think.
1) This will probably be a huge storm for parts of Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia.
Look at these huge odds of 12" or more on the European model. It it almost a lock that a lot of people will see 12" or more and 2 feet is possible.
2) The storm is likely to cause huge problems for air travel nationwide.
With major airports such as those in DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, NYC and Boston impacted, a ripple effect will occur across the country. Flying Friday through the weekend? Be ready for trouble.
3) The forecast for The WFMJ viewing area is a tough one at this point. It will get easier over the next 36 hours.
There will be a SHARP snow accumulation cutoff on the northwest wide of this storm. The distance between those who get several inches of snow and those who get nothing will not be very large.
We think that accumulating snow is most likely south and east of Youngstown. The heaviest snow is likely to be south and east of Pittsburgh.The NWS odds of at least 2-3 inches of snow seem reasonable to me at this point.
We are confident that if we see precipitation it will be all snow and not a mix.
4) Odds do NOT favor a big storm for our viewing area
I am not ready to take it "off the table" that we get a "big" storm of 6 inches or more, but I think odds favor less than that. I think it is possible that parts of our viewing area get next to nothing out of this. The farther north and west you live, the less snow you are likely to see.European model odds of 6 inches or more:
A range of 0-20 or 30% for our area.
5) Stay up on the latest forecasts.
There will be new information available as we go through the next 48 hours so stay up on the latest forecast. You know that I will be updating this blog and social media constantly.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 18
https://youtu.be/_bNxEPlVrx4
MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
Good morning!A frigid MLK day today and tomorrow will be about the same. Temperatures across the Midwest and Ohio Valley are no warmer than the single digits this morning and much of the Midwest is below zero.
Notice how the air mass modifies coming across the unfrozen Great Lakes. Western Michigan is 20-25 degrees warmer than much of Wisconsin.Meanwhile, lake-effect snow is ongoing across the snow belt. Most of this will stay in the primary snow belt through tomorrow. Only minor additional accumulations can be expected in the northern part of the WFMJ viewing area.
WIND CHILLS
Of course the kids are off school today but tomorrow morning's wind chill should be pretty similar to this morning. I would expect a lot of 2-hour delays tomorrow (although, again, I am no expect on this subject and am not consulted. Have questions about school adjustments? Talk to your superintendent).
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW
A weak wave of low pressure will scoot by to our south on Wednesday. This will spread some light snow into the Valley for the afternoon and evening. While this will be a fairly minor "event", it can cause some slippery travel for the evening commute.
I would expect an inch to perhaps 2 inches of fluffy snow out of this.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY EAST COAST STORM
A major East Coast snow storm is looking increasingly likely for Friday into Saturday. The heavy snow will likely reach as far west as the spine of the Appalachians with *some* snow back into parts of our viewing area.We are very early in the game with this and details on expect timing and snow amounts will not be clear until midweek, but there is decent model agreement this morning with regards to the *general* ideas.Snapshots of GFS model depiction of things Friday and Saturday:
Our confidence on the "big picture" is pretty good this far out.
Bullet points for our area: *Some* snow is likely Friday into Friday night and perhaps Saturday morning* A BIG storm is unlikely.*The storm track would promote all snow with no concerns for mixed precipitation*The heaviest snow amounts are most likely in SE part of viewing area but that could still only be a few inches. Much higher totals seem likely south and east of Pittsburgh.The storm is likely to have a HUGE impact on air travel across the country since major hubs such as DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia and NYC could face enormous delays and even closures.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley's most detailed weather forecast will have tons of information about the Friday/Saturday system with a look at the latest computer models. Plus: a pattern change is likely at the end of the month and start of February. We'll talk about that as well. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
BLOG: SNOW, WIND, COLD COMING BACK
Good morning all,Quick briefing for you as we start the weekend. Lots to talk about. Today is "no big deal", just cloudy and cooler with temperatures holding steady and then slowly falling. Not much more than a passing flurry.
SUNDAY'S SNOW
A powerful arctic front will head our way Sunday afternoon. This is being driven eat by a strong upper-level low pressure system that is technically a lobe of the polar vortex.
Snow showers are most likely with this front after 2pm. The snow showers can be briefly intense, lowering visibility and slowing travel. They will also be accompanied by gusty winds.By mid-evening Sunday, up to an inch or so of snow is possible.
LAKE EFFECT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
As the arctic air pours over the lakes, Lake-effect snow will get going and the wind flow will favor bands that can get down into parts of our viewing area. There can be at least a couple more inches north of I-80 and even several inches north of Rt 87. It's possible to see some light additional accumulations down to roughly Rt 224.Here's the NWS snow forecast from the front Sunday through the lake-effect Sunday night/Monday:
A Lake-Effect Snow Watch is up for the snow belt.
WIND CHILLS
Wind chills will be below zero for most of Sunday night and Monday morning, as well as Monday night/Tuesday morning.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 15
https://youtu.be/3fXfmX2rlN0
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 14
https://youtu.be/DsKTqaE1nWI
THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
Another minor snow event last night with a general fresh coating to an inch. This morning is not as cold and we will actually enjoy temperatures above freezing for this afternoon. The arctic air has been flushed from the Lower 48 for the time being. Don't worry, it will be back soon.
FRIDAY:
After an uneventful Thursday and Thursday night, mild air will continue to stream into the region as we end the work week. Highs will get into the mid 40s on Friday.
The next cold front will approach late in the day and some rain showers are likely for the evening and part of the overnight hours.
THE WEEKEND:
The first shot of colder air will arrive early Saturday, changing any rain showers over to scattered flurries and snow showers. Temperatures will hold steady and then slowly fall Saturday. Little or no snow accumulation is expected.
The true arctic cold front will arrive on Sunday. This will be accompanied by a period of snow showers and gusty winds. There might be a fresh coating to an inch or so of snow on Sunday. 
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
Brrrrr! An air mass the will be comparable to the one we had Tuesday night into Wednesday will settle over the region for a few days. Highs no warmer than the teens Monday and perhaps Tuesday. A biting wind will make for some harsh wind chills. The GFS model wind chills Monday and Tuesday mornings may not be cold enough. I think there can be some -10 to -15 wind chills.
LONG RANGE:
The cold will ease later next week and we will get into a pattern that does not feature much arctic air. That said, the last 10 days of the month could be unsettled with a few opportunities for wintry or mixed precipitation.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley's most detailed weather forecast will take a deeper dive into the weekend weather, including Sunday's snow showers. Plus: the long range won't be as cold but why does that NOT mean "quiet"? We'll have a look at the stormy possibilities for later this month. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:
A late-day high of 16 means another zero error day. We've had a good month so far.
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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 13
https://youtu.be/-44kGAQOc-Q
WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
Good morning!
Brrrrr. A frigid start to our Wednesday as a fresh arctic air mass followed the Alberta Clipper that brought the snow yesterday. Wind chills were as low as -10 this morning. Temperatures, radar and satellite at 9am:
Lake-effect snow will diminish today and the region will be left with a tranquil, cold day.
Temperatures will keep rising tonight.
TONIGHT'S SNOW:
I've been calling this the "Poor Man's Alberta Clipper" as it will be a much weaker system than the one that rolled through yesterday morning. That said, things can get slick tonight as some light snow rolls in by the end of the evening. 15 hour futurecast takes us through late evening:
There will be a bit more snow after that. Snow amounts will be modest. The models are in fair agreement, showing about an inch:
We think a fresh coating is likely just about everywhere and most places will check in with around an inch of fresh powder.
THURSDAY MORNING IMPACTS:
While the steadiest snow will be over in MOST places by 5am, there can be some residual light snow or flurries....mainly in western PA. Allowing for a little extra travel time is a good idea. Often these "minor" events, -a coating to an inch or two of snow- lead to more accidents than the "big ticket" storms that everyone is more prepared for.
REST OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND:
Temperatures will get above freezing Thursday afternoon and the thaw will continue Friday. In fact it will be warm enough for rain, not snow, Friday evening and night.
But the warm up will be brief. Arctic air will charge in behind that system and temperatures will probably hold steady or fall on Saturday. Snow showers are likely. Any accumulations would likely be very minor.
Remember how today feels because Sunday and early next week will feel very similar.
LONG RANGE:
The arctic blast should be the last one for a while as the pattern becomes more "zonal" across the country. This means air masses that move into the region are more likely to have originated over the Pacific than the Arctic. So, while it does not look "warm" it will be "less cold" for much of the last 10 days of January and perhaps early February.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
We'll geek out to the long range tonight, taking a good look at the end of January and February. Our winter forecast indicated that February would be the coldest, snowiest month (compared to average). How's that forecast looking? Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:
A zero error day yesterday! Those make us happy.
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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 12
https://youtu.be/u2yqJRIXfNY
"WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS" SNOW UPDATE
https://youtu.be/m37QpcaZ3i4
BLOG: WINTER STORM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
Good morning! The weekend ended on a slippery note with snow showers and plunging temperatures. Now the stage is set for the highest impact snow event of the season so far.A "big" storm? No. But, again high IMPACT because of the timing and nature of the system. Let's walk through it.
THE SETUP
We have PLENTY of arctic air across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Temperatures are bone-chilling to start the day.
The system that will bring us snow is actually HARD to find on the map this morning. That's because it is way up in Alberta, Canada.
As is typical of Alberta Clippers, this system will move very quickly south and east over the next 24 hours. It will be moisture-starved at first but will pick up some moisture once it gets over the Midwest.
TIMING:
Here's an animation showing the system moving from Canada through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through early Wednesday. Note the lake-effect setting up behind it. A clock is in the upper right.
We expect snow to begin around 1:00am Tuesday morning. Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly.
By 7:00am it will be a mess out there and road crews will be working hard.
The steadiest of the snow will wind down by midday. There can be scattered snow showers after that but the snow will not be as consistent and I would expect conditions to improve for a while. By late afternoon and evening, lake-effect will start getting organized. The wind direction off the lake will be favorable for bands to get pretty far south into our viewing area.
So we look for additional accumulations from lake-effect Tuesday evening through the overnight. Most of this will be north of I-80, where some places can see another few inches. Even as far south as roughly Rt 224 there can be small additional accumulations and poor visibility for a while Tuesday night.
ACCUMULATIONS:
During the "first part" (the non-lake-effect) tonight into tomorrow, we think a general 3" is pretty likely. Perhaps closer to 2" from around Rt 30 on south. Since blinding snow squalls can occur for a time around mid-morning, and these are notoriously hard to predict more than a couple of hours in advance, it's possible some places get another inch or so while others do not.
Our computer models are in fair agreement.
Again, a couple or few additional inches can occur Tuesday night with lake-effect, mainly north of I-80.
IMPACTS:
This will be a high-impact snow event despite amounts being fairly modest. Expect school adjustments Tuesday and for many, Wednesday. Travel will be slow, especially Tuesday morning. We are not expecting many problems with power outages as they snow will not be super heavy/goopy. This will make it reasonably easy to shovel.
Wind chills Wednesday morning will be -5 to -10.
Much more throughout the day on social media, on 21 News at midday, 6pm and 11pm, wfmj.com/weather and your WFMJ mobile app. 
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 8
https://youtu.be/qD2nxDYam9Y