TUESDAY (6/14) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING TO YA,
Another fine June morning out there as the Valley remains in the "comfortable zone"...for now. A partly to mostly sunny sky today with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
HERE COMES THE HUMID AIR
The muggy air that is off to our west now will get the green light to come east Wednesday into Thursday. Dewpoints will spike into the 60s and even near 70. Wednesday will not feature MUCH rain although the threat of a pop-up shower will be there.
Notice by Wednesday evening there will likely be some thunderstorms over parts of the Buckeye State. A couple of these can roam toward the Valley Wednesday night. Not impressed with the severe weather risk locally but central and western Ohio will be at risk. The Storm Prediction Center actually has an 'enhanced" risk area from Chicago to Detroit:
We have a higher risk of thunderstorms Thursday as an upper-level low pivots southward. This feature can bring showers and storms at any point Thursday and severe weather is something that is possible....especially south of Rt. 224.
TRANSITION DAY FRIDAY
Better things are coming for the weekend and Friday will be our transition day. Dewpoints will lower by the afternoon and any residual showers will be mainly in the morning. Should be a pleasant evening.
WARM, GLORIOUS WEEKEND
Father's Day weekend will be fantastic. Warm but with tolerable humidity. Loads of sunshine both days. Highs in the 80s. Enjoy!
LONG RANGE
Warmth will continue to build into early next week before the arrival of a midweek cold front. The sprawling, strong ridge of high pressure will be responsible for dangerous heat out West during the weekend. 120 is possible in Phoenix.
Look at this stretch of weather in Phoenix. Yikes.
Here at home...here's a general guideline on what to expect. Mid/upper 80s for a few days Sunday-Tuesday.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!
Temperatures will return to the mid 80s Wednesday if we get enough sunshine. Dewpoints will be on the rise as well.
BACK TO BEAUTIFUL
VERY juicy air is off to our west and that moisture is set to head our way tonight and Saturday.
There could be a shower or thunderstorm along that warm front late tonight and early Saturday. The NAM model does not show much but it may be a bit underdone:
Most models show mainly dry weather Saturday afternoon with jist isolated pop-up storms.
Our cold front will approach Saturday night and that should actually be when the highest risk of thunderstorms is.We remain in the SPC "Slight Risk" zone.
Weighing the risks:
Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the north and west.
Good setup for severe weather, right? Yes....but will storms actually fire? That's the million dollar question. As you can see in the image above, the model we showed on TV tonight has almost no activity firing ahead of the front. Some other models show a similar lack of activity. Some of the modeling is more "robust".A model profile of the atmosphere Saturday afternoon shows plenty of instability and some decent wind shear. This graphic is very complicated but I have circled (in white) the part that shows the wind direction changing from west-southwest to northwest as you go UP in the atmosphere. This is what we call "wind shear" and is one of the more important ingredients for severe weather.
This much simpler graphic shows the "energy helicity index" which basically combines instability (ability for air parcels to rise) and wind shear. There is a bullseye near or just east of the Valley.
Remember that, severe storm or not, lightning is ALWAYS dangerous. If you hear thunder, you are close enough to a storm to be struck by lightning. Head inside.
By the way, that early Saturday activity may be the key to what happens later in the day. If debris clouds stick around for a while after the rain ends (or the rain simply lasts longer), the atmosphere may struggle to "recover" to the point that it can produce tall, heavy storms. That's one of the big forecast challenges.
If you have not yet, please download the StormTracker 21 app in your app store of choice.More updates Friday.-Eric
"Slight" can be a deceiving word in these outlooks. When we are in a "Slight Risk" area, chances of severe weather are usually quite a bit higher than a typical day and you should be weather aware.What we may have is some damp weather to start and then a period of dry and hot weather. As we get deeper into the afternoon, storms may fire to our northwest and try to head southeast. The HIGHEST risk overall MIGHT be east of I-79 in PA but again...details we will work out in the coming hours.Weather For Weather Geeks will have more on this threat this evening and I will probably do a separate blog post as well.
Thankfully, today will be a calmer day. We are still under the influence of a deep trough of low pressure over southeastern Canada and that means the atmosphere can become a little unstable again this afternoon. A pop-up shower or thundershower is possible but it's only about a 20-30% chance kind of a thing. 15 hour futurecast:
It will be a cool, comfortable day today with highs only in the upper 60s to near 70.
Lows tonight will be in the 40s...keep those windows cracked! Great summer sleeping weather.
The Storm Prediction Center already has the area outlined for potential severe weather, which is somewhat rare this far out (day 5).
So this is obviously something we will be keeping a close eye on in the coming days.
What about the rest of the day? I don't think it rains MUCH. Pop-up shower and storm activity remains a possibility but I suspect there are many locations that do not see a drop for the rest of the day. 15 hour futurecast:
Hourly odds of rain in any one location:
Meanwhile, a cold front is approaching from the northwest. Notice the lower-dewpoint air behind that front. That's the refreshing air mass that we will enjoy tomorrow.
Friday will be a winner with highs near 80 and lots of afternoon sunshine.
Sunday will be an unsettled day but not a total washout. Plan on spotty showers all day with the chance for thunder as well.
Today looks TOASTY...a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs generally 87-88 with sunshine.
The weather map shows a front to our south...this marks the border between dry air (which we have) and moisture-laden air to the south.
That front will lift northward as a warm front tonight into tomorrow. Ironically tomorrow will not be as warm as today but it WILL be more humid.Speaking of tomorrow....a weakening cold front is on the way and this thing will struggle to produce MUCH wet weather. The threat is there at any time Thursday (with higher odds in the morning/midday) but the day will be FAR from a washout.Simulated NAM model radar:
Keep those outdoor plans but check the interactive radar on your StormTracker 21 app.
Sunday is a different story. While I do not think it will be a "rainy" day, I do think there will be showers and thunderstorms around on occasion. More humid as well.
This will make for a cool start to the work week with highs 66-70 Monday and Tuesday. Probably some "instability" showers around as well with all that cold air aloft.
Wednesday will be a couple of degrees warmer but still not all that humid. Highs around 85-86.
Behind that system, a trough of low pressure will swing through the Great Lakes, meaning some cool weather is likely early next week. There may be a couple of days with highs in the 60s.
This year is likely to be warmer than the last 3. Perhaps not quite as warm as 2010/2011/2012 but still above average. And we will not be alone. Much of the country should have a warm to hot summer (compared to average, of course).
Does this mean a LOT of 95 degree days with stifling humidity? No, not necessarily. But I DO think there will be more 90+ days than the last few years. 2012 was ridiculous and I don't expect a repeat of that.Overall, I suspect we will be close to our average of 8-9 90+ days.
IF we were to have a dry summer, especially early, western PA could fall into an official drought as that region has been drier than eastern Ohio so far this year.
This map will look different by May 31.Today: PERFECTION with sunshine, dry air and afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s.
On Thursday and Friday, expect temperatures to soar well into the 80s with noticeable humidity. Random/pop-up thunderstorms will be a possibility both days, especially in the afternoon.
