BLOG: Busy Week of Weather Ahead

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GOOD MORNING!

As meteorological winter draws to a close and meteorological spring revs up this week, it promises to be a bit of a bumpy transition. Let's break things down day by day.

TODAY

A milder day today but not as sunny as yesterday turned out to be. There can be a touch of rain this afternoon in some spots...may not amount to much more than sprinkles. Hi-res futurecast:Click to EnlargeHigh temperatures today will be several degrees above average (which is near 40).Click to Enlarge

TUESDAY

A warm front will lift northward across the region Tuesday, resulting in a balmy day but with the threat of spotty showers. This is another April/May-like system and so not only will temperatures be more like that time of the year but a severe weather threat exists to our south and west Tuesday into Tuesday night. While a rumble of thunder is possible here, we are not looking for string storms just yet. Highs locally in the upper 50s Tuesday as February ends.Click to Enlarge

WEDNESDAY

The system will push east on Wednesday and will drag a cold front into the region. The air ahead of the front will be moist and unstable (especially for March 1) so we expect showers and thunderstorms to get going. A squall line of storms will be possible, especially before 2pm. NAM model depiction: hiresp_ref_ma_55hiresp_ref_ma_58The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a low risk for severe weather. Guess I would not be surprised to see the "Slight: risk area (yellow) get pulled a but farther north in western PA.Click to EnlargeBy far and away the #1 risk with any storms will be wind. Even outside of thunderstorms, Wednesday and Wednesday night will be quite windy with some gusts to 40-45 mph possible.  Rain totals over the next few days of up to 1 inch will be possible (but locally higher amounts can occur in storms).Click to EnlargeBy Wednesday night the colder air will be pushing in and we can see some snowflakes.Click to Enlarge

THURSDAY NIGHT: SNEAKY CLIPPER?

The models are trying to latch onto a weak low pressure system (a "clipper") that will cross the region late Thursday and Thursday night. This may bring little or no snow to the region or if the track is right, a couple of inches. We don't know yet and will firm up this forecast in the next couple of days.eps_snow_c_ma_21 gfs_ptype_slp_ma_17

LONGER RANGE:

Ups and downs but there will be some shots of cold during the first half of March. More than we had in February!Click to Enlarge

PROGRAMMING NOTE: MY SPRING OUTLOOK WILL AIR LATER THIS WEEK, PROBABLY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WE'LL REVIEW THE (NOT GREAT) WINTER FORECAST AS WELL.

BLOG: UPDATE ON WARMTH, LONGER-RANGE FORECAST

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This stretch of weather has been unbelievable and it is far from over. The warmest weather is STILL to come.Today won't be as bright and sunny as we have a very weak front heading our way. Radar looks ominous, but much of this will shrivel up as it heads into drier air over our region.Click to Enlarge Hi-res futurecast....not much more than a passing shower or sprinkle late today.Click to Enlarge Highs today: SPRING FEVER. 70s in central and southern Ohio.Click to Enlarge We are not alone. These maps are based on the NWS forecasts, which are somewhat different than ours locally. Each circle represents a tied or broken record in the forecast. ndfd_record_hi_ma_1wedsrecthurecfrirecOur current forecast. I suspect we will be taking tomorrow's expected high up a few degrees. Click to Enlarge A high of 70 or higher is VERY rare here. All of FIVE occurrences since 1930!Click to Enlarge We are quickly climbing the list of warmest Februarys in Youngstown.Click to Enlarge The warmth will peak ahead of a strong cold front on Friday. While we may hear thunder Friday night, there is a concern for severe weather to our west during Friday. day4probThen a big change. Temperatures will fall all day Saturday and we might even see snowflakes in the air by the end of the day.Click to Enlarge The weekend cool down in just a "pause" though. Next week will not be as warm as this week but still quite mild!Click to Enlarge

BLOG: IS WINTER OVER? (DID IT BEGIN?)

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I am frequently asked "what happened to the winters we USED to have?", "where is all the snow", "are we ever going to get a BIG storm?" etc. These are good questions and important ones. The atmosphere is extremely complicated and SIMPLE answers are often hard to come by.I have spent a considerable amount of time this winter debunking the myth that winters were much colder and snowier in the 70s and 80s. They simply were not...in fact the 2010s have been the SNOWIEST decade (so far) since at least the 1960s. We also had back-to-back harsh winters, the likes we have not seen since the late 70s, just 2 and 3 years ago. Our memories can be quite short (on any number of subjects!) and weather is no exception.The maps tell the story: here are the temperatures (compared to average) through February 13 in 2014: conus_ytd_t2avg_anom_2014.png2015: conus_ytd_t2avg_anom_2015.pngAnd this year: conus_ytd_t2avg_anom_2017.pngThe contrast is pretty remarkable.One of the hallmarks of this winter season (and last year too) has been the lack of SUSTAINED cold. It gets cold for a couple or few days, but then it just gets mild again.highsunder25.pngThere really has just been one cold "snap" this season, early in January and it lasted 4 days. Notice all the cold snaps in the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

WHY??

The reasons for the balmy winter weather are complicated. It's easy to just be flippant and say "GLOBAL WARMING!!!!!". I hear that a lot. The climate IS changing, but attributing individual weather events and even warm spells on the scale of months directly to climate change is unwise.The simplest explanation for our mild winter lies over the Pacific ocean. A very strong jet stream, perhaps being aided by something called the Quasi-biennial oscillation (which has been record strong lately) has been unrelenting in recent months. The result has been a VERY wet winter in California and the West Coast. pacjet.pngAnother result? Mild air floods the eastern 2/3 of the country. This Pacific jet acts as a real barrier for arctic air trying to come south in eastern North America. This "top down" view, looking over the North Pole, shows the west-to-east upper-air flow over North America. The cold stays "locked up" near the pole and/or gets shoved into Asia. poledown.png

THE REST OF WINTER

I see very few signs that this overall pattern will change for the rest of the season. Will it snow? Yes. Will it get cold occasionally? Yes. Like....in less than 24 hours! Wind chills by Thursday will be mainly in the single digits and teens: chillsthursamThere can be a couple of inches of snow in our northern viewing area, especially in Mercer County, Wednesday into Thursday. hiresp_snow_cleveland_61.pngBut that's gonna be it for snow for a while. A VERY balmy pattern will take over this weekend into next week. A high near 60 can occur for at least a few days: KYNG_2017021400_eps_min_max_15.pngThe long-range modeling shows the same kind of pattern that we have been in all winter. Warm overall with brief periods of cold. The latest European model temperatures for the next month: eps_t2m_768h_conus_129.pngThe American CFS model for March (average of last 14 runs): cfs_anom_t2m_noram_201703_56.pngLooks familiar.