BLOG: Heavy Storms, Possible Severe Weather

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The holiday weekend is over and so is the tranquil weather! We have a busy couple of days coming up so let's get right to it.As you head out today, you will notice it's more humid than it has been over the last couple of days. Here's this morning's weather map: nowA warm front moved through last night and dewpoints have come up significantly. Check out how high the dewpoints are in parts of the region, especially to our west: dewThat soupy air mass is pushing into the region ahead of a weak cool front. As that cool front pushes east, it will help lift this moist, unstable air mass and some thunderstorms are likely to get going this afternoon. Here is the 2pm simulated radar off of the HRRR model: 2pmThe threat for thunderstorms will be with us through the end of the afternoon/early evening. It is important to note that MOST of these storms will NOT be severe. Sure, they will have plenty of lightning and some tropical downpours. But most will not produce hail 1" or larger or damaging winds. BUT, the potential is there for a COUPLE of them to reach that threshold.The Storm Prediction Center has the entire region in the enhanced risk zone today: DAY1The odds of a damaging wind gust within 25 miles of any location are about 15% today: WINDSame with large hail: HAILThe tornado threat, while not ZERO, is very low. SPC has us in the 2% area. TORUnfortunately this is not the only day we have a severe weather threat this week. Tomorrow could be quite busy as well! Taking a look at the mid levels of the atmosphere (about 500 millibars or 18,000 feet), notice today we have our (fairly weak) disturbance moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes....and a stronger system getting set to exit the northern Rockies: 500todayBy tomorrow, that system will be pushing through the Great Lakes and causing more showers and thunderstorms: 500tueOnce again we are in the SPC enhanced risk zone, and for good reason. Any storms tomorrow afternoon could pack quite a punch. day2More details on tomorrow's weather once we get through today!Thanks for reading.Eric