The Big Pre-Christmas Washout of 2013

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Another weekend....another storm! This time it is RAIN and not snow that is our big concern. Scattered showers will occur today, with steadier rain expected for Saturday. The heaviest rain is likely to fall late Saturday and Saturday night.This map shows the slug of heavy rain pushing through before daybreak on Sunday:ecmwfued---conus-60-C-mslpthkpcp_white6How much rain? The highest totals are likely to be from western Ohio down through the lower Ohio River Valley. Here's how much rain the European model predicts:eurorainA good 2 inches in the Mahoning Valley, with 3-5 inches from Toledo to Cinci and points southwest.The National Weather Service has an even beefier prediction, with over 3" for most of the WFMJ viewing area. I think this is probably somewhat overdone and that we are likely to be closer to 2" total (between now and Sunday morning).qpfcloseA broader view of the NWS forecast shows how water-logged the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys will be:qpfbigThere is also a SEVERE weather risk....thankfully not here though. While a rumble of thunder is possible in the Youngstown area Saturday night, we are not expecting damaging winds or hail. Map shows enhanced risk in yellow for Cinci, Louisville, etc:day2Those who  live near rivers, streams and creeks need to be aware of the elevated flood risk, especially Saturday night and Sunday. Here is the forecast for the Mahoning River at Leavittsburg, Warren and Youngstown. Minor flooding possible, and moderate flooding cannot be ruled out:leavwarrenyoAfter the rainy weekend, it looks quieter but colder for the few days around Christmas. As we have been saying for a few days now, a White Christmas is not likely at across the area. There will not be an inch on the ground Christmas morning and Christmas Day is likely to be snow-free. That said, there may be some "mood" flurries on Christmas Eve:xmaseveChristmas Eve will be windy and COLD with wind chills in the teens.Who will get a White Christmas? Lots of places in the Midwest, northern New England:eurodepthThanks for reading! Have a good, safe weekend!Eric

How High Is Flood Risk This Weekend?

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The combination of heavy rain and snow melt will lead to an elevated risk of flooding near some rivers, streams and creeks across the Valley. Here is a look at the foretasted risk for flooding along the Mahoning River at 3 spots:In Youngstown, minor flooding seems fairly likely by Sunday with an outside chance of moderate flooding:ytownAlong the river in Warren, a good chance for minor flooding, with some risk of moderate flooding (along with a small chance of major flooding):warren At Leavittsburg, a similar forecast. Minor flooding likely, with moderate flooding a possibility:leav 

An Update on The Warmth, the Rain and Christmas!

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Today will be another cold day with temperatures in the 20s, but much is about to change. Take a look at the change in the jet stream configuration between now  (top) and Friday (bottom):jetnowjetfridayA trough of low pressure over the East will be replaced by a ridge of high pressure, centered over the Southeast. A deep through of low pressure will move over the Rockies. The ridge will allow warm air to surge north. The warmest air is likely to be overhead Sunday morning. The European model MAY be a bit too warm, but still, check out it's forecast high temperatures Sunday:eurohighssunThat's UPPER 60s in Northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Notice the dramatic drop on the other side of the front in Northwest Ohio.All of this warmth will zap our snow pack...and that process will be aided by rain. Perhaps a lot of rain. Check out the NOAA total rainfall prediction between now and Sunday night:qpfWhile amounts may be higher to our west, a good 1-2 inches of rain is likely here...with the potential for more. This combined with the snow melt raises the concern for some flooding. Here's a map showing the "snow water equivalent", which is  It is the amount of water contained within the snow pack. There is up to an inch or so of water in the Mahoning Valley snow pack currently.snowwaterThese factors have led the NWS to outline much of the region for "possible" flooding this weekend:floodingAfter a warm and wet weekend, we have big changes coming next week. Monday will be windy and 30-35 degrees colder with snow flurries possible. Here's the surface map for that afternoon:gfsmondaySnow accumulations are not likely to be significant Monday and these may be the LAST snowflakes we see before Christmas Day. Right now, the holiday looks tranquil.The European Model outlook:euroxmasThe GFS Model has a somewhat different idea on the placement of some features such as the cold front, but quiet weather is still advertised for our region. Maybe there is a late-day flurry:gfsxmasSo, our chances of a White Christmas are not looking high this year. Based on the last 78 Christmas Days, here are the "historical" odds of a White Christmas in Youngstown:oddsHighs on Christmas Day are likely to be in the mid/upper 30s.Thanks for reading!Eric

Monday Morning Weather Information Bonanaza

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First, since December is half over, let's review how the month is going so far. Obviously, it's been cold and snowy! And we are not alone in that. Take a look at the temperature "departure from average" map for the country through December 15:1sthalf Officially at the Youngstown-Warren airport, there has been a foot of snow so far this month. How does this compare to past early Decembers? Well 2010 blows everything away, but this has been the 10th snowiest open to December since 1930:decsnow Saturday's storm behave pretty much as expected. The "mild" air got a bit farther north than originally expected, leading to some light rain/drizzle late in the day in many places. Snowfall totals ranged from an inch or two in southern Columbiana County to 4-5" or so in much of Mahoning, Trumbull and Mercer counties. Current snow cover map shows the lower snow totals in southeastern Columbiana County:coverHow about this week? Well, 2 separate "clipper" systems will track our way tonight and Tuesday...each bringing a fluffy inch or two to the Valley. Here's the simulated radar at midnight tonight:midnightradar After a lull Tuesday morning, the second system will move through in the afternoon. Here's what the radar should look like at 1:00pm:1pmradar Watch for slick spots early Tuesday morning and again at the end of the afternoon.It looks like it will warm up and rain at the end of this week. This will do a number on our snow pack. Check out the expected change from Tuesday evening to Saturday morning:DEPTHCHANGESo, is the possibility of s White Christmas in jeopardy? I would say so. It does not (at this point) look like there will be much new snow early next week. It's far enough out that much can change, so stay tuned. The GFS and European computer models have a tranquil looking Christmas morning overall (although the GFS does have some snow showers/flurries):gfsxmaseuroxmassfcA guess on high temperatures on Christmas Day: Somewhere in the lower to middle 30s. Stay tuned as I am sure there will be adjustments to that forecast! Thanks for reading,Eric  

An Update on Saturday's Snow

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First, a quick recap of the COLD. At 7:45 this morning, the average temperature across Ohio was a bone-chilling 9.9 degrees:rtma_tmp2m_midatlusA few of the coldest nooks in north-central Ohio dropped a bit below zero, while most backyards in the Mahoning and Shenango valleys were between 6-10 at the start of the day. There is a TON of cold air over the continent right now:namtemps This type of cold this early in the season does not happen often....in fact, just a handful of times in the last 30 years in Youngstown:colddays Ok, on to the weekend snow. Not much has changed in the thinking since yesterday. Snow will break out a few hours before daybreak on Saturday and it will basically snow all day. Here is an animation showing the snow piling up from 1am Saturday to 1pm Sunday (click to animate):output_jdmoy7That's the European model, and it has similar ideas to other models. Look closely and you can see it gives most of the area 4-5 inches of snow.The SREF model, which is an "ensemble" model, has a range of solutions from about 2 inches to a little over 7 inches. The mean or average (black line) is a bit over 4 inches. (An ensemble model is a model that is run several times, each time with slightly different initial conditions. Each run is represented by a line on the graph.)sref So, we have out a forecast of 3-5 inches for late Friday night and Saturday. Small additional accumulations are possible Sunday, mainly in the most lake-effect prone areas north of I-80. Malls will be packed Saturday; if you plan on being out, take it slow and plan on longer-than-average travel times!Thanks for reading...Eric  

Bitter Cold, Then More Snow!

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While parts of the Valley will get a coating to 1/2" worth of snow this afternoon and evening, the big story in the near term is the cold! Temperatures will drop below 10 in many spots tonight, then readings will stay in the teens Thursday.How unusual is it to have a high of 17 degrees (our forecast) or colder this early in the season? Quite! It's only happened 11 times in Youngstown since 1930 and the most recent early-season cold snap of this magnitude occurred in 1995 (we had 2 such days early in December that year).17daysYou may be wondering what the record for "coldest high temperature" for tomorrow is. It is 10 degrees, set in 1962. Here's a chart showing the "coldest high temperature" for each day of the year in Youngstown:minmaxes It's been so cold lately that ice has started to form on the western (shallow) end of Lake Erie. It's pretty early in the season for that.iceAir masses have no trouble staying cold right now as they push out of Canada, because there is a deep snowpack over much of the U.S. This helps keep the air "refrigerated"; air masses that would normally modify coming south and east do not have much of a chance to do so. Current snow depth:depth Ok, what about the weekend snow? Well by Saturday morning, low pressure will be pushing into the lower Ohio Valley:satamsurfaceSnow will break out before sunrise and will continue much of the day. At  this point, it seems likely that precipitation will remain all snow; mixing with sleet could occur closer to I-70. How much? Looks like enough to shovel and plow...at least a few inches.The European model, which is often one of the more accurate computer models we use, has a general 3-5" snowfall:eurosnow These amounts seem reasonable. We will be updating the forecast frequently over the next few days! -Eric