A Little Mid-Winter Review

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"Meteorological Winter" is a bit different than "Astronomical Winter", which runs from about December 21-March 21 each year.  Meteorological Winter is considered to be December 1-February 28...the 3 coldest months of the year. So, we are now about halfway through Meteorological Winter. Let's take stock of the Winter so far.Here are the cold hard facts in one tidy graphic:dayfile Notice that the "departure from normal" number is not that significant, 0.3 degrees below normal. Here's a snapshot look at each day's temperature pattern so far:tempgraphWe are above normal in the precipitation department, mainly because it has been fairly snowy so far. This chart shows the recorded snowfall this season compared to average (and I threw last season's snow for the same time period for the sake of comparison):CaptureJanuary has been REALLY cold, right? Well overall....not really. A bit below average, yes.....but the extreme cold we had last week has been balanced by many mild days recently. Here's the departure from average map for the US and Canada so far this month:jananom Check out what the mild air has done to the ice coverage on Lake Erie since last week. It was nearly frozen over after the Arctic outbreak (left side) but many open area appeared this week (right side):modiscompare What does the next 7-10 have in store? Some pretty typical January cold is likely through early next week. The next 2 maps show temperatures across North America today (top) and Monday (bottom):2mnow2mmonday Notice that the harshest cold will be mainly bottled up in Canada early next week. BUT, the floodgates will open by midweek and it looks quite cold for a few days: 2mweds What about snow? At this point it does not look like we will see any significant accumulations over the next week.But what about the rest of Winter? Predicting how much snow we will get over a 6 week period is next to impossible....but for "fun", I looked at previous Winters that had similar snow totals in the December 1-January 14 time frame to this Winter.Average snowfall from January 15-February 28 is 22 inches. But despite snowy starts to Winter, 4 out of 5 of the Winters I looked at had below-average snow in the 2nd half of the season.1969: 12.7"1970: 19.9"2004: 25.4"1957: 14.4"1996: 7.8"Will this Winter end with a whimper too? We shall see!Thanks for reading!Eric 

Cold Snap Recap; Now What's On Tap?

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We are slowly emerging from the most severe cold snap in 20 years in northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The last of the Wind Chill Advisories has expired and the wind is mot much of a factor today.The low of -12 Tuesday morning tied for 9th place on the list of coldest temperatures on record in Youngstown:mintemps The high temperature of 2 tied for 8th place on the list of coldest daytime high temperatures:minmax This high resolution satellite image shows visually what the coldest day in 20 years looked like on Tuesday: streaks of lake-effect snow, lakes freezing over, ice jams on rivers and a deep snowpack on the land:modislakesLake Erie is freezing over quickly. Check out this animation showing the increase in ice cover just over the last 48 hours:output_w8AgQoThe first week of January has been remarkably cold in much of the country. This map shows the temperature anomalies (departure from average) so far this month:jan1stweekA nice January Thaw is about to unfold. The Polar Vortex is heading back to where it belongs, in northern Canada and this will allow milder air to sweep across the country.jetBy Saturday, temperatures may reach the lower 50s in Youngstown; that's over 60 degrees warmer than Tuesday morning's low of -12.  While the daytime highs after the 1994 cold outbreak did not get into the 50s....the magnitude of the warming trend was similar (about a 60 degree change):1994It IS January though and any mild air is not likely to stick around long. The 7-14 day temperature outlook shows colder than average temperatures in our part of the country:7-14Thanks for reading!Eric

And Now.....The REAL Cold Comes.

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Captain Obvious: It's very cold and windy this morning across the region. Wind chills were well below zero at the start of the day. And of course, we have our fresh snow on the ground. The forecast worked out well Thursday with most places picking up between 3-6 inches of snow.Here is a map showing how much snow fell over the last 24 hours or so:snow Now we really can start focusing on the next round of precipitation and the INCREDIBLE cold to follow. The leading edge of the intense cold will be accompanied by some snow as the air mass moves south and east. Here's the Sunday evening weather map:sundayevening The air will probably warm up just enough ahead of the system that many places will see a mix or even changeover to rain for a time Sunday evening. This will cut down on overall snow totals. This looks like a 1-3" or at most 2-4" type of event for most of the Mahoning Valley, and that idea is supported by the latest computer models.The European model has a bit less than 2" here. Notice the much higher amounts to the west where there will be no mixing and colder air:eurosnow The Canadian Model has a similar idea:canadiansnow After the snow comes the cold. Temperatures will FALL all day Monday and we should be below zero by sunset. Overnight lows Monday night will be outrageous. Our forecast is for -16, but -20 is not out of the question. The European model has been singing that song consistently.  Here's it's forecasted overnight lows:ecmwf_t2min_cleveland_18 Other models are not quite as extreme and we lean toward those models somewhat. Here's the list of all time record lows in Youngstown:lowesttemps The REALLY bad news? The wind is looking to be fierce for a while after the arctic air arrives. The Wind Chills shown on the GFS computer model are unbelievable:gfs_windchill_ohio_33YES, THAT'S -45 DEGREES. I suspect that is TOO LOW, but still, -25 to -35 is a real possibility for the Wind Chill Tuesday morning.This is the kind of cold and wind that can lead to frostbite in less than 10-15 minutes. There will be scores of dead car batteries. If your home is prone to pipes freezing, take the time to insulate them. And of course, common sense applies when it comes to pets. Keep them in and if they HAVE to go out, make sure it is only for a couple of minutes.The HIGH is likely to be below zero Tuesday and that is quite rare. The coldest HIGH temperatures on record in Youngstown:lowesthighs Jess Briganti will be in Saturday morning and I will be on duty Sunday morning getting you prepared for this amazing, but dangerous weather situation.Thanks for reading!Eric 

Youngstown Weather Year in Review 2013

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Like all years, there were many weather "highs" and "lows" in 2013. Hot weather, cold weather, wet weather, dry weather, snowy weather. But when we look at the year as a whole, what do we find? It was VERY typical! In fact, the average temperature of 49.1 degrees is exactly normal for Youngstown!91 was reached on two consecutive days in July (the 18th and 19th). A cold snap in January sent the mercury down to 3 above on both the 23rd and 24th.dayfile Notice the precipitation total: almost exactly average!Here's a chart showing the temperature spread every day this year, with record highs and lows shown as well:2013temps  How did this year compare to past years, temperature wise? Here is a look at the average temperature each year going back to 1930:19302013temps  As you can see, this year was cooler than the last few.This chart shows how precipitation trends evolved over the year. After a dry Spring/early Summer, the second half of Summer was wet and included some flooding problems in July:2013precip 2013 was quite a bit drier than 2012:20122013precip Overall precipitation was near normal for the year, but snowfall was above normal. Here's how this year's snow compares to years past:snow19302013 2014 is going to start very cold and snowy. What will the rest of the year bring? How will it compare to 2013? Check back in 365 days :)Eric  

2014 Starting With a Bang!

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After picking up an inch or so worth of snow Monday night and this morning, a period of quieter weather will be with us this afternoon and evening. It will just be windy and cold!If you will be out celebrating the arrival of the new year tonight, be aware that there may be a touch of snow or flurries around...perhaps just enough to cause a slippery spot or two, especially on sidewalks, parking lots, etc.This band of light snow will encompass much of northern Ohio and the southern Great Lakes:midnightsnow As for the daylight hours of New Years' Day, I think there will be some light snow around at times, especially north of I-80. Parts of Trumbull and Mercer counties might get an inch or two, with less than an inch more likely farther south. Here's what the radar may look like at 4pm:4pmrad Notice the "steadier" snow in northwest Ohio? That will pivot across the state and through the Youngstown area Wednesday night and Thursday morning/midday. That time frame is when accumulations are most likely across the entire viewing area.HOW MUCH??When we total up snow accumulations from Wednesday through Thursday (again, MOST of it occurs Wednesday night/Thursday morning and midday)....the computer models have come into pretty good agreement. My "first stab" of 3-6" made Monday morning looks pretty good. Best chance for the high end of the that range will be north of I-80.Here's the European model accumulation forecast:eurosnowThe American GFS model:gfssnowThe latest Short Range Ensemble Model (blue line) has an average of near 7" at the YNG airport. This is probably a bit high, but not totally out of the question:CaptureOk, let's talk about the cold for a minute. It's going to come in 2 waves. The first one arrives in the wake of the snow Thursday night through Saturday morning.Lows Friday morning (on European model):eurofriamMany places will flirt with 0 Friday morning and again Saturday morning. Here's Saturday's lows, again according to the European:eurosatamNext week's cold is likely to be more intense, and some of the coldest weather we have had in at least a few years. How cold it gets is a tough forecast this far out. I think low temperatures of -5 to -10 are POSSIBLE for 1-2 mornings next week. Stay tuned!Eric

A Wild First Day of "Winter"!

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Winter began at 12:11pm Saturday and of course it was unusually warm and wet. Take a look at rainfall totals since mid-morning yesterday:rainohioRadar-estimated rainfall totals over the last 36 hours have been impressive as well:cle Totals were even higher in SW Ohio with up to 5" just northwest of Dayton:iln While not much thunder and lightning occurred last night, a very impressive shot of wind and rain rolled through between 1:45-2:30. Here's the 2:00 am radar:2AM There were several reports of wind damage across the region...most heavily concentrated from the Ohio River south:reports Since rainfall totals were not quite as high as feared, the flooding threat along the Mahoning River does not look as high as yesterday. Crests will still be above flood stage later today:Leavittsburg:leav Warren:warren Youngstown:yo I (and this blog) will be on vacation starting Monday! I wish you and yours a Merry Christmas!-Eric