Mid-Winter Scorecard and a Look Ahead

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Groundhog Day was a few days ago, and it's on February 2nd because it's nearly halfway between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox. So, we are a bit over halfway through Winter. I thought it would be a good time to see where we are in terms of historical Winters in Northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania.First of all, the Sun's rays are still definitely most directly aimed at the Southern Hemisphere but not as severely as earlier in the season! Here's how it looks from space this evening:IMG_0767We are also gaining daylight at a more rapid pace in February as the Sun gets a bit higher in the sky. We are gaining almost 2.5 minutes per day, as shown on the sun table for the rest of the month:sunOf course, we just got done with a pretty healthy snow and ice storm here, and we were not alone. Snow cover across the US is very extensive now, almost as extensive as it has been all season:uscoverCloser to home, notice the snow pack is not as deep near Youngstown as it is to our south and west:ohiocoverOk, so how is the winter shaping up? Cold and snowy, right?? Yes. But not nearly as cold and snowy as some seasons. Here's a graph showing average temperatures through this date since 1930:wintertempsColder than the past couple of winters, yes. But when ranking the winters since 1930, this season is just the 23rd coldest:tempranikAs far as snow, this season does not compare to the mega winter of 2010-11, but it's been a busy one:snowwinterWe are in 10th place on the list of snowiest winters since 1930:snowrankHow does this season compare to average? Above by quite a bit, but check out how it compares to that huge winter a few years ago:snowchartLooking ahead, well....1690017_280953372058313_2041150209_nBut seriously...we are locked into winter for the foreseeable future. The Wednesday evening temperature map tells the story:tempsThe next 2 weeks look to dominated by cold. Latest GFS ensemble model shows it:gefsNumbers on left side of chart are far temperatures will be above or below average ("0").Long range forecasting is very tricky and forecasts will change frequently. BUT, as of right now the "CFS" climate model shows relief in March:marchYES, that is an above-average temperature color over Ohio and western PA! Let's hope this pans out.Thanks for reading!Eric

Monday Morning Snow Storm Update

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Good morning all!Here's a quick update with what you need to know on the Tuesday night snow event.First of all, one storm is thankfully missing us today; it's a big deal for the East Coast. The storm that WILL impact the Valley Tuesday night is barely noticeable on the radar in the Southwest:rad Snow will begin around 7-9pm Tuesday evening. Here's what the radar should generally look like at the peak of the storm (around 1am Wednesday):NAM Notice the mixed precipitation will be MAINLY south of the WFMJ viewing area. That said, I think there is still a chance for some sleet to mix in from around Rt 224 on south. Where sleet occurs, snow totals will not be as high.BOTTOM LINE:1) Snow begins 7-9 pm Tuesday.2) Worst of storm: 10pm-3am. Snow will taper off quickly in the couple of hours before sunrise Wednesday.3) Snow totals: A general 3-7", with areas south of 224 (and especially south of Rt 30) closer to the 3" due to sleet mixing in. A little more than 7" is possible around the Interstate 80 corridor....but 3-7" should work out for the majority of the area.4) Leftover scattered snow showers on Wednesday could add small additional accumulations, generally under an inch.More updates this afternoon!Eric

No-Hype Analysis of Upcoming Weather Pattern, Including "Potential" Storm

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We are busting out of the Deep Freeze late this week, with temperatures in the 20s this afternoon, near freezing Friday and near 40 on Saturday. However, with a front settling across the region tonight through Saturday morning, a little snow will fall at times.One of the tools meteorologists use in the short range is the "Short Range Ensemble Forecast" model and it looks like this:srefThe most recent run of that model is the green line, while the oldest is the blue. The trend on this and other models has been LESS predicted snow each run. The most recent run gives the Youngstown area a total of 1.3" between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Snow that does fall will be very light and travel headaches should be minimal.By Saturday afternoon and evening, the atmosphere will have warmed enough that an approaching cold front will produce RAIN, not snow. Check out the nice surge of milder air coming north on Saturday's high temperature map:highssatBehind the cold front, next week will start colder, but thankfully not as cold as it has been.Now, what about the midweek storm????It seems likely that there will be a significant storm system approaching from the southwest late Tuesday into Wednesday. That said, the weather disturbance that will lead to the storm is wayyyyy out over the Pacific right now. In fact it's just south of Alaska:stormnowUntil the disturbance makes it onto the mainland US this weekend, computer models will not be completely trusted by experienced meteorologists.That said, right now the models have the same "general" idea with how things will evolve. Here's the European model for Tuesday night. It has low pressure in southwest Ohio, with a warm front nosing into northeast Ohio:EUROSTORMThe GFS model has a similar look:GFSSTORMIf this does in fact end up being the exact placement of these features, we would likely have several hours of snow Tuesday evening, then a risk for mixed precipitation. Why could freezing rain and/or sleet take over? The air 3,000-6,000 feet above our heads may warm to above freezing, resulting in falling snow melting.Here's the projected freezing line at around 5,000 feet Tuesday night at 1am:euro850As I said, until the weekend, I am going to take everything the models say with a grain of salt. I am showing you the most LIKELY scenarios based on the CURRENT information, but this information is likely to change at least a little over the next few days.IF mixed precipitation does occur, snow amounts could be cut by a significant margin. If there is little or no mixing, this storm, based on the current information, has the potential to bring at least a half a foot of snow.I will of course keep you updated here, on TV, on social media and on my Weather For Weather Geeks video.After the storm....COLD! Latest computer models paint a very cold picture for the 2nd week of February:gefsWinter is, sigh, FAR from over.Thanks for reading!Eric

Harsh Cold, Then a Break? What About February?

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"Winter Fatigue" is setting in, big time. Each time I have posted about the cold and snow on social media this week, the comments have shown that we are getting fed up with the icy grip Old Man Winter has on us.There are no changes to my thinking in how the weather will evolve over the next week. 3-5" of snow Friday night into Saturday...then another 2-4" Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. After that, BRUTAL cold Monday through Thursday. Wind chills will be as low as -30 or so Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Be sure and check in frequently on my Facebook and Twitter feeds for the latest.What about after that??? Well, first of all, it's much too early to say what the Summer will be like.   I will say that a cold winter usually does not mean it will be a cool or hot summer; there really is not much of a correlation most years.But we can take some educated guesses on Super Bowl/Groundhog Day weekend and February as a whole. Let's compare the weather pattern now vs. what is expected in 9 days (Super Bowl Sunday).Saturday's upper-air chart shows our Polar Vortex over Hudson Bay in Canada, with a MASSIVE ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. This pattern is allowing cold air to make a beeline straight from northern Canada into our region.sat500By February 2nd, the computer models are showing a pattern that is finally changing (at least temporarily):sbowl500Notice the Polar Vortex is farther north, closer to where it usually lives. Also notice the West Coast ridge has reoriented itself over the Gulf of Alaska. Now that that massive wall of high pressure is away from the West Coast, Pacific air (instead of arctic air) should be allowed to move across the country.SO HOW "WARM" MIGHT IT GET IN YOUNGSTOWN IN THIS PATTERN?30s, maybe 40!!!!! Break out the noisemakers and party hats.Back to January for a minute. It has been cold, yes, but we are not in the Top 10 coldest Januarys on record, YET.This month's average temperature: 21.0 degrees.dayfileHere's the top 10 coldest Januarys on record in Youngstown:coldjan19.2 degrees gets us on to the list. We will probably get there next week.I looked at a handful of the years in that list to see what February was like after that cold January. It's a mixed bag; some of those Februarys were warmer than average (which is 26.1 degrees), some colder:febsAs for this February...despite the early part of the month being much more tolerable than much of January has been.....long-range models and forecasters are indicating that overall it will be cold (with severe cold likely in Midwest/northern Plains):februarySpring begins March 20. Hang in there.Eric

Return of the Cheek-Numbing Cold

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Today begins an 8-9 day stretch of cold weather that will easily be the most prolonged bitter cold spell of the entire Winter. During the cold snap of 2 week ago, we had a morning with a low of -12 and the wind chill was around -35. This week will not feature readings that cold, but this stretch may be PERCEIVED as worse because of how long it will last.It's not often I can put out a 7 day forecast with this many "skinny numbers" on it:7day So which mornings will "feel" the worst?Here are Wednesday morning's projected Wind Chills:chillswedamThat's about -5 or so here (much worse in NW Ohio!)Here's Thursday morning:chillsthursamIt should feel like it is around zero or a bit lower.Friday morning is likely to feel quite a bit colder as a fresh batch of arctic air arrives:chillsfriamBack down to -5 or so.The WORST Wind Chills are likely to occur early NEXT week...check out next Tuesday morning's numbers:tuechills-25? Yuck.A couple of weeks ago, the term POLAR VORTEX got a lot of attention, in fact WAY too much attention. The Polar Vortex is a permanent feature in the northern latitudes. It is nothing new at all. Often when it gets cold in our part of the world, it's because the Polar Vortex has dipped south of its usual home....resulting in arctic air getting shoved south. This will happen over the next week or so.The Northern Hemisphere weather setup by Saturday will look like this:satglobeThe "L" is the Polar Vortex, centered over southern Canada. The big ridge of high pressure will remain over the West Coast, resulting in more dry weather where they desperately need rain.Next Tuesday....not much will have changed:nexttueglobeThe flow of air will be from the North Pole to the Plains to the East Coast. A cold flow, that's for sure.This stretch of harsh cold will go a long way toward determining how this Winter will go in the history books. From December 1 until now, it's actually been fairly typical in the temperature department. Many, many recent Winters have been colder through January 20 than the current one (blue circle):wintersThe winter of 1976-77 (and 1977-78) was remarkably cold, much colder than the rest of the last 40 winters.As I said, this cold snap will last 7-9 days, taking us almost to the end of the month. After that, long-range computer models suggest that February will start with more tolerable weather....perhaps near average for Groundhog Day. Average is the black straight line; the white boxes and green bars are the forecast:gefs Thanks for reading and have a great Tuesday!Eric