Blog: Wild Next 24 Hours; Harsh Cold To Return

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The day started frosty and foggy with temperatures in the 20s, but a strong warm front is tracking our way this morning with rain along it. Here's the radar snapshot around 9:30am:currentAmazing that there is lightning with this, considering it is occurring over a deep snowpack!Plan on a wet midday across the Valley. Here's the 1pm simulated radar:1pmsim After the first wave of rain lifts across the area, a break in the rain will occur for much of the late afternoon and evening hours. It will turn milder and we may reach our high VERY late in the day...perhaps after 9pm. Check out the temperature map for 9pm this evening, it's easy to pick out the warm front!9pmtempsNear 60 in central Ohio! We will probably get into the lower 50s this evening around Youngstown.The threat for severe weather is certainly highest from I-70 south. That's the area the Storm Prediction Center has outlined in the enhanced risk (yellow):day1There is a "moderate" risk of severe weather in Kentucky and Tennessee.The line of showers and thunderstorms that is expected to bring the threat for wind damage will roll through the Ohio Valley late this evening through the overnight. The simulated radar at 1:00am shows the line bearing down on NE Ohio/western PA:1amNotice the line looks more threatening with deeper reds from Columbus on south. Another source with a view of what the radar may look like around this time:1amradSo what do I expect to happen around the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys? A brief, perhaps less than 20 minute period of wind speeds that could exceed 45 mph as this line pushes through sometime between 11pm-2am. A period of pretty heavy rain around the same time.I think the risk for wind speeds high enough to cause damage is pretty low, but not zero. The wind at 3,000-5,000 feet will be SCREAMING and it won't take much to bring some of that wind energy down. The wind at 5,000 feet will be between 70-90 mph late this evening:850The threat for hail and tornadoes is very low.One thing for sure, we don't need this rain, with the deep snow pack and warming temperatures. Flooding is a concern, especially near rivers and in areas of poor drainage. Some basement flooding is possible. The snow pack contains about 1" of water right now. How much rain will fall? Looks like an average of 0.75-1.00".Here's the latest rain forecast from the NWS:qpfPretty close to 1".The latest SREF model, an ensemble model with 21 "members", gives an average of 1" or so, with a range of about 0.60" to 1.30":sref The latest river forecasts from the NWS show the Mahoning River rising above flood stage at Leavittsburg and Youngstown.Leavittsburg (notice crest is not until Saturday morning):leavYoungstown:yo Ice jams could cause additional problems.Finally, a look at the long range. Unfortunately, we are heading right back into the pattern that has produced the harsh cold for much of this winter. Take a look at the 5-10 temperature outlook across the country:5-10Temperatures may be around 10 degrees below average for that period (Feb 25-March 2) here.  The actual numbers (highs/lows) on this same model for the next 16 days are kind of obscene, especially right around the end of February and start of March:gefs Don't throw tomatoes at me!Eric   

Blog: Eventful Weather To Continue Into March

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There is so much to talk about in the world of weather that I could do 4 videos and 5 blog posts about this pattern if I wanted! So let's get right to it. We'll take things 1 "event" at a time.1) Monday night/Tuesday Morning's SnowWhat Went Right?-Timing was pretty good. The snow started and ended pretty much when it was supposed to.-Accumulations were, for the most part, within our forecasted range. There were, as always, some exceptions...Newton Falls picked up over 8".What Went Wrong?-I didn't anticipate the intense band of snow that rolled through between 4-5:30am; it had lightning and thunder with it! Here's what the radar looked like as it went through:radThat band drove snow totals to the top end (and in some cases, over) our forecast range.-I didn't play up the WIND enough. Blowing and drifting snow was a big issue!This map shows some of the snow reports received by the NWS:reportsAs you can see, amounts were highest from western Trumbull County on west.2) Severe Weather Threat? Thursday NightA strong cold front will march through the East late Thursday and Thursday night. With a foot of snow on the ground, it's hard to believe nasty thunderstorms are possible here, but it certainly cannot be ruled out. The higher threat is indeed to our west, as outlined by the Storm Prediction Center:day3 Between 10pm-2am, a line of thunderstorms with strong winds is likely to push east through eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The 1:00am Friday weather map shows strong low pressure over the northern lakes with showers and storms along a cold front in our region:sfcprecip Here is a closer look at the "simulated" radar at 1:00am:1amthurnight It certainly will not be warm and humid like during Spring/Summer thunderstorms, but there are reasons to think this line could be nasty. The 500 millibar chart, showing conditions in the atmosphere at around 18,000 feet, shows a strong low pressure center with lots of "vorticity", or spin:500The tilt of the system puts Ohio and Pennsylvania in a zone that is very favorable for rapidly rising air. Rising air is one of the ingredients needed for thunderstorms, and especially severe thunderstorms.The main threat will be WIND. The wind at around 5,000 feet above our heads will likely we screaming at 60-80 knots (about 70-90 mph) late Thursday evening. If some of that wind energy can get pulled down to the surface, wind can be a problem (again, especially in western Ohio). Here's the forecast wind speeds at 1am Friday morning at 5,000 feet:850wind 3) Potential For FloodingAll the snow recently has left us with a very healthy snow pack. It's as deep as a foot in spots. That snow is "holding" a lot of water. This map shows the "snow water equivalent", or about how much liquid is stored in the snow pack:snowwater Melt a chunk of that down and add a healthy dose of rain, and you have a recipe for potential flooding. Even if no thunderstorms survive this far east, up to an inch or so of rain is possible Thursday and Thursday night. Here's the NWS rain forecast. which I think is reasonable:qpf Also of concern with some f the thawing: ice jams on the rivers.The NWS outlook for the Mahoning River at Leavittsburg, Warren and Youngstown shows the possibility of the river reaching or exceeding flood stage Friday:leavwarrenyng I doubt a MAJOR flooding event is on our hands, but there may be some minor problems.4) Return of the Cold!Colder-than-average air will dominate the pattern at the end of February and early March. Here's the NWS 8-14 day temperature outlook, showing a high chance of cold weather in much of the East:8-14 Does that mean we will get a lot more snow? We can't say yet. Let's hope not. My back is tired from shoveling.5) Some OptimismFinally, the days ARE getting longer and eventually Spring will win the battle. Tuesday's sunset was at 6:00 and it feels good to think about the lighter, warmer evenings that are coming.sunsets  Thanks for reading!Eric

Blog: More Winter Before The Thaw

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Most of us are itching for a break from the relentless winter weather...and it is still coming. But before that milder air gets in here, we will be dealing with more cold and snow.Of course, it's been a very cold first half of February....not only here but in much of the country. Here's the temperature anomaly map for the month so far:febHere in Youngstown, we are running a whopping 9 degrees below average for the month so far.While we have a healthy snow pack here, there is actually quite a bit more snow on the ground to our east and west. Many places in northwest Ohio and central Pennsylvania have over 9" of snow on the ground (with many spots having well over a foot):depth Today, a pretty weak system will cruise through. Here's what the radar looked like at 8:30am:Capture The simulated radar at noon shows light snow across the Valley:hrrrnoon How much snow today? I still think generally 1/2" to 1". Watch for slick travel around midday and early afternoon. The snow will taper off and end later in the afternoon.A more significant low pressure area will track through the Valley late Monday and Monday night. Snow will begin just after sunset. While mixed precipitation will occur closer to Interstate 70, this looks to be all snow for the Valley. Here's how the radar should generally look at 7:00pm:ptypeThe pink color toward I-70 is the mix. There MIGHT be some sleet mixing in as far north as southern Columbiana County, but again this will be all snow for just about the entire WFMJ viewing area.How much??? Enough to shovel and plow, for sure. By the time the snow tapers off early Tuesday morning, I suspect an average of 3" will have accumulated in most spots.The SREF model has 21 "members". When you combine today's light snow with Monday night's snow, the forecast from those 21 members of the model range from 1" to 6". The average is 3.5":srefAnd I think that forecast is pretty realistic. 1/2" today, then 3" Monday night.What are the odds Monday night's system "overachieves" and gives us more than 4"? Low, but not super low. NOAA has the odds of more than 4" of snow around 40% here:oddsI would put the odds closer to 30% myself, but 40% is not unreasonable.After Monday night's snow, YES it is going to warm up. BUT, the warm up does not look as dramatic as we had hoped a few days ago. 60 does NOT look reachable now. But 50 is within reach. Here's a map of Thursday's highs on the European model:thurshighs Friday's highs:frihighs And Saturday's outlook:sathighs It may be tough to get out and enjoy Thursday's mild temperatures because rain is likely. Friday and Saturday should bring quieter weather.Enjoy the mild air if you can! Cold is likely to return after Saturday. The latest GFS Ensemble model's temperature outlook for the next 16 days looks like this:gefs And March? The latest climate models are painting a chilly picture for the month as a whole. Sure, there will be mild periods...but the month overall is likely to be colder than average.march Have a great Sunday and thanks for reading!Eric 

A Guide to the Next 10 Days of Weather

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I would like to think that, now that we are done with this morning's frigid temperatures, we are DONE with the worst of this winter's cold! This morning's lows were impressive. A clear sky and relatively fresh snowpack will give you temperatures like this:lows We have the cold, but at least we don't have the MESS that is occurring in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. This morning's radar is "pretty" but this is a serious situation in Georgia and the Carolinas:serad There will be tens or hundreds of thousands without power for days as a result of the ice accumulation. Major cities such as Charlotte will have their biggest snow event in years. If you have a flight out of PIT, CAK, or CLE over the next couple of days...call ahead as there may be travel delays. Not because of our weather, but because so many major hubs are dealing with the hideous weather.The storm is a miss for us...the snow will get about as far west as the Appalachian Mountains to our east tonight. Here's the simulated radar for the middle of the night:tonightradFor the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys, quiet weather will be the rule through Friday morning. Our next weather maker will be a weak "Alberta Clipper" system that is scheduled to arrive on Friday. The latest computer models are not that impressed with the system, generally giving us an inch or so Friday and Friday evening.This morning's SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) model looks like this:srefOn Friday (the 14th), the mean, or average of all 21 members of this model is 1/2 inch or so by Friday evening. Some members (each line represents one of the "members")  of the model give us more snow Saturday, but there is not much support on other models for that. I lean toward the idea a dry and cold Saturday for now.For a couple of days now you have (hopefully) heard me honking about a BIG warmup next week. It still looks on track for late in the week. The pattern will undergo a very significant change across the country over the next 10 days. Have a look at the pattern today vs. what is expected in 9 days:Today: a trough of low pressure over the Midwest and Southeast.500today Next Friday: A massive ridge off the coast of the Southeast, and a trough out west:500nextfri We have not seen that kind of a look on a weather map in a long time! This will open the floodgates to some very mild air. Here's the GFS Ensemble model temperature forecast for next 16 days:gefshighs Notice we reach the mid 50s late next week, then cool off....BUT no harsh cold returns to the pattern.The European model says 60! Sixty!!! is on the table late next week:euronextfri Finally today, I love statistics and charts and what not, so here are a few that show how this winter season is shaping up compared to others.Total snowfall:snow Number of days with at least 1" of snow on the ground:depth Number of mornings below zero (we added one to this this morning):belowzero Thanks for reading!Eric

Mmmmmmm, Humble Pie! Sunday Snow Thoughts:

in

humble_pieFirst of all, I want to apologize for the bad forecast. Saturday night/Sunday's snow was a true forecast "bust". I walked out of work at 12:05am Friday night confident that any snow over the weekend would be "no big deal". I took Saturday off and nursed my bad cold.So I was just as surprised as you when I woke up to a few inches of snow Sunday morning!So, what happened? Essentially, many of the computer models we use as tools to help us forecast the weather did not pick up on how intense the system would be until the last minute. The models were fooled....and as a result, human forecasters (myself included) were fooled.That does not excuse the bad forecast, as our job is to add value to the models, to be able to sense when they have the wrong idea and to adjust forecasts accordingly.I have been forecasting professionally for over 12 years and have had many forecast busts. I know this: each bust makes me a better forecaster. Lessons are learned. The busts motivate me to work even HARDER.So again, if your plans were inconvenienced on Sunday as a result of more snow than was expected....I am sorry and we will get 'em next time!Now, some good news! Milder weather looks to be on the way for the last 10 days of February:cfs_anom_t2m_conus_2014021000_x81