BLOG: Despite Teases, True Spring in Hiding

in

We have certainly had some nice Spring days so far this April, including the few days that preceded today.  After a long Winter, we have deserved each and every one of them! Check out the temperature anomalies for April so far...colors we have not seen here in a long time! aprilBUT....there are ominous signs that consistent Spring warmth is still a ways off for us.First of all, in the very near term, YES you might see a flurry/snow shower very late tonight and early Wednesday. Best chance in the WFMJ viewing area is probably in Mercer and Trumbull counties. Check out the latest simulated radar on the HRRR model for daybreak Wednesday: hrrr_ref_cleveland_14One of the big reasons we have to be on guard for cooler-than-average weather this Spring is the VERY cold, and still somewhat icy Great Lakes. The ice cover this late in the season is pretty remarkable. Here's how it stands: glsea_curNotice Lake Superior is still almost completely covered in a (thin) layer of ice! MODIS imagery shows this nicely as well: t1.14110.1713.CIS_Great_Lakes.143.250mCheck out how the current ice coverage on the lakes compares to years past at this point in the season: 20140421180000_CVCHDCTGL_0007628828Wow.So there will continue to be a constant risk of air masses getting "refrigerated" by these large bodies of water over the coming weeks.....making them colder than they would be normally.As if this were not enough to be concerned about, next week's weather pattern could be UG-LY across the region...not because of the Great Lakes, but because an upper-level low pressure system seems destined to get "stuck" across the eastern US. This will probably lead to a pattern of cool and wet weather for us. Watch how little this thing is likely to move in a 5 day period:Next Wednesday: wedThursday: thursFriday: friSaturday: satSunday: sunYuck. How cool? How much rain? It's too early to know those answers. But sunny, 70-80 degree days at the end of April and start of May? Forget it.Would be nice to donate some of next week's rain to the West. We are in no danger of a drought here, as shown on the latest Palmer Drought Severity Index: palmerThanks for reading!Eric 

BLOG: Tax Day Trouble?

in

The weekend will be just about perfect, and I would not be totally shocked if a few backyard thermometers hit 80 Sunday! Enjoy.Now, the bad news. It's still the first half of April and we can't expect "sunny and 75-80" to be our forecast on a consistent basis. Winter still has a little fight left! First of all, Monday will still be quite warm. But, it's easy to see where the next strong cold front will be in the afternoon: montempsBy early afternoon, Toledo will likely already have dropped into the 40s...while NE Ohio and western PA will be in the 70s.With this type of air mass change, you would expect rain...and you would be right. Showers will push in Monday afternoon and evening.What about thunder? I think there will be some, but not a ton. There is a modest amount of "Convective Available Potential Energy", or CAPE Monday afternoon. CAPE is essentially a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is. The more unstable...the better chance of thunderstorms. Monday afternoon: capeNot exactly off the charts.There is a fair amount of wind energy in the atmosphere Monday; so any strong shower or thunderstorm can pull down some hefty winds from up to the 5,000 foot level. Winds at that level will be approaching 50-60 mph by late afternoon: 850wind The Storm Prediction Center has the area in the "general thunderstorm" zone Monday, but not in any sort of enhanced risk. The air mass just will not be unstable enough, mostly as a result of it not being terribly moist. day3OK, now about the SNOW risk that you may have heard be chirping about over the last couple of days. Monday's cold front will be slowed down by a developing wave of low pressure along the southern half of it. Moisture will linger over eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania....and by Tuesday morning the air will have cooled significantly.I suspect it is going to snow Tuesday, especially in the morning/midday hours. I DON'T think this will be a problem on roads, as temperatures will be above freezing in most areas. But I can see how many locations get accumulations on the grass. A look at accumulation forecasts from the current computer models:European: eurosnowAn inch or two.GFS: gfsUnder an inch.Canadian: can2-3 inches.I suspect that accumulations on grassy surfaces will average 1/2"-1" across the Valley. That said, we are 3 days away from this so keep checking in with my thoughts on Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Whatever does stick will melt very quickly Wednesday. Another warming trend will kick in at the end of next week.Thanks for reading!Eric  

BLOG: A Bit of Everything!

in

I thought I would touch on several different subjects today since there are no HUGE weather stories coming up. It is a beautiful day today, and Thursday looks good as well. This evening, grab a jacket and look skyward as there are a couple of cool things happening. As you may have heard me talking about, Mars is at "opposition" right now. What's the mean??? Well, the planets travel around the Sun at different speeds and trajectories. But once every 2 years, Mars and the Earth "line up" briefly, with the Earth directly between Mars and the Sun. This makes Mars appear particularly bright.An illustration, from the iOS App "Solar Walk" (A great app...costs a few bucks but is stunning): marsMars will rise around sunset in the eastern sky and will move almost right overhead after midnight.  Look for the brightest object. A good telescope or even binoculars will allow you too see the planet's trademark red tint.Also tonight, an excellent pass of the International Space Station. Here are the details: issOk, as for WEATHER, the next couple of days are looking good...although Thursday will be windy. Sustained winds by afternoon will probably be in the 15-25 mph range with gusts to 40: sfcwindAnd Holy Turbulence Alert for planes landing or taking off...winds at 5,000 feet will be up around 70-80 mph in parts of the region: 850 Rain will visit us a couple of times in the coming week, namely Thursday night/early Friday and Sunday night/Monday. Monday could be a real soaker, depending on the speed of the front (which is still up for debate). Total rain over the next week may be 1.5-2" across the region: qpfThere are a lot of forecasting challenges early next week revolving around the speed of a strong cold front and how much moisture will be lingering when the coldest of the air arrives. It is not outside of the realm of possibilities that we see snowflakes next Monday night. The European model gives some accumulations to the parts of the Great Lakes region: eurosnowThat's just one run of one model and again, uncertainty is quite high. Something to keep in mind though.A word about the longer range. Overall, a somewhat cooler than average pattern seems likely for the next 10-14 days. It's April now so a cooler than average day can still mean a high of 54. But still, there are not many signs of our first 80 degree day in this 10-14 day period. The Climate Forecast System model shows a cool-ish 10 day period from April 13-23: 1424 The same model does bring in the warmth at the end of April and start of May. Here's April 23-May 3: 244Let's hope that is right.Now, the REAL long range. You may have heard that El Nino is likely to come on strong this Summer and Fall. A reminder: El Nino is a significant warming of the waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean: elninowatertemperatureThis warming can influence global weather patterns and the strong ones (like we had in 1997-98) can have very significant consequences in many regions of the world. Some of those consequences are very bad and strong El Ninos have been known to contribute to many deaths, particularly in less developed countries.In our part of the world, the effects of an El Nino event are most pronounced in the WInter, although a somewhat cooler-than-average Summer season can sometimes result. ninoWinters tend to be warmer than average around here in El Nino situations. Stay tuned on this, as we will surely have a better grasp on the intensity of the El Nino in a couple of months.Thanks for reading!Eric

BLOG: Rain? Yes. Severe Weather? Maybe.

in

We have enjoyed some great weather this week, but things are about to change. THe radar looks pretty imposing this morning: currentThat slug of rain will come through the Valley this afternoon and evening. Outdoor plans for after work/school are washed out today.Today is the 40th anniversary of the Super Outbreak of 1974, which included the devastating tornado in Xenia, about 4 hours southwest of Youngstown. outbreakmaplargeSo it seems somewhat appropriate to mention that severe weather season is starting to kick into high gear. Today will be a very busy day across the Mississippi Valley. Each of these maps shows the odds of an event (tornado, damaging wind gust, large hail) occurring within 25 miles of any point.Tornadoes: torday1Hail: day1hailDamaging wind: day1windNo severe weather is expected in northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania today. But tomorrow brings somewhat higher odds. A well-defined cold front will slice into warm and rather humid air across the Buckeye State and western PA:   tomorrow The Storm Prediction Center odds of severe weather of any kind within 25 miles of any location: day2I am doubtful that there will be many thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather here tomorrow. Why? The instability in the atmosphere, needed to cause lots of rising motion, isn't very high. One measure of instability is something we call CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy. We like to see CAPE values over 1,000 when looking for a widespread severe weather "event"...but values tomorrow are closer to 500: capeClouds are mostly to blame for the lack of instability. Clouds will prevent heating and destabilization of the lower atmosphere most of the day. By the time the sun tries to come out late in the afternoon, it may be too late for any storms to pop.But, IF any storms do get going, there is lots of wind energy aloft for them to pull down. Winds at 5,000 feet will be screaming at 50-75 mph tomorrow afternoon: 850windSo, bottom line: severe weather is not very likely tomorrow, BUT if any stray storms get going, they could produce hefty, and perhaps damaging winds.Rainfall totals over the next 60 hours will average 1.0"-1.5" across the Valley. This should not be enough to lead to flooding problems, even in flood prone areas. The Mahoning RIver at Leavittsburg will crest around 7 feet or so: leavNotice that 2nd "rise" in the graph on the right hand side. More rain is coming Monday and that will lead to rising water levels. When you add up the 2 rain events (today/tomorrow and Monday), rainfall totals will likely exceed 2" in our region: qpfAfter this unsettled period, it looks to warm back up and Spring will kick into high gear with lots of things blooming!Thanks for reading,Eric