BLOG: One-Two Punch of Severe Cold Coming; Some Snow Too

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February has started quite cold across the Valley but the weather over the next 5-7 days will probably cement February 2015 as one of the coldest on record around here.The cold will come in two waves. The first cold front is out over the Plains this morning: CaptureThis front will spark some snow showers, starting early this evening. 5pm simulated radar: 5pmSnow showers will visit occasionally overnight into Thursday. Thursday 8am predicted radar: 8amSnow accumulations will be pretty modest in the Valley; generally a coating to an inch...possibly two. Here are the NWS odds of more than 1" of snow: oddsHighest NE of Youngstown.Wind chills (and temperatures) will drop all day Thursday. So, it will feel quite a bit worse AFTER work/school than before. Wind chills at 7am: thursamchills7pm: 7pmchillsthurs7am Friday...wind chills still around -10 or so: 7amfridaychillsWinds on Thursday will be sustained at 12-22mph with gusts to 30. A harsh afternoon! thurswinds Friday will be a very cold day but at least the wind will diminish.Saturday's system will be stronger with even colder air behind it. Here's the weather map at midday Saturday: satsfcThis shows lots of snow showers swirling around the Great Lakes. Notice how closely packed the isobars (lines of equal pressure) are. Will turn very windy. Temperatures will fall all afternoon. There can probably be 1-3" of snow Saturday and the wind will cause a lot of blowing snow. Cleared roads can be covered up again by blowing snow, especially in open areas. Have a date night planned for Valentine's Day? Get ready for wind chills that look like this: 7pmsatchillsThe wind will continue to crank Saturday night into Sunday and with the coldest air of the season drilling in, conditions will turn dangerous by the start of Sunday. Frostbite can occur in 15-30 minutes in these conditions: 7amsundaychillsBe ready for these possibilities Sunday morning:1) Frozen pipes2) Car batteries dying3) Pets needing to stay indoorsThe HIGH Sunday may not be much higher than 1-3 ABOVE zero. There is a chance Sunday is the coldest February day on record in Youngstown. Records: coldestAnd that's not the end of the story. While we are a long way from knowing the details, there's a decent chance for a winter storm Tuesday, as shown on the GFS model: tuesdayAgain, we don't know the details at this early stage. Stay tuned.The long range is not encouraging if you don't like cold! The 8-16 day forecast features lots and lots of cold in our part of the country: 8to16   

BLOG: Major Winter Storm Pounces Sunday/Sunday Night

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Good morning! As I promised last evening on Facebook and Twitter, this morning is the moment that we have to really hone in on the storm for Sunday and Sunday night. The computer models have come into pretty good agreement and have shifted the track of the system fairly substantially over the last 24 hours. What does this mean?SNOW! And potentially lots of it. Let's go step by step.At 7am Sunday, some light snow will be pushing in. Roads can get slick quickly Sunday morning even if the snow if light. 7amBy midday, steady snow will be ongoing..ands probably starting to pick up in intensity. 1pm: 1pm As we are settling in to watch the Super Bowl (on 21 WFMJ, of course) it should be snowing at a good clip. Stay in if you can. Travel will be tough. 7pmFrom this point through the overnight hours, the snow will probably be pretty heavy. 1am: 1amBy daybreak Monday, the worst will be over but it roads are probably still going to be pretty messy. 7am: 7ammondayOk, so how much snow are we looking at? One way to look at snow predictions is by examining the percent chance of an amount of snow accumulating. Sometimes this is more useful than "xx" number of inches, especially a couple of days from a storm. It helps convey the degree of confidence we have.NWS odds of more than 1" (through daybreak Monday. There can be small additional accumulations after that point).  Really high: 1inch2 inches: 2inch4 inches: 4inch6 inches: 6inchand finally 8 inches: 8inchI think these percentages are reasonable and would not be surprised if they are raised a bit later today, especially north of I-70.Here's our initial snow forecast. Keep in mind....this is the FIRST stab. As you know, a wobble in the expected storm track can sometimes make a big difference. CHECK THE FORECAST OFTEN TODAY AND TOMORROW on social media, TV and wfmj.com. snowmapbigsnowmapcloseThis has the potential to be our biggest snow event of the season so far.Keep in mind: This will be an almost 24 hour event! Plan accordingly.Impacts on roads will be high and I suspect Monday will feature plenty of school delays or cancellations. IMPACTSMuch more this afternoon on "Weather For Weather Geeks", Facebook and Twitter. A full update on 21 News at 6&11. Thanks for reading!Eric

BLOG: Strongest "Clipper" of the Season Sunday

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It has been a very average Winter so far in the snow department; much of the snow the region has picked up has been by way of "Alberta Clippers", the fast-moving areas of low pressure that originate in western Canada and swing through the Great Lakes region. We have another one of those types of systems coming Sunday, but this will be the strongest one of the season so far.First off: a disclaimer....this remains a somewhat low-confidence forecast. I'll show you why in this Blog. Check the forecast often over the next 36 hours as small changes in the track of the system can result in significant changes to the snow totals.I always think it is interesting to look at how innocuous high-impact systems can look a couple of days before they cruise through. Sunday's storm is just a "blip" in the overall flow of air at 18,000 feet over the eastern Pacific. 500nowBut this ripple in the flow will become more of a "wave" as it heads over the ridge on the West Coast and dives into the Midwest of the US.By early Sunday afternoon, the system will be over Illinois, with snow spreading east: 1pm I think snow will start off light in the early afternoon, but will pick up in intensity as the storm makes its way into Indiana and southern Ohio in the early evening: 7pmThe heaviest of the snow will fall in the evening, and then the snow will begin to taper off overnight as the system pushes east: 1amBy daybreak Monday, the worst of the storm will be long over, but it can still be snowing lightly and road crews will probably still be in "catch up" mode. 7amThe TRACK of the system is going to be very important as it will determine where the heaviest band of snow sets up. A 50-100 mile change can make a big difference. Remember the map I showed at the top, indicating the disturbance that will become our storm is still over the Pacific? Until it gets over land and can be "sampled", the computer models will not have the optimum amount of information about the system "baked into" them. So, we likely will not have a high degree of confidence in the track until tomorrow.Have a look at a few dozen versions of the latest European model (in other words, the "ensemble" version of the model). Sunday afternoon the "L"s are packed pretty close together in Indiana, meaning the model has a decent amount of confidence in the location of the storm at that time: ens1pmBut by evening, the L's are a little more scattered...so the model is less sure where the center of the system will be at that time: ens7pmWant to be a meteorologist? Figuring this stuff out is FUN, I admit...like piecing together a puzzle. But it is also maddening because we know that the viewers/followers do not like uncertainty and one of the things that we are not great at is COMMUNICATING degrees of uncertainty. One of the hot topics in the field of meteorology is the communication of uncertainty and how we can be better.One way to communicate it is by using percentages. The odds of something happening. That's why I like these maps. Here's the NWS odds of more than 2" of snow with Sunday's storm: 2inchesVery good odds.   How about 4"? Here ya go: 4inchesPretty decent, 40-50% locally. Then the odds go way down for 6": 6inches So, as of Friday morning, I like a general 3-5" storm for the WFMJ viewing area. But again, this is not etched in stone. Check back often. I will have a full update on "Weather For Weather Geeks" this afternoon as well as on 21 News at 6&11. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!Eric