WEATHER BRIEFING SEPTEMBER 17

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning! The stretch of sunny and dry weather continues today with temperatures a good 10-11 degrees above average this afternoon.HIGHSTODAYYFRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Looking great this week with dry weather and a partly cloudy sky. Temperatures at kickoff will be on the mild side for mid-September.8pSATURDAY: The weekend will start with dry and mild weather Saturday morning. The threat for wet weather is expected to increase as we go into the afternoon and a cold front approaches. I think the highest risk for showers and thunderstorms will come after 3pm. Here's the weather map late Saturday afternoon:SATEVEIt will turn more humid Saturday and this is a pretty decent front. The threat for severe weather is not real high but it is not zero. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of northern Ohio in the "Marginal" risk zone:DAY3SUNDAY: A MUCH cooler day despite sunshine returning. Looks like temperatures will stay in the 60s and it will be much less humid. Still, a pleasant Fall day.EARLY NEXT WEEK: After a tranquil Monday, moisture might try to sneak back in from the south on Tuesday....a bit of rain is possible.TUELONG RANGE: Looks like a mild pattern as we head toward the end of September. Average highs are in the mid 60s by the end of the month but we should have plenty of days above that.KYNG_2015091700_min_max_1612022412_514198955400419_2867491298277937177_oWEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: This evening we will take a more in-depth look at Saturday's storm threat and examine the long-range models in more detail. Look for the video between 7:30-8:00.

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Well the weekend was a clunker, especially Saturday. BUT! This week will be weather perfection. Sunshine, warmer temperatures, low humidity. Great stuff.TODAY: High pressure to our south will bring plenty of sunshine today.nowAfter a cool start, temperatures will get back into the lower 70s this afternoon. A little shy of average but much nicer than the weekend!highstodayTUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:Hardly a cloud in the sky. Comfortable mornings. Warm afternoons. By Thursday, highs will be well above average.thursFRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Looks dry and warm this week. Temperatures falling through the 70s and into the upper 60s in the evening.FRIWEEKEND:Computer models are in good agreement that Saturday will feature our next chance for rain as a cold front slides through. At this point, Sunday is looking dry.LONG RANGE: No big swings are being shown by the models right now. Here's the 16 day numbers off one of our long-range models (GFS ensemble). There is a chance that the numbers in the 12-16 day period are too low.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: New video this evening with an examination of Saturday's rain chances and more on the long range temperature and precipitation trends. Look for it here and on wfmj.com/weather.

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning all,After a damp and cloudy start to the day, some sunshine will work in this afternoon. Dewpoints much more tolerable today after a long stretch of humid weather.thisamFRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:A dry, pleasant morning and early afternoon will be followed by an increase in clouds by late afternoon Friday. Some showers will push in during the evening so the rain gear is not a bad idea if you will be at a game. Unlike last week, I do NOT expect any issues with lightning this week. Temperatures will fall back onto the 60s in the evening.fri8pmTHE WEEKEND:An upper level trough will evolve into an upper level low pressure system as it dies south and east. This will slow down the progress of the system and that is not good news for the weekend forecast.ezgif.com-video-to-gifSaturday will bring some light rain at times...it may be steadiest in the morning.satnamTemperatures will struggle and we should stay in the 60s.sathighsOn Sunday, the rain will be quite a bit more infrequent but there will be some showers around. There's even a chance for thunder, thanks to Lake Erie. Will be very unstable over the warm lake so lake-effect rain and even thundershowers are possible....especially closer to the lake of course. Waterspouts will probably be seen as well.sunhighsNEXT WEEK:Summer is far from over. Warm air will return.....not at the level we were just at but still well above average.16day

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Gooood morning to ya,The much-anticipated cold front is off to our west this morning.nowThis is the front that will put an end to the heat wave....although today will still be quite humid. We don't expect much rain during the daylight hours today. A spotty shower/storm. The most numerous showers will likely be after sunset this evening. 15 hour futurecast (HRRR model):hrrr_2015090911_ref_clevelandTHURSDAY:Clouds should break for some sunshine and lower dewpoint air will finally make inroads. Check out the dewpoint trend over the next several days. The air is going to feel much different.DEWFRIDAY: A calm day with a temperature rebound. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80.HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: The next front will approach and there might be showers around for H.S. games in the evening. At this point, I am NOT expecting lightning.WEEKEND: Welp. We are due for a clunker and it is looking more and more like we have one on our hands. A pretty weak low will form along the cold front, slowing the front down and keeping us in the clouds Saturday. A cool NNE flow will develop. Showers can occur at times.SATTemperatures will struggle....may not do much better than the mid 60s.HIGHSSATOn Sunday, that weak low will get an injection of energy and it will actually back westward, keeping us "in the muck". More showers and perhaps even cooler temperatures. 60-65 for the high?SUNLONG RANGE: Better things to come after the weekend. In fact, 80+ a good bet for at least a couple of days next week.16DAYWEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:New video this evening by around 8:00. Will take a more in-depth look at the weekend forecast challenges...and will check in with the climate models to see what the October and November trends are.

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Well, September is off to a pretty amazing start. Look at the temperature anomaly map...lots of orange and red!anomIn fact, this was the 2nd hottest first week of September on record in Youngstown.hottestBack to work, back to school....back to the heat today. We expect it to be just as warm as yesterday and maybe even a degree or two warmer. A high of 92 would be the warmest temperature in over 3 years in Youngstown.BUT, cooler air is on the move:TEMPSWEDNESDAY: Certainly not a washout but a shower can occur anytime and there can be a couple of thunderstorms around in the afternoon. There is not much going on in the atmosphere that would cause widespread severe weather. Mainly just some garden-variety summer storms. The Storm Prediction Center has the Valley in the "non-severe" zone:DAY2THURSDAY:Sluggish front may bring a little more rain in the morning but the afternoon should be dry with falling dewpoints. Open up those windows Thursday night!FRIDAY:A comfortable day with highs in the upper 70s and some sunshine. Next front arrives Friday night with some showers around.WEEKEND:Cooler than average. Best chance for spotty showers will be Saturday. Might not be much more than sprinkles. Highs in the lower 70s Saturday and mid 70s Sunday.LONG RANGE:Not much to write home about as far as trends next week....looks like a typical mid September week with somewhat warmer-than-average temperatures.16dayWEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:For more in-depth weather analysis, check out Weather For Weather Geeks, my daily video. It'll be online this evening around 7:45-8:00.

LABOR DAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning and happy Labor Day!We have two more days of high heat to get through. Today will be sunny and dry with highs around 90-91 in many spots. Heat index values a bit above that. The record high today is 91, set in 1985.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_1 (1)Hottest Labor Days on record in Youngstown:ldayTomorrow will be a carbon copy of today and perhaps even a degree warmer! Rough day at schools that do not have air conditioning.WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The cold front that will sweep away the heat will also spark some showers and thunderstorms at times Wednesday and Wednesday night. A couple of storms could be on the strong side.wedsThe front will slow down and will still be close enough to us that some showers may linger into Thursday, especially in the morning.thursThe rain is great news overall....it of course has been very dry.cropsFRIDAY AND WEEKEND: AHHHHHH. Refreshing air mass will be overhead and a reinforcing cold front is likely to pass through Friday night into Saturday morning. It could bring a couple of showers. Highs this weekend may be no better than 70 or so. Sunday should be a beautiful day.16 day temperatures off the GFS ensemble model:16dayLONG RANGE: Temperatures should get back to average (mid 70s) next week. Chance for some warmer-than-average days as well as we go deeper into the week.WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:Will cut a video around 7:30 this evening...look for it on EricWFMJ.com, wfmj.com/weather and Facebook/Twitter. This evening's video will take a more thorough look at the long range but will also focus on the potential for strong storms Wednesday.

SUNDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good morning! A reminder that I will be in the WFMJ tent with Bob, Leslie and Dana this afternoon from 1-5. Come say hello!The first 5 days of September have been very warm...in fact it is the 5th warmest open to September on record in Youngstown.warmseptsToday will, of course, be another scorcher with highs in the upper 80s.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_1What about rain? Well it will be much like the last few days....very widely scattered showers/storms this afternoon and evening. Most will not see rain but those who do could get a tropical downpour that lasts a while. 5pm simulated radar:5pLABOR DAY:Confident Monday will be a dry day everywhere and a HOT holiday for all. 90-91 degrees and heat index values a couple of notches above that. Hottest Labor Days:ldayTUESDAY:Back to work, back to school and....the hottest day of the summer??? Think Tuesday will be just as warm and perhaps a touch warmer than Monday. Schools without A/C are going to be....unpleasant.WEDNESDAY:Pattern-changing cold front finally arrives. A couple of showers and thunderstorms are likely and it will not be as hot.wedsLONG RANGE:What a change coming behind this front! Models have been trending cooler for the end of the week and weekend. Here are the numbers off the GFS ensemble model:16dayHave a great rest of the weekend!

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)TODAY: A pretty similar day to Tuesday and Wednesday! Plenty of heat and humidity with a shower or storm in a small fraction of the region.DEWhighstodayheatindex15 hour simulated radar:hrrr_2015090311_ref_clevelandThis will be one of the hottest openings to September on record in Youngstown with highs in the 80s to near 90 through at least Tuesday the 8th. Looking back at the record book, the hottest start to the month I could find was 1961:1961FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:More of the same, basically. Small chance for a shower or storm Friday and Saturday, but then Sunday and Monday will be dry and stifling.CANFIELD FAIR SCHEDULE:I will be in the WFMJ tent Saturday from 9am-1pm and Sunday from 1pm-5pm. Come over and say hi!LONG RANGE: A difficult forecast for the period after that holiday weekend as a slow-moving, wavy front will meander through the region, providing a few chances for rain. The heat will be trimmed but it won't exactly be crisp and cool just yet.

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good morning and happy start of the Canfield Fair....TODAY: After a high of 89 Tuesday, the temperature will fall just shy of that mark today but 87 with high humidity will not feel any different than it did Tuesday. Only a 10-20% chance of an isolated shower or storm this afternoon.highstodayhrrr_ref_cleveland_9Find some shade at the fair and stay hydrated.fairTHURSDAY: We may need to add a small chance for an afternoon shower or storm with another weak disturbance rolling through the state. Still, the vast majority of the day will be dry, hot and humid. Highs in the mid 80s.FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY: HOT! And dry. I suspect the numbers on this chart are a  bit too low. We could be near 90 over the weekend.KYNG_2015090200_min_max_16LONG RANGE: Notice the cool down after the holiday weekend in the graph above? Not sure if it will be that pronounced....at least at first. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the long range with the timing of fronts, air mass changes, etc. Stay tuned.Have a great Wednesday!

BLOG: METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER REVIEW AND FALL FORECAST

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(Click images to enlarge)As you may know, "meteorological summer" is considered to be the 3 warmest months of the year, June, July and August. The "astronomical" seasons are the ones that are more frequently used and of course are based on the Earth's orbit around the Sun. Astronomical Autumn begins on September 23. But since this is a meteorology blog...."summer" is now over and we can review how it went.First, the raw numbers. Temperature-wise, this was a pretty typical summer! As you can see, we finished 0.1 degrees above average:summerstatsThe hottest temperature was 91 degrees, which is not all that high but remember in 2014 we did not have ANY 90 degree days. It is possible that the temperature gets near that 91 degree mark over the next few days but I doubt it is exceeded.Looking across the country, it was a cool summer for the Midwest and Plains states:summertempsA warm season for the Northwest and much of the Southeast.RAIN was really this story this summer. June was EXCEPTIONALLY wet with a little over 9 inches of rain at the airport (3rd wettest June on record). Some rain gauges showed over 12 inches. The pattern flipped dramatically in July and it has been VERY dry ever since.For the summer, rainfall totals were above average in most of the area and near average in some spots:rainanomBut take away June and it is a whole different story! Here's July and August:RAINJUL1That wet June really skews the numbers. Summer 2015 was actually the 2nd wettest season in the last 20 years....but you would not know it by all the brown lawns now!SUMMERRAINCHARTSo, "abnormally dry" conditions are present across the Valley as we start Fall.droughtFALL FORECAST: For "Meteorological Fall" (September, October, November), we are expecting a pretty easy-going season. The forecast from the Climate Prediction Center has "equal chances" of a cooler than average and warmer than average season:cpctempMeanwhile, the models are showing a warm season for the region and I tend to agree with the models' assessment.CFSAUTUMNThere of course will be plenty of chilly days but the 3 months as a whole should shake out to be warmer than average.In the rain department, the CPC again shows "equal chances":cpcrainThe climate models do not have a strong signal either way.CFSAUTRAINSo the 3-month period is likely to be fairly typical as far as rain amounts.WINTER FORECAST Our Winter outlook will be released on TV and online at the end of October or perhaps the first week of November. I will continue to preview the forecast from time to time on my Weather For Weather Geeks video over the next couple of months as new information becomes available.Thanks for reading!Eric