TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
The next 5 days will be the busiest of the winter season in the weather department....of course that is not exactly saying all that much. Let's start with a fairly quiet day today.While there can be a passing flurry at any point today, the highest chance of a snow shower that could coat the grass will be toward sunset. Here's the HRRR model simulated radar:
Notice that band of darker blue that is shown to move through around sunset.Temperatures will not move much today, staying between 32-35 just about all day and then dropping after sunset:
ARCTIC PUNCH #1
The first of 2 arctic fronts will approach and then cross the area tonight through Wednesday. This will lead to a higher chance for snow showers and perhaps some heavier squalls. It will turn windy and colder as well....truly feeling like winter.NAM model simulated radar through early Thursday:
How much snow? I think a general 1-3" can accumulate tonight through Wednesday night. Some higher totals are possible closer to the snowbelt in northern Trumbull and Mercer.Computer model plumes:
The National Weather Service has a Lake Effect Snow Watch out for the snow belt counties.
The wind chills are likely to be between zero and -5 by daybreak Thursday. Probably not enough for school adjustments, but we shall see.
Friday morning's wind chills will be in the same ballpark.
ARCTIC PUNCH #2
The 2nd and stronger front will approach on Friday. Much of Friday morning and early afternoon will be tranquil but I suspect some snow will return later in the day and continue into Friday night as the front moves through.
This could result in a general couple/few inches of new accumulation.The coldest weather of the whole winter will occur this weekend. Temperatures Saturday are likely to struggle to reach 10 and 6-7 degrees may about do it.Wind chills will be WAY below zero all day Saturday.
Sunday will not be as harsh but still quite cold with highs 15-20. At least there will be some sun as high pressure moves overhead.
LONG RANGE
The cold will not stick around long (typical of this winter). Next week looks milder and we could have some days in the 40s. No harsh arctic attacks look likely in the final days of February. That is how it looks now but of course long-range forecasts are always subject to some adjustments.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
February forecasts off to a good start.....some challenging ones ahead!
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While we can't rule out some wet snowflakes trying to mix in this afternoon, this will mainly be rain. The chance for some wet snow will increase after sunset as temperatures cool.
NWS snow forecast through Wednesday evening shows the possibility of a handful of inches in total, especially in the northern viewing area.
iOS users: It should be in the App Store in 4-9 days.Well yesterday's 62 was a record for that date, smashing the old record of 55. How does it compare to all-time February warmth? 62 is not that high on the list, actually. The warmest February day on record in Youngstown occurred in 2000.
This morning we have a sea of clouds and that will keep temperatures from moving much all day.
Some passing flurries will be a possibility. 15 hour futurecast:
Rain and snow showers on Monday as we cool off.
The rest of the week will feature NO big storms but plenty of cold, gusty northwest winds....snow showers and flurries....and mostly minor accumulations. It is possible that some places will end up with a few inches on the ground by the end of the week.
The rain has pushed east this morning and we await the dry slot of this system. When that works in this afternoon, temperatures will blast off into record territory. Today's record of 55 is packing it's bags.
The wind will become more of a factor as well, especially when we get some sunshine. There could be some gusts to 40 mph or so.
While no big storms are likely, we can get "nickled and dimed" by flurries and snow showers at times next week.
As you can see, the cold is not likely to last long. The pattern during the final 10-12 days of February does NOT look like one that will support much cold.
Meanwhile, a major storm system is producing heavy snow and lots of wind in the middle of the country:
As this comes east, it will draw Gulf moisture northward and a Spring-like outbreak of severe weather is likely by this evening across the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys.
Rain totals will average 0.50"-0.75" with some places perhaps getting an inch.
Temperatures will spike into record territory after the rain tomorrow. The record is 55 but we think readings will make it into the lower 60s!
Friday will be sunnier and a bit warmer.
Notice, the biggest one-day snow was a paltry 2.6" on the 12th. The coldest temperature was 5 degrees, reached 3 times. Overall a pretty tame month....as expected. Our winter forecast called for a warm December, an average January and a somewhat colder than average February. Let's see if we will make it 3 for 3 this month.
In the wake of that front, we expect temperatures to barely move today with variable clouds. It should be brighter later in the day as compared to now.
But we will be on the warm side. So temperatures will rebound nicely Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs can be near 50 or so south of the warm front.
A severe weather outbreak is likely across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
It's possible that we hear thunder in eastern OH and western PA early Wednesday morning but we are not expecting severe weather.
Temperatures will fall during the daylight hours Wednesday and this mild pattern will come to an end.
No significant weather is expected through Super Bowl Sunday.
Will it last?? I does not look likely right now. That cold shot should push out after a few days. Winter has a hard time "locking in" in strong El Ninos and this year is no exception.Remember last February?
This February will be NOTHING like that.
The cold front associated with this system will pivot across the Valley this evening. This can bring a more substantial band of snow. While we are not looking for a big accumulation, the impacts could be notable since it is coming toward the tail end of rush hour.15 hour futurecast (notice the green....there might actually be some rain at the start of this):
Snow showers will linger into the night with some lake-enhancement as well. Snow amounts will be very modest...a coating to at most an inch in most of the area. Perhaps 2 inches in areas likely to get a little lake-enhancement.Models (for SE Trumbull i.e. the airport):
NWS snow forecast:
Pretty similar to our snow map issued last night:
A major snow storm will impact the middle of the country. This will be more of a spring-style storm with heavy snow on the cold side and severe weather in the warm sector.Snow:
Severe weather possible Tuesday into Tuesday night as far north as the Ohio River:
There might be thunder here Tuesday night and early Wednesday as the strong cold front approaches.
The highest chance for getting an inch or more of snow will be in the northern half of our viewing area. NWS snow forecast:
Balmy weather is likely through midweek.
Meanwhile, a doozy of a winter storm will make its way through the Plains states and blizzard conditions will be possible early next week in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. Nice dumping of snow:
This system will drag a lot of moisture northward and will likely cause some springlike severe weather in parts of the Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. The moisture content of the atmosphere (or "precipitable water") will be quite high for early February.
It's VERY mild this morning! But colder air is not too far to the west and temperatures will fall this afternoon.
Any more rain today? Not much....maybe a sprinkle. There might be a late-day flurry. 15 hour futurecast:
The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 outlook shoes this trend nicely as well.
There will be a major winter storm in the middle of the country early next week. This will draw the mild air north as it moves across the country but eventually we will get back to more typical early February weather.
Today will be a pretty nice January day! With a mix of sun and clouds temperatures will get up to about 40 this afternoon. Not a bad day to wash the car.
A cold front is on the way, however. Temperatures will bottom out early tonight and then rise overnight as the front approaches. Rain showers will dampen some places late tonight and early tomorrow.
Temperatures will fall during the midday and afternoon tomorrow and there might be a sprinkle or flurry in the afternoon.
Thursday looks benign and then the next disturbance could bring a few snowflakes on Friday.
The start of February is likely to be mild in much of the country. Does it stay that way all month? The climate models say yes but I'm not ready to buy that idea just yet. Stay tuned for our February forecast late this week.