WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 22
https://youtu.be/R9OC_0eSuv4
MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MONDAY MORNING!
After a veryyyyy nice weekend, we have more seasonable weather on the way for the start of the work week. Today and tomorrow will be benign with some sun. Highs today not far from 40. Tomorrow will be a little warmer. Not the 60s like we had Saturday but not bad for February!
MIDWEEK STORM
Over the weekend, the details on the midweek storm came into focus. Instead of a storm track through western and central PA like last week, this storm will take a much more westerly course. This will result in mild air coming north into the Valley late Tuesday night and Wednesday. We will just see periods of rain and a gusty wind on Wednesday.
By Thursday morning the storm will be heading east of our region and the counterclockwise flow around low pressure will drag colder air down from the north. This will change rain over to snow showers.This will not be a snow "storm"; the snow showers will be scattered in nature Thursday into Thursday night. Still, some of them can be of decent intensity and result in accumulations.
I suspect that parts of the viewing area will pick up something like 1-3" worth of snow by Friday morning. We'll hone in on the numbers as we get closer. Current models:
Flurries will linger into Friday and it will be a blustery and cold day.
LONG RANGE:
As I have been mentioning for a while, February will end and March will start on a colder-than-average note. Averages are rising fairly quickly at this time of the year, so 10 degrees below average at the start of March means highs near freezing....not exactly brutal arctic air.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will focus on the details of the midweek system and we'll look at the latest modeling. Also a deeper dive into the long range...what's beyond that chilly period to start March? Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
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QUICK UPDATE ON MIDWEEK STORM
GOOD SUNDAY MORNING
Just a short update on the midweek storm. The track has come into focus over the last 24 hours or so and it is one that will bring a variety of precipitation types and quite a bit of wind.
WEDNESDAY
With the low moving north through the lower Ohio Valley, our region will be on the mild side of the storm, so look for a rainy day with a gusty wind.
THURSDAY
The low tracks east of us and the counterclockwise flow around it will drag the colder air in. While we might have rain showers around at the start of the day, I expect a quick transition to snow showers for the rest of the day and into Thursday night.
The wind will be strong this day and temperatures should fall. The snow showers may be numerous enough that we get some accumulation. Perhaps even a few inches by Friday morning. I suspect the best chance for a decent accumulation will be north of I-80.
Thanks for reading and have a great rest of the weekend.Eric
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 19
https://youtu.be/iUUjKo6peIw
BLOG: UPDATE ON NEXT STORM
TGIF!
This post will focus on the midweek storm but first a few words about the short term:
- Windy and warmer today. Gusts to 35-40 mp this afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s this afternoon. Current temperatures:
- AWESOME tomorrow. Middle and even upper 50s with midday and afternoon sunshine. Enjoy!
- Small chance for midday, afternoon rain Sunday, mainly south of Rt. 224.
MIDWEEK STORM
Here's what we know: There will be a storm in the eastern US in the middle of the work week and it will impact a large number of people.That's about it.This is not unusual. This degree of uncertainty is common in situations where we are 4-6 days out from an event, especially when the disturbance that eventually becomes the storm is still wayyyy out over the Pacific.
The models, as is typical, are shuffling back and forth with the track of the system. Last night's modeling featured a westward shift. An eastward shift would not surprise me today/tomorrow.The European model has 2 distinct area of low pressure Wednesday morning. The western low is so far west that mild air would get drawn into Ohio and western PA. Taken literally, it would suggest a period of RAIN or a mix Wednesday followed by some wet snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
THE GFS sort of has a similar idea.
Here's my latest map showing where I think snow is possible and likely with this storm. While I have our region in the "likely" zone, that does not mean it will be a BIG snow event here. I just suspect it snows at least SOME.
Overall confidence in ALL aspects of this system is LOW. We'll see if the weekend brings an increase in confidence.
Thanks for reading,Eric
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 18
https://youtu.be/cpigCL6etmM
THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING! HAPPY FRIDAY EVE
A frigid night as expected last night; my low was -1 in Boardman. Sunglasses are a must today with high pressure providing lots of sunshine to reflect off our fresh snow pack.
Cold though with temperatures almost 10 degrees blow average this afternoon.
FRIDAY: WINDY AND MUCH WARMER
A strong pressure gradient will set up on Friday with high pressure near the Eastern Seaboard and a strong low pressure area in the Upper Midwest. That will result in some strong winds across the region, especially to our west.
A "low level jet" will get going, a very fast-moving river of air only 5,000 feet above our heads. Winds will be screaming at 70-95 mph in that jet.
Thankfully, a fairly strong inversion will prevent a lot of that wind energy from getting pulled down to the ground. But it will be windy anyway thanks to the pressure gradient. Some gusts can reach 40 mph or so in the afternoon. 50 mph+ gusts are likely in western Ohio.Temperatures will soar and a LOT of melting will occur Friday and Friday night.
THE WEEKEND
What a great day Saturday will be. We'll have a good deal of sun with highs in the middle 50s. Not record territory but still way above average. Car washes will be hopping.Sunday is a tougher forecast as a weak area of low pressure will scoot across the Ohio Valley. Will the rain with this system come this far north? Probably but it is not a certainty. It will still be mild.
ANOTHER MAJOR STORM....FOR SOMEONE
The models continue to produce a strong signal for a major storm system SOMEWHERE in the East during the middle of next week. We are too far out to hone in on details, but we can talk about trends.It seems likely that a low pressure area will track into the Lower Ohio Valley or the Appalachians and then may or may not transfer energy to or evolve into more of a coastal low. This is in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.
Notice the European model ensemble suite does not have a tight clustering of low pressure placements but you can see the general idea it is going for.I think odds are favoring *SOME* impacts for us in eastern Ohio/western PA. Big impacts? Nuisance impacts? Don't know that yet.Weather weenies and snow lovers no doubt are drooling over the operation run of the European model this morning. It has a comparable storm to this week's. The ensemble mean snowfall is quite a bit less though. Bottom line: All things are on the table. No impacts, some impacts, big impacts. I lean toward "some" at the moment. Stay tuned.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
A nice run going. Hoping to make this a BIG run of checks.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video is of course going to take a good look at next week but will be loaded with short-term details as well. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 17
https://youtu.be/UIzmW-K7Qzc
GRADING THE WINTER STORM FORECAST
If you have watched me on TV or followed me on social media/this blog for a while, you know that I don't hide from busted forecasts. I admit when I am wrong. I also do proudly proclaim that our forecasts are the most accurate you can find from any source for our area and I have the statistics to back that up. Accuracy is very important to us. I track it obsessively, recording our (and 4 other sources) forecasts each day and having a complicated spreadsheet tabulate the errors for each time period.So in that spirit, how do I think we did with this storm?Pretty well, but with plenty of room for improvement.
1) INITIAL COMMUNICATION OF THREAT: A
We started taking about the possibility of a storm during the middle of last week. By Thursday and especially Friday, we started talking about the potential for an "impactful" storm, enough to shovel, plow and cause travel disruptions. It was too early to give specifics on timing and snow accumulations but I think we did well in giving the audience a heads up that something significant was coming.I posted this on Friday:
2) THREAT COMMUNICATION OVER WEEKEND: A
By the weekend, our confidence in some things increased. We were pretty sure of the timing. We were somewhat confident that the area would experience snow and a mix of snow, ice and rain. But the snow forecast remained very tricky and we told you that. We told you to check the forecast often!
3) IMPACTS: A
I think we shined here. On Monday we highlighted the threat for severe impacts on travel. We talked about the threat for power outages due to the heavy, wet nature of the snow. I did not see many other sources talking about this. There were thousands without power in Columbiana County earlier today. We advertised that a large amount of school adjustments would happen, impacting thousands of families.
My only knock on this is that the ice threat was overplayed to a degree. There was some freezing rain southeast of Youngstown but not enough to have big impacts.
4) SNOW AMOUNTS: B-/C+
This was always going to be a very difficult forecast. Would mixed precipitation play a big factor? Would the deepest moisture reside over the Valley? These are questions that were nearly impossible to answer with a decent degree of confidence until the day of the storm.That said, there were signs that this would be very BIG. The European model, generally considered to be superior to it's US counterpart (the GFS) locked onto the right idea over the weekend. Other models were all over the place (Quick aside: The European is an already excellent model and is being upgraded in March, which should make it THAT much better than the GFS). I regret not respecting the Euro enough to take it's high snow totals more seriously.Our initial map, issued Sunday afternoon: 
A decent first effort but obviously underdone for 75% of the area.The next major update to the map came at midday Monday. 
Good step, just not far enough. Played down the mixed precip, introduced an 8-12" area and moved the 4-8" area farther east a little.By mid-afternoon Monday, the storm was really "showing its hand" and the hi-resolution, short-range modeling was locking on to the fact that the mild air was not going to much of a factor and the Valley would reside in the "bullseye" of highest moisture content.The final map, issued a couple of hours before the snow started: 
This was pretty good. The 8-12" area could have come a little farther south and east but not by much.
OVERALL GRADE: A-/B+
I preached that people should focus on the IMPACTS rather than if their yard would get 7", 9", 12" or whatever. The impacts were high and we communicated that risk well ahead of time. The snow forecast ended up being very good at the end but I regret not pulling the trigger on that final map 12 hours earlier. Some of the data showed it but not enough of it did. But, when the European is "locked in:" and not waffling back and forth, it needs to be a big red flag...even if the other data contradicts it. That's the main lesson here from a purely forecasting standpoint.Thanks for reading!Eric
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 16
https://youtu.be/fjC6SFONXnk
TUESDAY AM VIDEO BLOG: STORM WINDING DOWN
https://youtu.be/VBdZmPlQNyk
BLOG: MONDAY MORNING STORM UPDATE
GOOD MORNING!
First off all, we have some patchy freezing drizzle out there this morning. Be cautious as untreated surfaces can be slick.
THE STORM
Not a lot has changed since my 2 blog updates yesterday. Have a look.A lot....A LOT of people are "anxious", "excited", "confused" about the Weather Channel forecast of 8-12" they are seeing on TV/their crummy app this morning. You follow me and read this blog for MY opinion on the weather. I devote all my energy to getting MY forecast right and can't spend a lot of time thinking about/defending other's forecasts.This remains a VERY tricky situation because our cold, arctic air will be "routed" today, replaced by a milder air mass. This, along with the storm track, presents precipitation type challenges tonight. Some will get sleet, some freezing rain, many a heavy, wet goopy snow. And many will go back and forth between all of those things.
HIGH CONFIDENCE
- It will precipitate. :)
- Timing. Precipitation will arrive this evening between 8pm-11pm. The storm will exit by midday tomorrow with precipitation tapering off and ending between 9am-2pm from west to east.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
- Overall storm track. Low pressure will track across West Virginia and western PA tonight into tomorrow.
LOW CONFIDENCE
- Precipitation type in your back yard. The temperature profile of the atmosphere will support a variety of precipitation types from roughly Youngstown south and east. It may vary throughout the night...sleet....freezing rain....wet snow. Here's a general idea:
- Snow amounts. The high possibility of mixed precipitation will cut down on snow totals for many...but where it stays all snow this will be a pretty good storm. Our snow map is the same as it was yesterday but we will likely make some tweaks as the midday models roll in.
IMPACTS
This will be a high impact storm. Some will get a heavy, wet, hard to shovel snow. Even with air temperatures at 32-34 degrees, rain could freeze on cold surfaces as we just had the coldest air of the season here over the weekend. There will likely be school adjustments.
More updates throughout the day.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WINTER STORM UPDATE
Good Afternoon!
The full suite of midday Sunday operational models are in and now we have to take a stab at predicting what will happen Monday night into Tuesday. Overall forecast confidence is NOT as high as we would like it to be. It's important to check the forecast often over the next 24 hours as we fine tune things.
FIRST: MINOR SNOW EVENT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
A warm front will track our way tonight and will spread some light snow into the region. This is not the "storm" so let's not be fooled into thinking this showed up 24 hours early.The snow is off to our west this afternoon:
Hi-res radar through 3am Monday: 
This light snow can add up to a fluffy 1" or so (locally 2") through tomorrow afternoon.
THE MAIN "STORM"
Monday evening, a storm will be taking shape across the Lower Mississippi Valley, tracking northeast. The track of the low pressure area is key to our forecast. The arctic air that is in place over the region now will get dislodged tomorrow so the system will not be heading into a super cold air mass. Therefore it will be easy for rain to occur near and to the east of the center of the system.The low seems to be headed near or just east of Pittsburgh by Tuesday morning.
That is going to drag the mild air awfully close to the viewing area. I think surface temperatures will be near 32 most of Monday night and Tuesday morning. The question will be: what's the temperature like a few hundred and thousand feet above our heads?If it gets to 32 and above in a deep enough layer, sleet, freezing rain and perhaps plain rain could get involved for a time. I think this is most likely SE of Youngstown.So, there are challenges.
TIMING
One thing we are pretty confident about is timing. After our light snow earlier in the day, snow should pick up again between 8pm-1am Monday night/Tuesday morning.Precipitation should taper off by midday Tuesday.That means the steadiest, heaviest precipitation is likely between 3am-9am.
IMPACTS
This storm will certainly impact the morning commute on Tuesday. Many roads, especially major roads, may be primarily wet, depending on the intensity of the snow and whether a mix with rain or even a changeover to rain occurred. Again, best chance of that is southeast of Youngstown.This will be a WET snow, great for making snowballs but not so easy to shovel. It could be made worse if liquid precipitation or sleet falls on top of it. Be careful when shoveling.The heavy nature of the snow and the possibility of some freezing rain means I can't rule out isolated power outages. Tree branches and power lines might be weighed down. Don't want to emphasize this too much but it's worth a mention.
SNOW ACCUMULATION
This is a tricky one. Again, check forecast often. Think the highest totals are likely from Youngstown north and west but this is greatly dependent on exact track of system and whether mixed precipitation occurs. Some places in the 2-4" zone may get more than 4" if no mixing happens.Our confidence in the specifics will increase as we get closer.Thanks for reading.Eric
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY STORM UPDATE
Good morning everyone....just a quick blog about the winter storm threat for Monday night into Tuesday morning.
APPETIZER
There will be some light snow tonight into Monday but this is of little concern, probably a fresh coating to an inch for much of the area. Watch for slick spots in the morning. Many have the day off (Presidents Day). Temperatures will warm to about freezing Monday afternoon so it will feel tropical.
MAIN COURSE
Low pressure will track from the Deep South into the central Appalachians late Monday. The exact track of the low is very important to our forecast. Far enough west and enough mild air will get dragged into the Valley that we will see a mix and perhaps even rain for a time Monday night. Far enough east and the air will remain cold enough for all snow and there could be a decent dumping of heavy, wet snow.The models, as of 9am, are not in great agreement on the track. This is giving us headaches.I put out this graphic yesterday and still think it is reasonable for most of our area.
I DO think that the odds of 4"+ are highest in the western half of our viewing area...farther from the possible mild air intrusion.Current model snowfall for Vienna area (airport):Here's a preliminary breakdown of the possible timing of precipitation types.
Am going to wait for the full run of morning models and then have a bigger update, including a snow map, this afternoon.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 12
https://youtu.be/du85rnnYx1k
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 11
https://youtu.be/1PzbKHJMsEc
THURSDAY BLOG: MORE SNOW AND COLD COMING
GOOD THURSDAY MORNING
Yesterday went pretty much according to plan although a nearly stationary snow squall lead to some "bonus" accumulations overnight around and just south of I-80. Snow totals vary quite a bit, depending on if you got a prolonged squall or not.On to today! It will be a cold but fairly uneventful day. Some flurries can visit at times. Not much on the 15 hour simulated radar:
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT: MORE SNOW
The mother lode of arctic air will head our way tomorrow and the front will be accompanied by another round of snow showers tomorrow afternoon through Saturday.
Snow totals may be similar to what we just got yesterday and last night. Will put out an official forecast map this afternoon but it looks like something like 2-4" in many places with perhaps 4-6" in our northern viewing area.This is easily the coldest air mass of the winter. Check out the wind chills in SE Canada around Toronto Saturday morning. Dangerous stuff.
Around here it won'[t be that bad but still wind chills can be -10 to -15 early Saturday.
Actual temperatures: no higher than 10 Saturday.
MORE SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK?
It's looking more and more likely that a light snowfall will occur Sunday night into Monday as a warm front tracks across the region. Probably something like 1-3".
Then, an area of low pressure should form somewhere across the southeast and track northeast. The question is...what's the track? Far enough west and we could get in on accumulating snow on Tuesday. Too fast east and it is a miss for us. This is a low confidence forecast this point......although I am currently leaning toward either 1) a miss or 2) a glancing blow with minor accumulations.GFS model depiction of Tuesday:
That suggests a "miss". But experienced forecasters know that in these types of situations several days out, we must look at all the information available including the "ensembles". These are different simulations of the same model, each with slightly different information "baked in". Most of the GFS ensemble members have a miss for us:
That said, other modeling including the European ensemble say.....be careful. A farther west track is on the table. So...bottom line....there's a chance for snow but confidence is low.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video is of course going to take a thorough look at tomorrow/Saturday's snow and cold as well as the latest on next week's threat. It'll be another packed video! Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 10
https://youtu.be/0Dlbo8lAH3Y
WEDNESDAY AM BLOG: ALL ABOUT THE SNOW, COLD
GOOD MORNING!
Lots to talk about today so let's get right to it. Arctic air is dropping into the region this morning and while it is cold here, it's worse to our west:
As the arctic front cruises east today, snow showers and squalls will get going. The most frequent activity looks to be this afternoon and evening. Here's a 24-hour future radar taking us through early tomorrow morning:
IMPACTS
This will be one of those situations where white outs will be possible and conditions can change rapidly. If you are going to be out and about this afternoon, be weather aware. The visibility could lower quickly and the road could go from fine to not so good in short order. Thankfully, any intense snow will not last all that long in any one spot.
TIMING
The snow squall parameter is pretty impressive this afternoon into early this evening, showing squalls moving from NW to SE across the Valley (purple colors). The window for the most frequent snow showers and squalls will be about 2pm-5pm.
There is a small chance for thunder and lightning too.
AMOUNTS
There will be additional scattered snow showers through tonight and early tomorrow but intense squalls are much less likely. This map covers the next 24 hours:
Note: With snow squalls there can be "surprises" in some spots in the 1-3" zone. Can some place get 4" or so if the most intense squall moves overhead? Sure. But 1-3" will be a good "general rule".
WIND CHILLS
Wind chills will probably drop into the zero to 5 below range later tonight and early tomorrow.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will have a thorough update on the coldest weather of the season (the weekend) along with a couple of additional chances for snow before a thaw arrives next week. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley's most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 9
https://youtu.be/Yiptlw0pJno