TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
We had some nice, house-shaking boomers last evening and they were accompanied by some heavy rain. A sampling of rain totals:
Pretty close to halfway through the month. Just about the ENTIRE nation has been warm.
Amazing.On to today. Tough forecast today as our temperatures will depend greatly on whether or not the clouds thin this afternoon. Currently we have a deck of low stratus clouds around with spotty drizzle.
Short range hi-res models are NOT optimistic that these clouds break today.
Therefore, the model keeps temperatures in the lower 50s all day.
Hmmmmm. We will almost surely have to adjust our official high of 62 down into the 50s.Severe weather will become a concern late today and tonight for areas to our west. A "slight" risk has been issued from northwest Ohio to eastern Iowa:
Not concerned about severe weather around here. A couple of showers can roll through late tonight and tomorrow morning along a weak frontal boundary.
With some afternoon clearing and a gusty wind, temperatures should return to the 60s tomorrow.
LATE-WEEK CHANGES
The warm pattern will finally come to an end, at least for a while. An approaching front can bring a couple of showers Thursday into Friday and cooler, more seasonable air will follow.
The GFS model shows some snowflakes Friday, not buying that...but it will certainly be cooler with temperatures in the 40s.
THE WEEKEND
Saturday looks tranquil and cool.
I suspect Sunday is cloudier and there might even be a wet snow shower around. Not confident about that at this point.
LONG RANGE
Milder air will get back into the pattern later next week and the month should end with more mild weather.
2 DEGREE GUARENTEE
Nice little run going....holding around 66% accuracy for the year so far. We can do better.
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2012 and 2010 ended up warmer than this month (so far).2000 was also balmy.Rain has been pestering us since yesterday morning. Here is a sampling of totals:
What about today? Well I do not think it will do much during the daylight hours as we will be in between systems most of the day. The blob of showers to our southwest is what is likely to track our way this evening.
That is associated with a lobe of "vorticity" or spin in the atmosphere at around 18,000 feet. Spin at that level promotes rising air, clouds and precipitation.
Here's the simulated radar off the HRRR model, showing showers returning this evening:
While we can't rule out some evening thunder here, it's a low chance. Higher risk of thunder and lightning in southeast Ohio...where there also exists a small chance for severe weather:
Mild again today with highs in the lower and middle 60s.
Tomorrow night may be quite active out toward Chicago/Indianapolis with a chance for severe weather. Those storms are likely to weaken considerably coming east and I am not concerned about severe weather here. Maybe a rumble of thunder tomorrow night.
Wednesday will feature a weak frontal passage; might be a shower or two in the morning with that. Another nice, mild day with highs in the 60s.
The cold front that will put an end to the unusual warmth will approach Thursday and showers may break out before the day is through. It will be the last warm day for a while.
We MIGHT see a few snowflakes by the end of the weekend. Stay tuned on that.The 5-10 period is likely to be near or somewhat below average. A warm up should follow this stretch.
The day started out fairly cloudy but there should be some clearing...leading to a jump in temperatures. The HRRR (as usual) is pretty aggressive with temperatures today but it is likely not far off. Shave a couple of degrees off these readings and you probably have today's highs.
The record high of 77 is out of reach today. But WOW what a day.Quite the remarkable pattern across the continent today. An unusual upper-level low is heading across northern Mexico...upper lows usually do not travel this far south. This is pumping up the ridge downstream, leading to the May Preview in so many places.
Although Friday will be cooler, it will STILL be at least 10 degrees above average. Not bad!
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:
Tomorrow:
Wednesday:
Notice some themes here? The area will be south and east of all the stormy weather and we will remain firmly in the warm sector. 70-73 degrees Wednesday? I think it's possible.
The forecast challenge for Friday and the weekend is: Does the active weather near the front sag south, giving us a nice Friday/Saturday or does it stall overhead, leading to more raindrops? I lean toward the drier idea now but stay tuned.
Precipitation should be pretty close to average for the rest of the month.
Flurries will be found here and there this morning. Highs today in the upper 20s.
How much snow? I think 1-3" is a good range for the viewing area and I suspect more places will be closer to 3" than 1" south of I-80.NWS snow forecast. We will put out a map this afternoon.
On Saturday, a weak area of low pressure will scoot across the region and there will probably be some light snow (maybe mixed with rain). Snow should be no big deal.
Sunday looks like the better half of the weekend with sunshine and more seasonable temperatures.
NEXT WEEK: WOO HOO!
And we not alone. Much of the country had a warmer-than-average winter. Really the ONLY "cold" spot was in parts of the Southwest. Departures from average:
This was the 7th warmest winter on record in Youngstown. 2011-2012 was actually slightly warmer.
We are not done with accumulating snow yet but here is where we stand on the list of least snowy seasons:
We might drop a few slots on this list with a few inches of snow still possible over the coming days.
On December 1, we did update this to make the forecast warmer, bit obviously did not go far enough.Actual departures from average:
We had the warmth (and cold) in the right places but just were not warm enough. Overall a good forecast though.
Overall we expected a month much closer to average locally.Actual temperatures:
Pretty good! January ended up being 0.4 degrees above average in Youngstown.
Expected February to be the coldest month (compared to average) of the winter. Also talked about it being the snowiest (which it was).I would have given this a lower grade but we DID update the forecast late in January and did take it in the right direction (just not far enough)
February ended up 3.3 degrees above average locally.
These numbers are all below average. And this forecast was pretty much on the money (slightly too high). As of Tuesday morning the total at the airport is 31.2".
Rain totals will average 0.25"-0.50".
As colder air wraps in behind the area of low pressure, rain will change to snow showers around or after midnight tonight.
Snow accumulations will be very minor....a coating to maybe an inch. We can't rule out 2 inches in some areas north of I-80.
BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW: THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE CHANCE FOR SNOWFLAKES SATURDAY
Highs are likely to top 70 degrees for AT LEAST a couple of days late in the week.
The rest of the day will feature a gusty wind and some clearing. Hi-res models show the Sun returning this afternoon:
Temperatures will remain well above average with some places touching 50 this afternoon.
We are not expecting the snow to be a "big deal" but, especially on non-paved surfaces there might be a slushy inch (maybe 2" north of I-80) by daybreak Wednesday.
Accumulating snow is most likely south of I-70 with this feature.
But still, there is at least a chance that the Valley gets a small accumulation of snow late Thursday night and early Friday. More on that as we get closer.
It may not be a redo of the ridiculously warm start to Spring in March 2012 but it should be impressive nonetheless!
As we have been talking about, snow will have a hard time sticking, especially on paved surfaces, until late this afternoon and early this evening. The ground is warm and temperatures will be near or even a little above freezing until that point.Still there can be a burst of steadier, heavier snow at the start of rush hour that can cause some issues.
The next cold front is on the way late Sunday night and early Monday with a chance for rain and snow showers. Does not look like a big deal.
Rain totals are exceeding 3/4" of an inch already in much of the region.
We can expect a storm total rainfall of 1-1.5" by tonight.Simulated radars for the mid-Atlantic region and our local area:
We can see breaks in the rain this afternoon and evening but there will be spotty showers around. There is a small chance for a rumble of thunder. The chance for thunderstorms is higher to our south:
The Gulf Coast got rocked by severe weather yesterday and last night and today the mid-Atlantic region down to the Carolinas is under the gun.With the dry slot moving overhead this afternoon, temperatures can shoot up into the 50s once again.
Snow amounts will not be all that impressive. Here's the map I issued last evening and it looks generally fine this morning:
Current modeling:
In general, an inch or two inches of wet snow will about do it. 3-4" may be generous in the northern part of the viewing area but I can't rule it out either. As far as impacts....with temperatures above freezing for most of the daylight hours Thursday I would expect most roads to just be wet. Surfaces are warm after this mild spell and it's hard to get snow to stick on pavement in late February during the day unless it is really coming down hard (thanks to increasing sun strength). Roads can turn slick after sunset Thursday but I am not expecting problems for Friday morning.
Rain will be steadiest in the morning hours Wednesday and then a little more "hit or miss" in the afternoon. Then steadier rain will return Wednesday night.This system will produce a major severe weather outbreak in the Deep South today ionto tonight.
We are not expecting severe weather here but there might be a rumble of thunder late Wednesday.
Rainfall totals from Wednesday to Wednesday night will likely average an inch or so.
Snow showers will linger into Thursday night. Current thinking for snow accumulations is 1-3" although some local amounts to 4" may be possible north of I-80.
