THURSDAY MORNING VIDEO BLOG
https://youtu.be/WgbyIGMhpQk
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 30
https://youtu.be/M_L1iC2ECAQ
WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
We had a nice, sunny day Tuesday although it was on the cool side. After a frosty start this morning, temperatures will blast off today with the aid of a south wind on the back side of high pressure. Highs in the upper 60s.
It's appropriate that March will end on a warm note as it certainly has been a warm month not only locally but across much of the Lower 48:
UNSETTLED, WINDY THURSDAY
The final day of the month will feature temperatures in the 60s again but as a cold front approaches the risk of showers will be there. The rain will probably come in 2 sections. One around midday/early afternoon and another toward evening.
The highest risk for thunder will be in the early evening. Not much concern for severe weather here. The risk is much higher to the west and south.
Rain totals through Thursday night will average 0.50"-1.00".
APRIL STARTS COOLER
Friday will not be as warm as today and Thursday but it won't be all the chilly just yet. Most of the day will be uneventful but there might be a late-day shower as a weak disturbance pushes in from the west.
A STRONGER front will arrive late Saturday and this will lead to snow showers late Saturday and Saturday night. Could there be a coating in spots? Yeah maybe.
Sunday will be partly sunny and cold with temperatures mostly in the 30s. Chance for a flurry.
On Monday, models are showing another relatively weak system cruising through. High confidence that it will be chilly once again but low confidence in the precipitation details. Will be a RAW home opener for the Indians.
LONG RANGE
Temperatures will turn around during the second half of next week and the long range is looking mild. April is likely to be closer to average than February and March but still should end up on the warmer side of average by some amount.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:
A good forecast yesterday. I smell another check mark coming today.
SKYWARN TRAINING
The final 2 SKYWARN classes of the season in our area are tonight. These are FREE and no pre-registration is required. Learn more about types of severe weather and help out NWS and TV meteorologists!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will hone in on Thursday's unsettled weather and have an update on the weekend snow chances. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley's most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 29
https://youtu.be/sHayeFcZecc
TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING TO YA,
After a rather crummy Monday with clouds, gusty winds and wind chills in the 30s, today will be MUCH improved as high pressure builds overhead. That high dominates the morning weather map:
Plenty of sunshine today. Although temperatures will be a few degrees below average, the strong March Sun will make it feel warmer.
WEDNESDAY: BACK TO EARLY MAY
That high will shift to our east. Since the flow around high pressure is clockwise, our wind will come out of the south-southwest on Wednesday.....resulting in a much warmer afternoon. With a good deal of sun, we are heading for the mid 60s.
SOGGY THURSDAY
A cold front will approach Thursday and showers will be around from about midday onward. There might be a spotty afternoon thunderstorm too. By the time the rain leaves Thursday night, rain totals can reach an inch or so in many spots.
At least Thursday will be warm with highs in the 60s once again.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
In the wake of the front, Friday will not be as warm (but not all that chilly either). There might be an afternoon shower with a weak disturbance coming in from the west.
The first weekend of April will be more like early March, especially Sunday. Another cold front may bring a shower Saturday, with flurries likely to be seen in some spots Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures seem likely to stay in the 30s Sunday.
The cold will last a few days but it looks like a mild pattern will return by the middle of next week.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will examine the chances for thunder Thursday, have an update on the weekend cold snap and we'll also have an update on the April forecast. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley's most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 28
https://youtu.be/hSTU3HpcZfo
MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
Good morning!
Hope it was a good Easter for you and your family. What a day it was! 76 was the high Sunday, our warmest day since September 25, 2015.Today will, uh, not be that nice. The cold front that arrived in the middle of the night dropped a decent amount of rain:
And some vivid lightning. This shot, by Leanne in Girard, was taken around 2:45am:
Last night's rain is gone but we will still need the wet weather gear at times during the midday and afternoon as this area of moisture pivots southeast. Highest chance for steady rain will be north of I-80.
Simulated radar:
Temperatures are going nowhere today...holding in the 40s for the rest of the day. I miss yesterday.
MIDWEEK TURNAROUND
Tomorrow will still be cooler with clouds parting for sunshine by midday. Temperatures will end up in the mid 40s but the afternoon will feel warmer with the strong late March sun beating down.
Wednesday will be a winner with warmer temperatures, some sun and a gusty afternoon breeze. Lower 60s are on the menu.
NEXT FRONT: THURSDAY
Rain is likely on Thursday as a cold front arrives. There is a chance for thunder. This front will kick start a pattern change that will send up back in time to February as April opens!
APRIL????
It's no April Fool.....it will be cold this weekend and early next week. A reinforcing cold front is likely to arrive late Saturday or Saturday night and there can be snowflakes with that.
While temperatures will likely get into the 40s Saturday, Sunday and Monday (Opening Day!) may feature afternoon readings no higher than the 30s.
Remember, measurable snow in April is NOT unusual in these parts. Roughly 4% of our annual snow falls during the month of April.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will have a full update on the crazy ups and downs that we are likely to experience over the next couple of weeks as Winter and Spring do battle. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley's most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
After a high of 64 on Wednesday, today will be even warmer. We've made our forecast high 70 and honestly, I could see it getting to 71 or 72. We are firmly in the warm sector ahead of a strong storm system that is moving through the middle of the country.
Temperatures will soar in our region today with mid 70s common from Pittsburgh to Zanesville.
But that system is heading our way and it will drag a cold front toward the Valley this evening. Showers will become increasingly likely around dinner time and we expect an unsettled evening with showers and even thunderstorms.15 hour simulated radar (HRRR model):
What about severe weather? Could these storms turn strong? It's a marginal situation. On one hand, the front is coming through at an unfavorable time of day for severe weather. The atmosphere will not be all that unstable. On the other hand, a "low level jet", a pocket of strong winds at around 5,000 feet, will be pushing overhead. This can aid in storm development and increase the chance that some of those strong winds get pulled down in heavier cells.Animation showing the arrival of that jet this evening:
The Storm Prediction Center has the area in the "marginal" risk for severe weather.
So, something to watch for sure, although again the overall risk of damaging winds is not all that high.
MUCH COOLER FRIDAY
At daybreak on Friday, temperatures will be between 39-43 degrees and that's about as warm as it will be all day. Temperatures will hold steady or gently fall with a thick blanket of clouds most of the day. It will feel a whole lot different! There can be a rain and wet snow shower in spots through midday.
THE WEEKEND
Easter weekend is still looking excellent. High pressure will slide east Saturday and a southwest wind will warm us up into the 50s. Lots of sunshine.
Easter Sunday looks warm and dry (through the daylight hours) with increasing afternoon clouds. Might be 70 or so! Enjoy. Rain arrives Sunday night.
We look for a soggy period Sunday night into at least Monday morning.
LONG RANGE:
A cool down early next week will be followed by a midweek warm surge (70 again?). Then cooler weather for the start of April. The numbers shown here may be too high in early April.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:
Made the right adjustment yesterday as it became apparent that temperatures will blast off despite the clouds.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will probably mostly focus on the incoming showers and storms. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley's most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 23
https://youtu.be/M9M51IWGtwg
WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
Yesterday was pretty nice...today even better. Tricky forecasting today as temperatures will be highly dependent on the amount of sunshine we get. Not much sun and we will be near 60 (still mild!). More sunshine than expected and we could reach the upper 60s. I am starting to lean in the warm direction as there are some holes in the clouds already this morning.
Our hi-res short term model, which can overcook things at times, has us near 70(!) this afternoon. It's probably too high but not by much. Notice the front sagging across Lake Erie and quickly dropping temps along the lake shore this afternoon.
There is only a small chance for a passing shower this afternoon as that front creeps south.
DAMP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
As we've been talking about all week, Thursday will turn wet by midday/early afternoon as a cold front marches into the state. There is a small chance for thunder. Clouds will inhibit instability.
Rain will probably average 0.40-0.60 inches.
Severe weather threat mainly south of the Ohio River.
ONE DAY COOL SHOT
In the wake of the front, Friday afternoon will be some 30 degrees cooler. There might even be some snowflakes around through midday. Brrrrrr!
That high pressure system will build east, leading to a........
NICE EASTER WEEKEND
Saturday looks really pleasant. After a cold start, temperatures will recover to the 50s.
Easter Sunday continues to look better. Highs should be well into the 60s! Any rain with an approaching system will hold off until very late in the day or at night.
LONG RANGE:
Next week is not looking too shabby temperature-wise but confidence is high that the first week to 10 days of April will be pretty chilly.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:
Nailed another one yesterday. Tough forecast today! We'll see how we do.
LIVE FACEBOOK CHAT!
I'll be on the StormTracker 21 Facebook page this evening, answering YOUR questions about severe weather (or weather in general!). Be sure to join us!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will be on later, after the Facebook chat. We'll discuss tomorrow's rain, the weekend outlook and the cool start to April. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 9:00pm.
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley's most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 22
https://youtu.be/v4rY8_vZ4HY
TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
Good Tuesday morning.....
After a 3-day stretch of chilly weather, our midweek turnaround starts today. A warm front is lifting northward this morning. There are some clouds with this feature and the day will average partly sunny.
Temperatures will jump into the mid and upper 50s today, about 7-10 degrees above average.
EVEN WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
We should see temperatures in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday before a cold front arrives. Wednesday is looking largely dry with only a small chance of a late-day shower as the front to our north wobbles around.
On Thursday, a cold front will march east into the region. Showers are most likely from midday on; there is a chance for thunderstorms as well.
FRIDAY COLD SHOT
Temperatures will be about 25 degrees colder Friday; we may stay in the 30s or lower 40s. Might even see a morning flurry. The afternoon is likely to be fairly sunny as high pressure builds in.
EASTER FORECAST
Temperatures will warm back up over the weekend and Easter should be mild. The good news is that the morning is likely to be dry, so umbrellas should not be needed on the way into services. The highest chance for rain will be late in the day.
LONG RANGE:
An up and down pattern is likely for the rest of the month. There are strong signals for a cooler-than-average pattern as we get beyond April 2-3.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:
A zero error day yesterday!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will have information on the thunderstorm threat Thursday, a deeper dive into the weekend rain threat and an update on the long range trends. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley's most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 21
https://youtu.be/Vp9lISthCwg
MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
Welcome to Spring. It'll feel like the season during midweek....but not today.The weather map across the country is a quiet one this morning.
A chilly air mass will reside over the Valley for one more day today. With a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures will make it to around 40 or so once again.
This morning's low of 25 was cold, but not unusual for this time of the year. It's tempting to think that it will end being the coldest morning until next Autumn but history says that's usually not the case. There have only been 2 years in which it does not hit 25 on or after March 22. 2000 and 2005:
MIDWEEK WARM UP
A warm front will push northward across the region tonight and tomorrow morning and the result will be a breezy and warmer afternoon for our Tuesday. A nice day! Only a small chance for a late-day shower.
Wednesday is likely to be just as warm if not warmer...many places will probably touch 60 degrees. Another breezy day.
Once again, a small chance for an afternoon shower.
STORMY THURSDAY
A pretty strong cold front will roll across Ohio and western PA Thursday, leading to round of showers and probably some thunderstorms. It will be mild once again and even a bit humid.
Severe weather? Not very likely but I can't rule it out at this point.
BRIEF COOL DOWN
Friday will be sharply colder in the wake of that front. Temperatures may not get out of the 30s despite some afternoon sunshine. But the cool shot will only last a day.
The weekend will bring a warm up with temperatures back in the 50s.
APRIL
Computer models have been trending cooler with April and I suspect the month will end up much closer to average than the very warm February-March combo.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will have the usual highly detailed, day-by-day forecast for the next several days and we will also take a closer look at the longer range. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley's most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 18
https://youtu.be/NM-SWIt-NA8
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 17
https://youtu.be/RGZjyLo9OMk
THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
HAPPY ST. PATRICK'S DAY!
Wind gusts peaked at 49 mph at the airport yesterday and we might make a run at that number again later today. Things are calm this morning with sunshine. But the atmosphere will be very "well mixed" again during the midday and afternoon today. Air parcels will be rising and falling all the way up to 10,000-15,000 feet...which does not happen all that often. The wind energy up at that height can get pulled down to the surface by those air parcels so we expect wind gusts to reach 40 mph or so on at least a few occasions later today.
Nice and warm again with highs not far from 60.
A spotty shower can occur toward evening. Although these will be small cells and limited in coverage if they grow high enough they could bring small hail. Something to watch for.
FRIDAY: NOT BAD
Friday will not be as warm but we should still see temperatures reach the mid 40s with some sun. It will not be as windy. A cold front will slide through late in the day. Very little moisture for it to squeeze out but there might be a shower.
THE WEEKEND: SPRING SNOW??
The final day of astronomical winter is Saturday and it will be a chilly but tranquil day with a mix of sun and clouds.
Things get interesting Saturday night and Sunday. An area of low pressure will ride northward and will be close enough to the coast to bring a decent threat of crocus-crushing snow to parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England. Meanwhile, moisture may come far enough west to bring far eastern Ohio and western PA some wet snow starting late Saturday night.
Now I do not believe for a second that this will be a HIGH impact event for us. BUT, could it cause some minor inconveniences early Sunday morning? SURE! It could be slick in spots. During the daylight hours Sunday, any snow that falls will mainly stick to non-paved surfaces.Model snowfall forecasts:
European model, which has been very consistent with this idea for a day or so now, has about 50%-60% odds of 1" or more of snow.
Spring officially arrives just after midnight Sunday morning.
NEXT WEEK: COLD START
A cold start to next week with a gusty wind and some flurries Monday.
A big warm up is coming for midweek though and I think we'll see 60 as early as Wednesday.
2 DEGREE GUARENTEE
Forecast was on the money yesterday.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will of course have a fresh update on the weekend snow potential, plus more medium and long-range prognostications. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley's most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 16
https://youtu.be/8TqiCyy6otA
WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
Good morning!
Well yesterday ended up being cooler than we thought thanks to pesky clouds but today will be quite a bit different. Showers and even some thunderstorms rolled through the northern half of our viewing area in the wee hours of this morning. That was the warm front pushing across. Now we await the arrival of a sorry excuse for a cold front.
That front mighhhht bring another round of showers around lunch time. I suspect the HRRR model is a bit overdone but I can't rule out some midday raindrops.
After that, it will turn mostly sunny, windy and warm. Wind gusts in this afternoon's "well mixed" atmosphere can reach 35 or even 40 mph.
What do I mean by "well mixed"? It means that air will be rising and falling from the surface all the way up to 5,000 or 6,000 feet. The high winds that exist up at that level can get "pulled down" when the atmosphere is well mixed.Highs today will be 20 degrees above average.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: STEPPING BACK
Thursday looks like a pretty decent day with some sunshine and mild temperatures. Just not as warm as today. There could be an afternoon shower here and there. Happy St. Patrick's Day!
Friday will be much more seasonable and even a little chilly. A sprinkle or even a flurry(!) is possible.
THE WEEKEND
A pretty quiet weekend but you will need the jacket. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be below average.
LONG RANGE
We may not be done with measurable snow just yet. The European model suggests that we could see a small amount of snow early next week...probably just flurries. Average date of last measurable snow in Youngstown is April 8.
A warm up seems likely later next week.
2 DEGREE GUARENTEE
The clouds did us in yesterday.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening's video will have more information about the snow chances in the next 5 days or so, along with a peek at APRIL's trends. Plus a lot more geeks stuff. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley's most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 15
https://youtu.be/8MJp5UIp0Ww