WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING!
Our dry stretch continues today...we have not had rain since the 11th of the month. Thankfully the start of April was wet so we are in no danger of things getting TOO dry.
High pressure is off to our east today and this will provide plenty of sunshine and a nice warm up after a chilly start.
FINALLY RAINDROPS
The atmosphere will moisten up on Thursday and while the day is certainly no washout, there will be some showers around at times. The highest risk of wet weather looks to be in the afternoon and evening.
Showers will linger into part of Friday. There may be a drying trend in the afternoon.
We also have an outside chance for thunder Thursday afternoon and again on Friday.Rain totals should shake out to around 1/2 inch.
PLEASANT APRIL WEEKEND
The weekend is looking good! Sunday will be the warmer half of the weekend and both days will feature some sunshine. Not as warm as this past weekend but still quite nice.
EARLY NEXT WEEK
That front that you see on Sunday's map. It will make for forecasting headaches across the region early next week. There will be a HUGE temperature difference across the boundary, perhaps on the order of 35-40 degrees. How far south will the front wobble Monday? I suspect it will not come this far south...but if it manages to, temperatures could be in the 40s instead of the upper 60s!
Either way, some showers are likely Monday and Tuesday.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
Bummer....cool northeast wind kept the temperature from rising as high as we thought Tuesday. 3 degrees off.
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Behind this front, we will have to "settle" for temperatures 8-9 degrees above average today. Boo hoo!
After a chilly night tonight with some back yards seeing temperatures in the upper 30s, tomorrow looks EXCELLENT with afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s.
Models are pointing toward about a half inch of rain.
A shower may try to sneak in by late Sunday but overall the weekend is looking tranquil.
The pattern that was responsible for the amazing late-week/weekend weather is still in place. An "Omega Block" remains stuck over the US, with the "good part" of the block (the ridge) right over us.
The result will be an unsettled day here, although the rain will not fall the entire day. In fact, there may be a decent lull around midday/early afternoon. Steadier rain will be back for late this afternoon and early this evening.15 hour futurecast:
Chilly Tuesday but then back to average and above average Wednesday through the weekend.
San Diego Weather! Hardly a cloud in the sky Wednesday through Sunday. Grab the shades.
Temperatures will get into the 40s Friday afternoon so as the precipitation returns Friday evening, the air temperature should still be in the mid and upper 30s. So the snow will have a hard time sticking at first. There may even be some rain drops initially, mainly south of Rt 30.
The atmosphere will cool overnight and the snow will continue to fall. It will stick to non-paved surfaces first but eventually any untreated surfaces can start to pick up some accumulation.
As the wind turns around to the north Saturday morning, some lake-effect/lake-enhancement will get going, adding to totals...mainly in the snow belt. Snow will taper to flurries in the afternoon. It will look and feel like January.
While this is valid for areas near Vienna, it may be a decent representation of the entire WFMJ viewing area.Odds of our viewing area picking up 1" or more are pretty high. European model has those odds around 70-90%:
The odds of 3" or more are quite a bit lower, which lends credence to the idea that this will be a 1-3" type of event.
Highest risk of 3" or more is probably in the primary snowbelt: Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula counties.This should NOT be one of our biggest April snow events on record. Who remembers 1987?
In the wake of that front, temperatures will blast off during the midday and afternoon. We expect highs in the 60s this afternoon. The other thing we will notice today is the wind, which can gust to 35-40 mpg this afternoon. I don't think we will mind with the warm temperatures.Shower timing has not changed much since yesterday.....we look for rain drops to push in between 7-9pm on average. 15 hour simulated radar:
Showers will stick around into at least part of the day tomorrow. Models are advertising about 1/3"-1/2" of rain in total:
By late Thursday, temperatures will have cooled enough that there may be a few snowflakes across northeast Ohio and western PA:
I think there is a fair chance of a small accumulation of snow...perhaps an inch or so? Well hone in on this over the next 24 hours.
High temperatures Saturday.....more like February.
Sunday will be the nicer half of the weekend. Still quite chilly with highs in the lower 40s. Some sunshine as well.
LONG RANGE
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
Today will be nice and sunny as a dome of high pressure drifts across. Cold though with highs 15-16 degrees below average.
A 1/2 inch of rain can be expected by late Wednesday night/early Thursday.
On Thursday, temperatures will hold steady then fall....and it may be cold enough for...sigh...snowflakes in the afternoon.
Not a very warm pattern beyond that either. Not cold...but not the kind of pattern that will produce 70s and 80s like we get sometimes in April. Day 15-25 outlook:
Strong cold front is pushing across the state this morning.
The rest of today will feature variable clouds. A stray flurry can't be ruled out this afternoon.This is a LEGIT cold air mass that is sweeping in. Lows tonight will slip into the upper teens. The record low is 16 at YNG airport.
That front will sweep eastward Thursday and it could be another day with falling temperatures.
Could there be snowflakes seen before the day is through?? Maybe.Friday will be blustery and cold. Another taste of February or early March. Chance for flurries.
The pattern beyond this does not look "warm" but it does look more "typical" of this time of the year.
But of course March was warm (4th warmest on record) and it put most of us in the mood for true Spring. Well we'll get there but not just yet.A compact "clipper" system will dive into the southern Great Lakes late Saturday:
While this might start as a rain/snow mix or even just rain briefly Saturday evening, a quick changeover to snow will occur. There will be some lake-enhancement as the cold air blows over the open water.The ground is warm, yes, but this is coming at night, giving the snow a better chance to stick. Especially to non-paved surfaces. The snow can come down at a decent clip for a while (especially north of I-80), also helping it to stick to the warm ground.Models showing an inch or so for the I-80 corridor:
I think this is reasonable for areas north of Youngstown. I could even see how someone gets 2 inches in northern Mercer and northeast Trumbull. For areas south of I-80, a coating to 1/2" is certainly possible.This will be long gone by the time most are up and at em' Sunday morning (just leftover flurries) so I am not expecting road issues Sunday morning.