MAY 5TH MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
Wednesday afternoon and evening was a wet one....for some. Rainfall amounts were highly variable...ranging from nothing to 1/2" or more.
More wet weather is around this morning. Our rain will be coming from the EAST today, which happens....but not all that often.
15 hour simulated radar shows more spotty showers this afternoon:
Temperatures will be on the cool side today....reaching to the upper 50s to perhaps 60.
FRIDAY: BETTER
Low pressure will be parked along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday. It will throw some moisture back to the west and I can't totally rule out an afternoon/evening shower around I-79 in western PA. Otherwise, expect intervals of sunshine and clouds with more seasonable temperatures.
WEATHER FOR MOM
Mother's Day weekend still looks good for the most part. Showers and thunderstorms will arrive toward sunset Saturday but before then....a nice day with highs in the lower 70s.
The rain will be long gone by daybreak Sunday. A chilly day with highs in the lower 60s but we expect lots of sunshine.
LONG RANGE
A warm front might bring a shower Monday. A nice warming trend in the wake of that front but it may come with some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.
The rest of May is shown to be near average on the latest runs of the CFS model. Our forecast is for May to end up slightly warmer-than-average.
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Looks like a wall of water heading our way. BUT! This band of showers will have a hard time making it into far eastern Ohio and western PA. That said, there can be spotty showers later this afternoon and evening. 15 hour futurecast:
Hourly chance for rain:
A seasonable day today.
The showers will make a southward push tonight but we expect tomorrow to be pretty cloudy with a little rain at times. Temperatures will be on the cool side as a result.
Rain totals over the next couple of days should average 0.25"-0.50".
Saturday looks warmer and we should see temperatures push into the 70s. Timing of the next front is pretty good in that the showers and storms will come mostly after dark Saturday night.
There might be some gusty thunderstorms with this front.Mother's Day still looks like a winner although it will be cool-ish with highs in the lower 60s.
Wednesday promises to be slightly warmer with some sunshine. A cold front will approach late in the afternoon but it is going to run out of steam fairly quickly. So, not much more than a shower or two late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Wetter weather to our west.
Setting the stage for a pleasant, seasonable Mother's Day on Sunday. Highs should be in the 60s.
There was hail with that storm but the hail ultimately stayed south of the East Liverpool area.Rain totals over the last 24 hours:
The rain is gone this morning and the balance of today will be mostly cloudy and tranquil. Current weather map:
Temperatures cooled into the 40s overnight and today will be a cool day overall with highs near 60.
Thursday will be damp and chilly with temperatures staying in the 50s. Some light rain and drizzle seems likely.
6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has a decent likelihood of some warm temperatures in our region:
Expect a several-hour period of rainy weather...things will become more scattered or "hit/miss" for the mid and late afternoon hours. 15 hour futurecast:
Breakdown of rain chances today:
Temperatures will really struggle today. Highs 52-56 on average.
Models in good agreement on rainfall totals over the next 36 hours:
Temperatures will stay cool Friday as well....no matter which model you look at...the answer is "grab the jacket". Highs again 52-56.
Expect periods of rain Saturday night into Sunday.
The rain is likely to stick around into at least part of Monday. The GFS model (shown) scoots the rain away too fast, in my opinion.
The weather is still quiet active in the middle of the country although severe weather will not be as common today as it was yesterday.
That storm system, in a weakened form, will track our way tomorrow. This will lead to a good chance for raindrops.
I suspect the wettest period will be the midday hours. The day should not be a total washout. Hourly odds of precipitation falling where you are (should say THURSDAY):
Temperatures may struggle Thursday. Some modeling has us barely into the lower 50s. Ignore the European model line (purple) as it is doing something funky.
Friday looks to stay cloudy and damp with an "inverted trough" setup over western PA/eastern OH. Can be a touch of rain at times.
Model rain totals through Friday:
On Sunday....rain is looking likely. The GFS model (shown) is probably too far south with the rain. Get the grass mowed on Saturday.
The band of heavy rain and thunder has pushed well south and many places have sunshine at 8:35am.
The front that is still off to our north will glide through around midday. There can be a spotty shower (small chance for thunder) but that is about it. Most of today will be dry. 15 hour simulated radar:
Temperatures will reach the mid and upper 60s around midday and then readings will hold steady or even slowly fall.
Severe weather outbreak is still expected today in the Plains states. Se veral large, long-lived tornadoes and plenty of large, damaging hail seem likely. The most active part of the day will be early this evening.
There is a very small, like 10% chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and early this evening. Don't cancel the outdoor plans. Hi-res simulated radar shows basically nothing:
A high risk of wet weather is in the forecast tonight into tomorrow. It will come in the form of scattered showers and perhaps some thunder. The threat for rain will end from north to south tomorrow afternoon and early tomorrow evening.
Speaking of severe weather, the biggest outbreak of the season so far is looking likely out in the Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night. There will likely be several tornadoes and plenty of large hail.
Back here at home, rain totals tonight into tomorrow will probably average 0.25-0.50".
By Tuesday night, our front will be sagging south and the sky will clear...a colder night ahead.
At this point, I think Saturday is the better half of the weekend as rain may return at some point Sunday.
Today will feature variable amounts of clouds and, while there can be a shower at just about any point....the rain is most likely later this afternoon into tonight. 15 hour simulated radar:
There is an outside chance for a stray thunderstorm this afternoon.Temperatures today are tricky. The potential is there for 75-77 degrees if the radar never fills in this afternoon. More clouds and showers=highs in lower 70s.
Total rainfall through Friday, according to the latest models:
After that, a shot of cooler air for midweek.
