WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JULY 5
https://youtu.be/8sngeLjW69U
TUESDAY (7/5) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
I hope your holiday was a good one....the weather was "so-so" but it was generally dry for fireworks displays last night.On to today....we are left with a lot of residual moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere this morning. It's a cloudy, murky morning with low cloud ceilings and even some fog.One of the ways we assess the state of the atmosphere above our heads are these complicated "skew t" diagrams. When we compare this morning's to what is expected this afternoon we see the moist layer thinning and becoming more elevated. This should lead to a brighter sky later today (but not perfectly sunny by any means)
LOADS of moist air east of the Rockies this morning. This map of the dewpoints screams "MID SUMMER!"
Highs today will be in the lower and middle 80s.
HEAT BUILDS
Wednesday will be an uneventful day aside from the high heat and humidity. Temperatures will make a run at 90. Ignore the green blobs around us, the model just sees a few clouds, not rain.
SOME RAIN LATE IN WEEK?
Thursday and Friday will be very warm, humid days. There is a chance for spotty thunderstorms both days. Thursday's disturbance will be weak so severe weather is not expected. Later Friday, a more substantial front will head our way and the result could be some stronger storms....particularly south and east of Youngstown. 
MORE COMFORTABLE WEEKEND
Behind the front, it looks like a nice summer weekend with seasonable temperatures and lower dewpoints.
Heating up again next week.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JULY 4
https://youtu.be/OmshsOoiI8E
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 30
https://youtu.be/IiON2E0R35U
BLOG: WEATHER THROUGH JULY 4TH
Good Thursday morning.....If you paid attention to weather forecasts on Wednesday you noticed that we had to insert the CHANCE for some rain on the 4th of July. Bummer right? Well we also advised our viewers and followers that it was a CHANCE and that checking the forecast often is a good idea as further refinements were a certainty.So here's a few thoughts as I look over the newest data this morning.
RAIN CHANCE #1: FRIDAY
A weak cold front will track our way Friday and there can be spotty shower and thunderstorm activity between 11am-5pm. Hopefully your yard gets a good drink. Not everyone's will.
Rain totals will average 0.05-0.15". Not a lot.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: STILL AWESOME
No problems these days. VERY low humidity for this time of the year and a good deal of sunshine. GREAT evenings for fireworks displays and anything else going on outdoors.
MONDAY THE 4TH
Here is where the forecast gets tricky. One trend in the overnight models has been to SLOW DOWN the rain shield that looks like it will try to head our way. If this trend proves to be correct, it's good news/bad news.Good news if you have outdoor plans during the daylight hours Monday.Bad news if you are heading downtown for the fireworks as that's when it is most likely to rain.Here's a couple of the models. The Canadain suggests it's trying to rain a little by 8pm. The GFS says it is still a couple of hours away.
Here's what I am thinking as far as an hour-by-hour breakdown of the rain chances Monday:8am-2pm: 0%2pm-5pm: 10%5pm-7pm 20%7pm-8pm: 30%8pm-11pm 40%Remember, keep checking the forecast as this is not set in stone by any means.You can get a complete list of fireworks displays, parades, etc here:http://www.wfmj.com/story/32274364/fireworks-and-independence-day-celebrations
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 29
https://youtu.be/gPUFjylbdNE
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 28
https://youtu.be/p48qBWycqM0
TUESDAY (6/28) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING,
Feels nicer out there this morning, right? We are done with the heat and humidity for a while. The second of two cold fronts is moving through the region today and this will reinforce the air mass change that began yesterday.
I can't rule out a sprinkle or shower this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes slightly unstable. 15 hour simulated radar:
Highs today in the mid 70s. Enjoy!
MIDWEEK PERFECTION
Not much to say about Wednesday and Thursday except it will be generally sunny and comfortable. Great summer weather.
FRIDAY'S WEAK FRONT
This front will not have much moisture to squeeze out. So just spotty showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon. Have outdoor plans through Friday evening? Keep 'em but just know that it might rain briefly.
JULY 4TH WEEKEND
Will this will be awesome. Low humidity and sunshine. All. Weekend. Including Monday the 4th.Notice the models do not advertise heat and humidity returning in force until after the holiday.
THIS JUNE VS. LAST JUNE
June 2015 was remarkably wet....this year not so much. Quite the difference!
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 27
https://youtu.be/gw1GdBxpnKg
MONDAY (6/27) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
Boy is it still muggy out there. Thankfully that is about to change! Dewpoint temperatures are near 70 this morning:
Drier air will make inroads over the next 48 hours. Even as early as this afternoon and evening you will notice the air mass feeling less "sticky".
Highs today will be similar to yesterday. Will we hit 90 for the first time this season (officially)? It will be close.
The second of two cold fronts will cross the region tomorrow afternoon. This is the front that has the truly cooler air behind it. Not much moisture to squeeze out tomorrow but there could be a stray shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Temperatures will stay in the 70s Tuesday and with dewpoints continuing to drop, it will be much more comfortable.
PLEASANT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
High pressure will pay us a visit and we look for lots of sunshine with comfortable temperatures. Highs in the mid and upper 70s.
FRIDAY'S FRONT
The next cold front is on schedule to arrive Friday. It will be fairly weak and moisture-starved. Not real impressed with potential rain totals with the boundary.
GORGEOUS HOLIDAY WEEKEND!
The weekend leading up to July 4 looks perfect. Sunshine and comfortable weather. Highs mainly in the 70s to around 80. Low humidity.
NOW THE BAD NEWS
It's been pretty dry over the last 6 weeks or so, not only locally but throughout the Northeast and Midwest.
Rain totals over the next 10 are likely to be paltry. We are going to continue to see things browning out.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 23
https://youtu.be/1vybWRLx7Do
THURSDAY (6/23) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
As expected, severe weather was not a problem for the Valley last night/early this morning. There were many reports of trees down, flooding and tornadoes from Illinois to West Virginia.
Beneficial rain did fall in the area, mainly from Youngstown south. Those with browning lawns in Trumbull and Mercer counties were not so lucky.
This morning it is pretty cloudy and muggy. Showers were to our south as of this writing (9:11am).
We expect there to be hit-or-miss showers through midday or early afternoon today. A thunderstorm can't be ruled out. Hi-res simulated radar:
A nice evening on the way with decreasing clouds. The lower dewpoint air that is to our northeast will mix in and it will feel less muggy late today and tonight.
FRIDAY AND WEEKEND
Friday a wave of low pressure will scoot by to our south and this will result in more clouds than it looked like there would be previously. A touch of rain can't be ruled out, mainly south of Rt 224.
Look for a hot and dry weekend. Dewpoints will come up enough on Sunday that it may be noticeable. Highs Sunday near 90. Hit the pool!
NEXT FRONT MONDAY MORNING
Looks like the next cool front will be a weak one. A couple of showers and storms late Sunday night into Monday morning and then pretty warm to hot again Monday afternoon.
LONG RANGE
A more comfortable air mass looks to arrive as we close out June. After that, back to the warm stuff although no July heat waves (90+ for a few days) seem likely...at least early in the month.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 22
https://youtu.be/kJHtHKoVLH0
BLOG: SEVERE WEATHER RISK EARLY THURSDAY
Good morning....A (hopefully) quick update on the severe weather risk across the region late tonight/early Thursday.Overall, the ideas are similar to yesterday but now we can "hone in" a little more on where the highest risks are and the timing.First of all, a quiet day today with the complex of storms well to our southwest missing the region. Just some high clouds mixing with sunshine for us.
Violent supercell thunderstorms will likely develop this evening over parts of the Midwest and start tracking southeast. The storms will likely evolve into more of a "squall line" or, if you really want to get fancy, a "mesoscale convective system". You may hear "derecho" thrown around and that's fine.....call it what you want but the name does not matter. What matters are the impacts.Those impacts will be significant for our neighbors to the west.Simulated model radar taking us through early tomorrow morning:
Here's where the Storm Prediction Center has the risks today and tonight:
A reminder of (generally) what these categories mean.
Notice that Columbiana County is in the "Enhanced" category. I think this is reasonable as the odds of getting hit by the main line of storms increase as you head south and west away from Youngstown. I suspect that you will see SPC "tighten up" the gradient between the categories this afternoon, with areas north and east of Youngstown moved into the "Marginal" instead of "Slight" risk.I say that because I suspect the line of damaging storms will move something like this:
Odds of different types of severe weather (SPC forecast):
The window for severe weather in our viewing area (again, it's most likely south/west of Youngstown) will be roughly 2-5am.Hopefully we just get a good soaking rain, which we need. Models showing around an inch but keep in mind amounts can be locally much higher if soaking downpours persist.
This is one of those situations where things CAN change. Keep checking the forecast. These thoughts seem reasonable to me at 9:30am but as new information becomes available there can be updates to the ideas. Be sure you are following me on social media.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 21
https://youtu.be/v0ZJ_tw1-Ms
TUESDAY (6/21) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
I am back after a long weekend. Welcome to (astronomical) Summer! Yesterday was a steam bath but a cold front is sagging southward through the region this morning and the air is drying out. Dewpoints are dropping through the 50s.
A nice Summer day today with highs in the lower 80s.
INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
Wednesday will be a calm, warm day...great day for the Cavs championship parade! Temperatures will once again climb into the low 80s.
Wednesday night? Potentially a different story. That warm front on the weather map will activate with severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening in the Upper Midwest (Milwaukee, Chicago, etc). A complex of severe thunderstorms will roll east as we get past sunset.The question is: where does this complex go? It MIGHT bend right and be more of a problem for Columbus and Cincinnati. But if it DOES take more of a north and eastward track, severe weather would be likely to occur in our area Wednesday night.Storm Prediction Center outlook:
As you can see, the highest confidence resides in places such as Chicago, Fort Wayne, etc. There will likely be isolated tornadoes and lots of wind damage in that corridor. Large hail as well.A "low-level jet", or a ribbon of strong winds not far above our heads (3,000-6,000 feet) will be fueling these storms. Storms can pull down those winds (of 80+ mph) easily.
Here's just ONE model's depiction of the radar at 2am Thursday. This will be WRONG by some degree, it's just a matter of how much. Tens of miles or hundreds??
LATE-WEEK AND WEEKEND
Whatever happens Wednesday night, the weather will improve later this week. Thursday could still be unsettled with showers and thunder, unless the overnight complex "eats up" most of the available moisture. Tough call. Friday looks pleasant and warm.
At this point, the weekend looks dry and steamy. Long-range temperature trends on the GFS and European models show plenty of warmth:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 16
https://youtu.be/zVfV38eXdxo
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 15
https://youtu.be/_AGun_ls5NU
WEDNESDAY (6/15) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING.....
We've enjoyed a fantastic stretch of weather but now a couple of different days are about to unfold.It's still not all that humid yet with dewpoints mainly in the 50s but a warm front is heading our way and it will deliver the soupy air, especially tonight and tomorrow.
Along the leading edge of that tropical air mass, we have thunderstorms this morning in western Ohio.
These storms will weaken as they encounter the drier air over northeast and northeast Ohio. Still, we may get a residual shower this afternoon. Our hi-res model shows an increasing threat for thunderstorms as we head toward evening.
A "Slight Risk" of severe weather exists today in the western 1/2 of the Buckeye State. Storms could produce hail and damaging winds this afternoon. I am not concerned about severe weather locally although a "strong" storm cannot be ruled out this evening.
A more active day is on tap for tomorrow. A humid air mass will be in place and a cold front will approach. Not a washout but...especially in the afternoon, we expect a few rounds of wet weather.
Notice the cluster of heavier-looking storms on the NAM model over SE Ohio. That's where the highest risk of severe weather is Thursday afternoon and evening. We can't rule it out across the Valley but the odds of hail and damaging winds are lower here.
FRIDAY: SETTING TABLE FOR WEEKEND
Friday will be a transitional day with decreasing clouds and lowering dewpoints. Look for a nice summer evening. The weekend still looks awesome with wall-to-wall sunshine and warm temperatures. Hit the pool!
LONG RANGE
A cold front will approach Monday night...ahead of it, a hot and humid day Monday with temperatures approaching 90.
Behind it, a brief cool down for midweek.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JUNE 14
https://youtu.be/JM2H6gFj5K0