MONDAY (7/25) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING!
That was a fast weekend, eh? The weather git (somewhat unexpectedly) busy Sunday afternoon with a round of heavy thunderstorms during the middle of the afternoon. Scattered wind damage resulted. The good news: some much needed rain for many.
Over the last week, beneficial rains have fallen, but not everywhere. Northern areas have done better than the southern half of the WFMJ viewing area.
This morning, it is warm, very muggy and quiet. A weak cool front is just off to our west:
As that front comes east today we look for very spotty/hit or miss-type showers and storms during the midday and afternoon. The storms will NOT impact as many people as yesterday. 15 hour futurecast:
The severe weather risk is also lower than yesterday, but not zero. Any storm could get strong and gusty. The Storm Prediction Center has the Valley in the "Marginal" or low risk area today. Higher chances of severe weather to our south and east.
It will be very warm today, highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Heat Index values can be a few or handful of degrees above the air temperature.
HUMIDITY RELIEF COMING
The cool front has NO cool air behind it but there is some drier air on the other side of the boundary. So we can expect dewpoints to retreat back into the upper 50s and lower 60s by tomorrow.
QUIET MIDWEEK
It will be warm, less humid and tranquil during midweek. Tuesday-Thursday looks like a rain-free stretch.
DAMP FRIDAY?
As is often the case in the medium/long range, there are some model differences regarding the next chance for rain Friday. There's a small chance for a needed "wash out" kind of day, but more likely it will be a "scattered rain" type of day.
The weekend will NOT be as hot as the one we just had!
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We will NOT have high humidity today as the real juicy air will remain just off to our west. So while it will be hot, the Heat Index will not be much different than the air temperature.There are heavy storms across the Upper Midwest this morning:
Along with a huge area covered by heat warnings and advisories:
Those storms, along the leading edge of the blast furnace, will weaken today but may re-fire tonight as the warm front pushes east. There is some concern about heavy storms being in the vicinity early Friday morning, as depicted on the NAM model:
Will that be it for the day? It's possible, although I would not be surprised to see spotty additional storms firing up in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has the region in the Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow. Severe weather risks include damaging winds and large hail but the overall chances for storms that strong are, well, marginal.
The weekend looks dry with only a small chance for a thunderstorm late Sunday. Higher chances Sunday night into Monday with a sluggish cold front.
LONG RANGE
In the meantime, the high heat is parked over the Midwest, for now. Oodles of heat watches, warnings and advisories:
The heat dome will remain centered over that part of the country but some of that hot, moisture-laden air will come east, starting tomorrow. We expect highs near 90 tomorrow although the dewpoints won't crack 60 in most spots until tomorrow night.
There can also be a couple of heavy thunderstorms Friday, mainly in the afternoon. This cold front is very weak but is running into a very unstable air mass. The Storm Prediction Center has the region under a "marginal" risk for severe weather.
More seasonable air will return early next week.
Meanwhile, the heat is building in the middle of the country.
Wednesday will be about the same, just a couple of degrees warmer. Dewpoints stay pretty low.
The Thursday-Sunday stretch will be out hottest of the season so far and likely our hottest in FOUR years. We generally consider a heat wave to be 3 or more 90+ days in a row and that is in our Friday-Sunday forecast.
A weak cool front may get close enough to spark spotty thunderstorms on Friday.
The heat should peak on Saturday. Heat index values may approach 100.
Models are consistent in showing the heat retreating early next week....back to just "typical" late-July conditions for us. Warm and humid.
Spotty power outages remained at 8:50am:
What about the rest of the day??? We have been advertising a chance for strong/severe storms in the afternoon but it looks like that threat is lowering quickly. Hi-res modeling shows little or nothing this afternoon and evening:
We can't rule out a feisty storm this afternoon but the chances appear to be quite low. Staying quite muggy today.
On to today. A quiet morning and we are seeing increasing sunshine. It is warm and very humid again with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70.
That cold front over the Midwest is heading our way and as it approaches we can expect spotty thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon. The air mass is plenty warm and humid, good fuel for the storms. The upper-level "dynamics" are not overly impressive once again but as we saw last night it does not take much for storms to get strong/severe in this environment.The Storm Prediction Center has us on the "low" or "marginal" risk for severe weather, meaning it is not likely but can't be ruled out either.
15 hour futurecast:
I think the threat window is roughly 4-8pm. Have your StormTracker 21 app handy.
Highs today will be similar to yesterday, maybe a couple of degrees cooler.....but the dewpoints have skyrocketed since last evening so, when the sun is out, it will FEEL much more stifling than yesterday.
Very spotty, hit/miss thunderstorms are in the forecast for this afternoon and evening. 15 hour futurecast:
Tomorrow will feature a cold front heading our way and thunderstorms will fire in some spots, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Severe weather risk is low but not zero. Even in a non-severe storm there could be some torrential downpours. Lots of moisture to wring out of the atmosphere.
That warm front off to the west is the leading edge of VERY humid air (dewpoints near or above 70) that will be heading our way tomorrow.
With the approach of a cold front, there can be more numerous thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. The needed ingredients for severe weather in the upper levels of the atmosphere are not that impressive but some strong storms are certainly possible.
The Storm Prediction Center has the area in the "marginal" risk for severe weather.
At most official climate sites across the region rain totals have been 50-75% of average over the last 60 days and of course in some locations the deficits are even larger.Over the next 10 days, I DO think we will see more frequent rains but how much is a tough call. The GFS suggests 1.5"-2" will be a good average:
The European model is more stingy with 1" or so":
On to Friday.A cold front will approach from the west and the air mass ahead of it will be very warm and humid once again. While the setup for severe weather (large hail, damaging winds) is not super impressive, things may still get pretty active.The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in the "Slight Risk" area (yellow):
5pm:
Remember that lightning is ALWAYS dangerous, severe thunderstorm or not. Make sure you have downloaded the Storm Tracker 21 app! 
A complex of thunderstorms will miss us well to the west today and we can expect a partly to mostly sunny sky.
I can't rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm tonight.
Friday's thunderstorm risk is higher and there is also a threat for severe weather. This cold front is strong enough, will be plowing into plentiful moisture, and will be approaching at the "right" time of day that this will be a day to be "weather aware".The Storm Prediction Center has most of the region in the "Slight" risk for severe weather.
Of course we will have lost of updates over the next 48 hours.
Sunday looks gorgeous and dry. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80.
Temperature trends on the computer models show the weekend cool down but the classic mid July heat returns next week.
