WEDNESDAY (8/10) MORNING WEATHER BRIEFING
GOOD MORNING.....
Some parts of the region did pretty well in the rain department last evening as some heavy storms rolled through between 9pm-12am. Some select rain gauge totals:
Didn't get a drop or very little last evening? Don't despair! MANY more chances for wet weather in the coming days.Dewpoints are in the "foggy windows" zone this morning. Mostly in the lower 70s. Yuck.
The radar just before 9am was pretty quiet locally although it was fairly cloudy.
We expect showers and storms to pop "here and there" this afternoon and early this evening. Classic hit/miss variety stuff. 15 hour futurecast:
Highs will be in the mid 80s today. With only a little sun, the heat index can spike into the 90s.
We expect tomorrow to be pretty similar to today. Friday as well, although I suspect Friday is a little hotter and a little drier than today and Thursday.
WEEKEND WASH OUT?
During the weekend, a cool front will approach and then stall over the region. This can lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. There is enough uncertainty at this stage of the game that I would not call either day a "washout" just yet but if you have outdoor plans, it's time to think about alternate ideas. Our confidence will grow in the timing and amount of rain in the next 24 hours or so.
HOW MUCH RAIN?
We still have a good chance at putting a dent in the drought in the coming days. We do NOT want flooding problems of course....and that will be a risk through the weekend. Some model information:European model (ensemble) odds of 2" or more through Monday night: pretty good odds.
4"? Lower odds but note the "bullseye" over us. We may have the highest odds out of the whole region.
GFS model odds of 2" or more. Again note the model trying to paint a relative "max" over the region.
Here's the NOAA guidance...they show 4" or more. Which I could see, although right now I lean more toward a 3" or so average. Key word: AVERAGE.Again, note the corridor of highest totals over our region.
So to sum up:
-Drought-denting rains likely through the weekend and perhaps Monday.
-Local flash flooding can occur in tropical downpours. The atmosphere has a TON of moisture to wring out.
-The weekend may be the wettest period with the highest risk of flooding. Still need to iron out weekend forecast.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
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It may come as a surprise, but July will go into the record books as WETTER than average. Huh?? My lawn is still really brown. Well the last couple of days of the month brought slow-moving thunderstorms with tropical downpours, at that jacked up the rain totals in many spots...including the airport. Final numbers:
Yes, the airport was one of the wetter spots. With over 1.5" of rain in the last 3 days, my house in Boardman had 4.1" for the month. Some were not so lucky. Overall rain compared to average in July shows plenty of dry areas:
On to August! Today will be a warm and humid one although the afternoon will not be as sunny as the start. In fact, a weak disturbance aloft may trigger a sprinkle or shower in one or two spots this afternoon.
Notice the lower dewpoints to our north and west....we'll get in on some of that drier air tomorrow. Not a huge change but dewpoints near 60 is better than near 70.
That cold front approaching on Friday is likely to bring showers and storms late in the day and at night.Temperatures will retreat nicely just in time for the weekend. Temperature trends next 2 weeks on GFS/European models:
The higher-dewpoint air will begin seeping north Thursday and the end of the week will be muggy. Notice the upward trend on the short-term models over the next few days. Dewpoints:
Thursday looks rain-free for most of the day with only a small chance for a late-day shower.
Better chance to see some needed raindrops on Friday. The GFS (shown) is not particularly wet but some of the other modeling has a more active day....and I lean toward that idea.
We look for a good deal of sunshine today. Tomorrow looks warm and dry with sunshine as well. Highs tomorrow in the upper 80s.
Friday could be an active day but some model solutions keep most of the moisture to our south and east. The GFS is one of those models:
Temperature trend:
