Weather For Weather Geeks September 27
https://youtu.be/dSHJvmVwL5w
Tuesday (9/27) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Today is a winner and easily the nicest day of the week. We'll have sunshine in abundance with temperatures a couple of degrees above average. There will be a noticeable breeze as well. Highs:
A true autumnal air mass. Look how dry the air is....dewpoints in the 30s and 40s. You don't see that in August!
HERE COMES THE UPPER LOW
From time to time an area of low pressure aloft "detaches" from the jet stream and "does it's own thing". We call these "cut off" upper-level lows. Well one of those is going to call Ohio and western PA home from tomorrow through at least the start of the weekend.
This means that our weather will be unsettled at times. Showers will visit on a few occasions Wednesday-Friday. There can be spotty afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday as well. Cut-off lows are fickle and can do strange things sometimes. We'll have to watch for "surprise" heavy bands of rain and even weak rotation in any storms. On the flip-side, pockets of dry air rotating around the low can give us extended periods where it is "not bad" out with some sunshine.
As the weekend arrives, this thing will still be in our hair so we have to allow for at least spotty showers Saturday. Sunday is the day it should start to move and there should not be much more than stray showers.
LONG RANGE
Next week looks warm for early October for everyone east of the Rockies.
I expect at least a couple or few days with highs 10 degrees above average.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
Looking to start a new streak today.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
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Weather For Weather Geeks September 26
https://youtu.be/Dqoh-uxYwvk
Monday (9/26) Morning Weather Briefing
MORNING!
What a weekend! A real treat after a long, hot summer and first few weeks of September. While this week will be unsettled at times, it will be comfortable overall. Let's get to the details.Today started fine but a wall of rain is heading our way this afternoon. This is with the cold front that will usher in the next round of cool air. Radar just before 9:00:
Hi-res futurecast shows rain is most likely between 1:30pm-3:30pm:
There is a chance for thunder with this. The chance of a heavy, gusty thunderstorm is highest to our southeast, where there is a "Marginal" risk for severe weather.
Rainfall totals today should average about 0.25".
There is a distinct air mass change behind this front, check out the temperatures in the Plains this morning:
BEST DAY OF WEEK: TUESDAY
We'll be behind the front Tuesday and the dreaded "upper low" that I will talk about in a moment will not have arrived yet. So a nice one with very comfortable temperatures; highs in upper 60s.
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM HELL
There is an old saying "upper level low=weatherperson's woe". There is a reason for that: upper-level lows are a pain. They tend to "be their own boss", just meandering and making for difficult forecasts. Well this week one of these buggers is going to detach from the jet stream and meander around the region for 4-6 days.What's that mean for our weather? Well we have to allow for at least the chance for showers every day from Wednesday through the weekend. It will also serve to keep temperatures rather cool.Wednesday is "arrival day" for this thing and our first chance for showers.
Thursday's upper-level map shows our bowling ball just sort of parked over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
By Sunday it will not have moved all that much.
Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans Thursday through the weekend, be ready for at least SPOTTY showers. We'll gain more confidence with respect to what days may be wetter than others as we get into midweek.This will be our coolest stretch of the season so far. Still looks warm for at least a few days next week.
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Friday (9/23) Morning Weather Briefing
HAPPY FRIDAY!
We have another warm one on the way today but some changes are on the horizon. We will remain south of a front today, allowing temperatures to get into the mid 80s this afternoon. It will also be rather muggy. 8am dewpoints:
Notice the drier air to the north of the front across the Upper Midwest. That is what will head our way for the weekend.The front itself will come through unannounced tonight. No rain is expected. 7pm temperatures for those heading to a football game:
High pressure will build in for the weekend. Enjoy some great early Fall weather tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the lower and middle 70s.
NEXT WEEK
The models have been having HUGE struggles with next week's pattern but finally today it looks like we have some agreement. A cold front will march across the Valley late Monday and Monday night, bringing a decent chance for showers.
Behind the front, an ACTUAL FALL-LIKE DAY for a change on Tuesday with variable cloudiness and a cool breeze. Temperatures are likely to stay in the 60s.
This will be a shot of "seasonably cool" air for a few days but as we have been saying, October is likely to start quite warm.
With this kind of pattern early in October, it will be more like early September.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
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Weather For Weather Geeks September 22
https://youtu.be/TSYCaMt_bqw
Weather For Weather Geeks September 21
https://youtu.be/RSobbmrdd7s
Weather For Weather Geeks September 20
https://youtu.be/_Gi0JMnPGWc
Tuesday (9/21) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD TUESDAY MORNING...
Thankfully this morning's fog was much more patchy and not as dense when compared to Monday morning. A sun-soaked day on the way today. The surface map shows a front to our west. The air overhead is already pretty dry with dewpoints in the 50s. The front will essentially wash out before reaching us but some modest additional drying out of the air will occur. This will result in a somewhat cooler night tonight.
REST OF THE WEEK: ZZZZZZZZZ
Sunshine will dominate through Thursday and part of Friday. Don't forget, Autumn begins at 10:21am on Thursday. It will be a great day for a swim! High in the mid 80s through Friday. Clouds may increase toward Friday evening but we look dry for high school football.
WEEKEND
The weekend looks awesome as high pressure builds in. In the wake of a cool front, it will not be as warm, especially Sunday. There is a small (10-20%) chance for a shower Saturday.
LONG RANGE TRENDS
The long-range trends are coming into better focus. The last several days of September will feature some near-seasonable air for a change...that means highs generally 66-72.
Around October 1st, I expect a warm up. The highs shown on the models above may be too low by at least a few degrees during the first several days of October.BTW, this may end up as the warmest September on record in Youngstown.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
We had a miss on Saturday (3 degrees off) after a streak of 34 days. New streak started!
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Weather For Weather Geeks September 19
https://youtu.be/Bd2PzPokJuE
Monday (9/19) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
After an unsettled weekend, a much calmer work week will unfold across the Valley. Today started with areas of fog; here's what our camera showed around 7:45:
Once the fog lifts, a nice afternoon on the way as drier air (just to our west early today) is coming. Dewpoints:
It'll be less humid but still warm with highs in the lower 80s.
The rest of the week? A snoozer! A weak front will fizzle out before reaching us Tuesday. Look for another warm one with a good deal of sun.
Wednesday and Thursday look sunny and warm. The next front is on the way Friday night into Saturday.
I suspect we are dry for high school football Friday evening. Saturday could bring a spotty shower as the cooler air filters in.Temperature-wise, this will be quite a week. We have 80s in the forecast every day through Friday. Then, a somewhat more typical early Autumn pattern starting over the weekend.
Assuming we hit 80 or above each of the next 5 days, it will be the most significant late-season warm spell since early October of 2007, when we were in the 80s for 5 straight.
If September ended today it would be the 4th warmest on record in Youngstown. With all the warm weather we will see this week, I have to think we have a shot at securing the #1 mark or at least #2.
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Friday (9/16) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
I am back after a great week at the National Weather Association Annual Meeting. Was a lot of fun and very informative. Of course one of the highlights of the week was meeting Jim Cantore.
On the the weather. Another crisp start to the day across the region. Think it was chilly here? Check out Saranac Lake, New York (circled). Brr!
Today will bring a warmer afternoon despite the cool start. Highs today 80-82. Higher dewpoint air will start making it's way north and it will feel humid tonight and tomorrow.
It will be another beautiful Friday night for high school football. Dry with temperatures staying elevated. Not much need for the hoodie. Temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 by the end of the games.
WET WEEKEND
It's been a nice week of weather but the weekend will be a different story. Saturday will not be a "rainy" day...in other words it is not going to rain all day. But there can be some pockets of rain and thunder around at any point. Here's one of the models at 1pm, showing the scattered nature of the rain:
A sluggish cold front will limp across the region Saturday night into Sunday, keeping our rain chances high. Again, Sunday does not look like a washout but it can rain at just about any time.
How much rain? Our models are showing mostly around 0.50-0.75" with the RPM showing quite a bit more. I think an average of 0.50"-1.00" is likely for the weekend.
After the weekend, next week looks pretty quiet.
The story will become WARM weather, mainly during the 2nd half of the week. While 90 is not likely, we can have a couple/few days with highs in the mid 80s. Pretty toasty for the 2nd half of September!
Notice the cooler weather shown in the longer range.Speaking of September, the first half of the month was a warm one across the eastern half of the country.
Here in Youngstown we have had back-to-back warm openings to September. 2015 and 2016 brought the warmest starts to September since 1991.
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Weather For Weather Geeks September 8
https://youtu.be/Km_rg6nFwNI
Thursday (9/8) Morning Weather Briefing
GREETINGS!
It's not exactly going out on a limb but I will offer this prediction: today will be the "steamiest" day until next summer. We may see temperatures in the mid 80s a couple of more times, but with this kind of humidity? Unlikely.Heat and humidity will help to fuel some showers and thunderstorms later today. The radar is quiet locally this morning but as you can see there is plenty of action to our west.
A look at our hi-resolution modeling shows an increasing threat for storms starting around mid-afternoon.
The chance for a shower and thunderstorm will continue through the evening. Let's talk about the threats today. I think there are 2 main ones: isolated damaging wind gusts and tropical downpours. I issued this graphic last night and I think it's still valid, although I may set the end time at 9-10pm instead of 8pm.
The Storm Prediction Center has kept the region in the "marginal" or "low" risk for SEVERE weather. Remember storms can cause problems even when they don't technically meet the criteria for a "severe" storm.
There is a ton of moisture available to be "wrung out", especially by September standards. One way to visualize this is by looking at the "precipitable water" in the column of air above our heads. Where you see the orange-red colors the "PWAT" is around 2" or so.
Notice the much drier air north of the cold front. A little of that will filter in tomorrow, meaning the afternoon will be less humid. Should be a quiet, pleasant evening for high school football.
Showers can return Friday night and Saturday looks unsettled at times. The next cold front is a strong one with a big air mass change coming behind it. Ahead of it, we expect a warm, humid Saturday. A lot of the time will be dry but be on guard for a shower or storm at any point. The most organized thunderstorm activity is likely to be toward evening.
GORGEOUS SUNDAY/MONDAY
MUCH less humid with sunshine. Great sleeping weather. Enjoy!
MEDIUM/LONG RANGE
The next front will arrive around midweek. A brief warm up ahead of it Tuesday; it can get into the mid 80s. Only chance for rain next week is Tuesday night/Wednesday with the front. Behind it, pleasant, seasonable September weather looks likely.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
2nd-longest streak of the year!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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Weather For Weather Geeks September 7
https://youtu.be/qzylkiEHqUw
Wednesday (9/7) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Some "sneaky" showers were trying to push into the NW part of our viewing area as of this writing (9:15am). They were showing signs of weakening.
After this batch moves through, we expect very little shower/storm activity for the rest of the day. A 20% chance for a stray cell to briefly impact your location. Hi-res futurecast:
HEAT is the big story today. We should we near yesterday's high of 88....probably even a notch or two above that. With such a tropical air mass, heat index values can reach the mid 90s this afternoon:
On Thursday, the first of two cold fronts will track our way. I suspect the highest chance for showers and storms will be late in the afternoon and into the evening as the front approaches.
The Storm Prediction Center has the region in the "marginal" risk for severe weather. Meaning there is a small chance (but not 0%) that any storms produce damaging winds and large hail.
Before any storms fire, it will be another stifling day with heat index values north of 90 degrees:
HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL OUTLOOK
For week 3, what was a pretty tricky forecast is now a somewhat easier call. Thursday's front will settle south of the area, allowing somewhat drier air to filter in. A wave of low pressure will try to form along the front and drag rain back north and east, but IF that even happens, it should be AFTER Friday's games have ended.
THE WEEKEND
The second, stronger cold front will sweep across the area Saturday night. Ahead of it, pretty warm and humid Saturday with highs in the mid 80s. While there can be spotty shower/storm activity before Saturday evening, I suspect that the majority of the raindrops come toward sunset and into Saturday night.
MUCH drier and more comfortable air is on the way for Sunday and Monday. Sunday may start cloudy but will end on a beautiful note. Open the windows!
LONG RANGE
A quick warm up Tuesday ahead of the next front which will knock temperatures back again for the second half of next week. A seasonable period seems likely for mid-month. Not hot but not October-ish either.
Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook:
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
2nd-longest streak of the year!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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Weather For Weather Geeks September 6
https://youtu.be/z3iRgQkyJaA
Tuesday (9/6) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Back to work and school for most today and it's the "unofficial" start of the Autumn season. Nature doesn't pay attention to calendars sometimes and this will be one of those weeks. Temperatures will climb into the mid 80s today with a noticeable increase in humidity, especially later today.
Notice there are a couple of spritz's off to our west near the dewpoint boundary. I can't rule out a passing shower today but the odds of your location seeing raindrops are only 10-20%.
Hi-res futurecast:
Tomorrow will be even hotter and more humid. Highs near 90 (the record high is 91, btw)
There is not much of a trigger for showers/storms tomorrow and the atmosphere will be largely "capped", meaning there will be a layer of warm air aloft that will not allow storms to form easily. That said, there is a small chance for a pop-up shower or storm in the afternoon.
2 FRONTS
The first of 2 cold fronts will cross the area late Thursday. So, a shower and thunderstorm will be around the region in the afternoon and evening.
That front will hit the brakes and stall somewhere just to our south. Then, a wave of low pressure will take a ride along the boundary, spreading rain and thunder back into the region sometime Friday/Friday night. But when?? Will the rain be back for high school football? Important question but we don't know the answer yet. Stay tuned.GFS model says: rainy for football:
Front #2 is MUCH stronger. It arrives late Saturday and will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some could be strong if the timing is right.
Behind the front, a refreshing air mass will be here for a couple of days. Beautiful Sunday and Monday. After that, a brief warm up but overall mid-month looks comfortable:
Autumn is going to start making more and more invasions into the US. There might be an early-season frost threat in the Upper Midwest next week:
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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Weather For Weather Geeks September 5
https://youtu.be/XD5WEebdnb8
Weather For Weather Geeks September 1
https://youtu.be/U8Jt4Ivo4ao