Wednesday (10/26) Morning Weather Briefing

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GOOD MORNING!

Go Tribe!A cold start this morning as expected; some places had temperatures below 30 at the start of the day.Click to EnlargeIt's going to be a struggle in the temperatures department today as clouds slowly thicken. We'll see highs in the upper 40s....well below average. Meanwhile, a warm front is off to our west:Click to EnlargeOminous, right? Well a lot of that rain in western Ohio  is going to have a tough time reaching the ground in NE Ohio and western PA this afternoon, thanks to dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere. That said, we will have a 20% chance in the forecast for this afternoon as someone might see a shower or sprinkle.Click to EnlargeOverall, dry through this evening then rain will push in overnight. Hi-res futurecast:Click to EnlargeThe start of game 2 has been moved up to 7:08 this evening, a good move although the latest model trends suggest that an 8:08 start may have been ok too. Rain chances will increase quickly in Cleveland after 11:00.Click to EnlargeRain will be around late tonight and tomorrow morning with spotty residual showers in the afternoon. Temperatures will slowly fall with a chilly breeze tomorrow afternoon.Click to EnlargeRain totals will average 0.3"-0.5".Click to EnlargeA better day Friday with a cool, pleasant evening for football.Click to EnlargeThe weekend looks to start on a breezy, warmer note with a southwest wind. We have temperatures in the 60s in our forecast. Might be a shower late.Click to EnlargeThat front may stall overhead Sunday, leading to a chance for showers.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

Warm to start next week then a retreat back to average looks likely.Click to Enlarge 

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WINTER FORECAST

We are about ONE week away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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Tuesday (10/25) Morning Weather Briefing

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GOOD TUESDAY MORNING....

An uneventful Fall day on tap for today with times of sunshine and times of clouds. A chilly one but not quite as blustery as yesterday.Click to EnlargeThe sky will be mainly clear to patrtly cloudy for part of the night tonight, allowing it turn colder. Temperatures would drop even lower if not for some clouds moving in late.Click to EnlargeNO problems for Game 1 of the World Series in Cleveland tonight (other than it will be cold!). First pitch temperature in the upper 40s.Click to EnlargeNotice the chance for rain for Game 2 on Wednesday. A warm front will be lifting across the region Wednesday. There may be a little afternoon and early evening rain but I dfon't think that is a big deal.Click to EnlargeWhat can be more problematic for the game is the steadier rain that will likely move in as the evening progresses.Click to EnlargeSo I can see a scenario where the game starts on time but there are delays later. Hopefully not a postponement.Rain will be with us overnight Wednesday night into early Thursday. Thursday afternoon looks drier but it will be blustery with falling temperatures.Click to EnlargeRain totals of around 0.50-0.75" are likely. I like the higher end of our computer model spread here:Click to Enlarge

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

Friday will bring some sunshine back and it should be a nice, crisp evening for football.Click to EnlargeA quick but impressive shot of warmth looks likely Saturday ahead of the next cold front. I can see where temperatures get well into the 60s with a gusty breeze. Looks like we will be lowering rain chances that day too.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

Mild readings to wrap up October and start November. Looking at a colder pattern by the 2nd week of the month.kyng_2016102500_eps_min_max_15 kyng_2016102500_min_max_16

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WINTER FORECAST

We are about ONE week away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

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Monday Morning (10/24) Weather Briefing

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GOOD MORNING!

It's a new work week and we have plenty to talk about. After a beautiful Sunday, today will be "less nice" with clouds much of the day. Temperatures this morning are within a degree or two of 50 in most spots and temperatures this afternoon will be....pretty much the same. What you see is what you get today!Click to EnlargeClick to Enlarge What about showers? I suspect most areas from Youngstown south and west will be dry. The farther north and east you go, the higher the likelihood of seeing a shower or two during the midday and afternoon. Some lake-effect rain shower activity, with a Lake Huron connection, will be aimed at far NE Ohio and NW PA.Futurecast:Click to Enlarge

MIDWEEK

A brighter day coming up on Tuesday (with clouds perhaps stubborn to break in Mercer County) and with a clear sky Tuesday night we probably have our coldest night of the season so far on the way. Lows of 27-32 will be common.Click to Enlarge Click to Enlarge Our next chance for wet weather will be Wednesday evening/night (with a warm front) and Thursday (with a cold front). Getting a little concerned about some wet weather for Game 2 of the World Series in Cleveland.Click to Enlarge Click to Enlarge The wettest part of Thursday is likely to be in the morning. A gusty breeze all day.

FRIDAY+LONG RANGE

Friday looks good. Seasonably chilly for week 10 of high school football.Click to Enlarge Rain probably returns with the next system on Saturday.I think October will end and November will begin with a mild weather pattern. 6-10 day outlook:Click to Enlarge  

WINTER FORECAST

We are about ONE week away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpgInterested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Wednesday (10/19) Morning Weather Briefing

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GOOD MORNING.....

As expected we had some showers overnight. A little appetizer with the main course coming later tonight through Friday. Some local rain totals:Click to EnlargeA nice one today with a good deal of afternoon sunshine. Temperatures remain on the mild side for the middle of Autumn.Click to EnlargeClouds will increase this evening. A wave of low pressure along an old front will move northeast and the result will be a period of rain later tonight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow's forecast is a bit tricky as there could be substantial differences in the "flavor" of the day across our viewing area. I suspect a "dry slot" will move into the region during midday Thursday, allowing the rain to taper off and even end for a while. Temperatures can warm wherever the dry slot is. The most likely places for this will be south and east of Youngstown. So there may be a few hours where it's pretty decent outside with temperatures warming close to 70 in the East Liverpool area while Newton Falls, Kinsman, etc are stuck in clouds and the upper 50s.Where the dry slot opens up there might be a spotty thunderstorm or two that develops in the more unstable air. The Storm Prediction Center actually has a "marginal" risk for severe weather as far north as about Rt 30:Click to Enlargeunderstanding_categoriesEither way, everyone will get wet again as we go toward evening. Thursday evening weather map:Click to EnlargeThe rain will continue Thursday night into Friday. Showers may become less numerous around football time but plan on bringing the poncho anyway.Click to EnlargeRain totals through Friday can be around 2 inches on average. NWS forecast:Click to EnlargeComputer models:modelrainNeed to rake? Take care of it today if you can!Click to Enlarge

WEEKEND OUTLOOK

Saturday will be November-ish with clouds, spotty showers and a cold, gusty wind. Still think there might be snowflakes seen in the higher terrain to our east. Highs Saturday near 50; it will feel colder.Click to EnlargeSunday looks sunnier and more seasonable with highs in the upper 50s.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

Fairly typical late October pattern next week.kyng_2016101900_eps_min_max_15 kyng_2016101900_min_max_166-10 day outlook:Click to Enlarge

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WINTER FORECAST

We are about TWO weeks away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpgInterested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Tuesday (10/18) Morning Weather Briefing

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GOOD MORNING!

Feels like summer out there this morning as overnight temperatures only dropped into the mid 60s. We are firmly situated in the warm sector of a system that is still well off to our west.Click to EnlargeTemperatures will race into the lower 80s this afternoon. Today's record high of 84 is safe but wow 21 degrees above average today.Click to EnlargeNotice on the map above the the isobars or lines of equal pressure are packed pretty tightly. We can expect a gusty breeze today. Some gusts can reach 25-30 mph.Click to EnlargeThe first of 2 cold front will track our way tonight. The first one will be pretty weak and will bring spotty showers after sunset this evening. Although it will cloud up toward dinner time, you will have no trouble with raindrops during the daylight hours today. Simulated radar:Click to Enlarge

CHANGES ARE A' COMIN'

Wednesday will be a pretty nice day with some intervals of sunshine. It won't be quite as warm but still well above average!Click to EnlargeThen things go downhill. As a sluggish system moves east, rain will become likely Wednesday night into Thursday. There may even be a thunderstorm Thursday, especially south of 224.Click to EnlargeTricky temperature forecast Thursday as it could be a day where the airport is stuck around 60 but southern Columbiana County is closer to 70.Rain totals through Thursday night can reach an inch and more is on the way for Friday.Click to EnlargePlan on a MUCH cooler day Friday with showers and a chilly, gusty breeze.Click to EnlargeThe weekend will start out chilly and cloudy with spotty showers. Temperatures not much better than 50 Saturday.Click to EnlargeThere's blue on that map! Yes it's possible that the higher terrain (say above 1500') in west-central PA could see some snowflakes Saturday. Nothing unusual for October 22.

LONG RANGE

A much more typical late October pattern will settle in for next week with lots of days with highs near average. Models:kyng_2016101800_eps_min_max_15 kyng_2016101800_min_max_16

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WINTER FORECAST

We are about TWO weeks away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date!

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpgInterested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Monday (10/17) Morning Weather Briefing

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I'M BACK!

After a week away I am back in the swing of things this morning. After a BALMY weekend, we'll be busting out the shorts again today. Last night's rain is pushing away:Click to EnlargeVisible satellite pics are tough to come by this early in the day at this time of the year because of the late sunrises, but the cloud shot at around 8:30 showed the clouds thinning out to our west.Click to EnlargeHi-res modeling shows a generally sunny sky by this afternoon:Click to EnlargeTemperatures today will be nearly TWENTY degrees above average. A record? Nope, today's record high is 83, set in 1938.Click to Enlarge

SUMMER CONTINUES TUESDAY

Tuesday looks even warmer(!). Tuesday's record is 84 set in 1938 and we will make a run at it. A gusty southwest breeze and some sunshine will accompany the amazing warmth.Click to EnlargeClick to Enlarge

GETTING BACK TO NORMAL

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night and there may be some showers along it. In the wake of the front, Wednesday will be ONLY 10 degrees above average instead of 20-25.Click to EnlargeThe more significant front will slog through on Thursday into Thursday night and a few rounds of rain are likely. There may be thunder too.Click to EnlargeThere is some question as to how long the chance for rain will linger into Friday; I suspect the highest chance will be early in the day. It will feel more like Autumn either way with highs in the upper 50s to 60.Click to EnlargeWe expect the weekend to be fairly uneventful although a passing shower will be a possibility. Temperatures near average with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

Expecting a less amplified pattern in the medium and long range, which means lower chances for crazy warmth (or unusual cold). The Climate Prediction Center does have decent odds for an above-average period in the 8-14 day range.814temp-new

WINTER FORECAST

We are about TWO weeks away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Stay tuned for an exact date! 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpgInterested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Monday (10/3) Morning Weather Briefing

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GOOD MONDAY MORNING!

The new work week began with a seasonable start to the day (temperatures in the 40s) and some patchy fog. The balance of today will be uneventful with some sunshine. The crazy upper-level low pressure system that has been hounding us for days is finally moving out of the region.Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeIt is going to be a tranquil week. The weather pattern will get gummed up again but this time it will work in our favor as a ridge of high pressure will reside over the region. We expect a good deal of sunshine through the end of the work week.Click to EnlargeTemperatures will warm. In fact readings can be as much as 12-14 degrees above average later this week. Enjoy!Click to Enlarge

THE WEEKEND+ MATTHEW

Our weekend may start with a cool front sliding through and providing the chance for showers Saturday. The timing of that front will depend some on the progress of Hurricane Matthew, which by the weekend will be putting a scare into the SE US.Click to EnlargeAll interests in coastal parts of the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic should be keeping a close eye on the evolving forecasts for Matthew. Right now the highest odds are on Matthew skimming the coast but not making landfall....however the chances of a landfall or a complete miss are far from zero. All options are on the table this far out.Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

Notice on the temperature chart above that we have a cool down coming NEXT week? Models are in decent agreement that a trough of low pressure will set up over the Northeast late next week and that will drive some chilly mid-October air into our region.Click to EnlargeClick to Enlarge 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpgInterested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Thursday (9/29) Morning Weather Briefing

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GOOD MORNING TO YA,

Well we need the rain. As expected, a couple of unsettled days on the way for eastern Ohio and western PA. Rainfall totals of 0.25"-0.50" have been fairly common over the last 24 hours:Click to Enlarge Early this morning the radar showed spotty showers but a lack of "steady" rain (unlike in central and eastern PA):Click to Enlarge I think that's the way it will go for much of the morning and afternoon: hit/miss showers but plenty of dry intervals. Rain chances will increase toward dinnertime, as shown by our high-resolution short-term modeling:Click to Enlarge Even the high-res models are going to struggle with the placement of the bands of rain over the next couple of days. We have to avoid taking them verbatim and instead paying attention to the general nature of what it is depicting. And that means a higher chance for widespread rain by this evening.Temperatures will struggle today, staying in the 60s s all day.Click to Enlarge A fairly similar day Friday, plenty of dry intervals but a good chance for passing rain/showers. Plan on grabbing the poncho for high school football.Click to Enlarge The NWS forecast of an average of 1.5" of rain seems reasonable. Some will get quite a bit less, some could get a little more. A good drink of water.Click to Enlarge

WEEKEND IMPROVEMENT

The improvement will be slow but it will come. Saturday can still bring spotty showers but also some intervals of sunshine. I think Sunday is largely dry and pleasant as the cut-off low finally starts to move out of the region.Click to Enlarge Click to Enlarge

LONG RANGE

Still on track for a period of well above-average temperatures next week.Click to Enlarge

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpgInterested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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Wednesday (9/28) Morning Weather Briefing

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GOOD MORNING!

You may have noticed our forecast for today undergoing some changes last evening and those changes look like the right moves. The upper low that is set to impact the area is tracking a bit farther west than it looked previously and that will have a big impact on our weather today. While central and western Ohio will have a rainy Wednesday, we are far enough east that we are not looking at MUCH rain.Click to Enlarge15 hour hi-res futurecast:Click to EnlargeThere can be a shower in spots from mid-afternoon on and a thunderstorm can't be ruled out, but many will stay dry during the daylight hours. This will also have an impact on temperatures. Instead of staying in the 60s, we'll enjoy readings in the lower 70s this afternoon.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY STILL LOOK WET

The cutoff upper low is still expected to bring showery rains to the region Thursday, Thursday night and Friday. It won't rain the entire time. The wettest period may be Thursday night. The NWS "Excessive Rainfall" outlooks show small chances for localized flooding: Click to EnlargeClick to EnlargeAs you can see, the risk of flooding is quite a bit higher to our southeast. Here's a look at the NWS rainfall forecast through Friday. These numbers seem reasonable to me. An average of 1"-1.75" seems likely locally.Click to Enlarge Click to Enlarge The Washington/Baltimore region is in for a long few days with widespread flooding a concern.

THE WEEKEND

By the weekend, the low pressure system will be weakening and starting to slowly pull north. This should result in more sunshine and fewer showers.....although there can still be a couple around, especially Saturday.Click to EnlargeClick to Enlarge

NEXT WEEK: WARM

We are still on track to see a few balmy October days next week with high temperatures between 74-78 during midweek.Click to Enlarge

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

11021107_10205970895171992_1097600459631042738_n.jpgInterested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet

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