Weather For Weather Geeks November 15
https://youtu.be/mSvm_1F1rJ8
Tuesday (11/15) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Well...if you liked Sunday and Monday, you'll like today! It's another "rinse and repeat" day with a decent amount of sunshine and afternoon temperatures around 56-58.
A minor weather disturbance will cross the region late tonight into tomorrow morning, bringing some clouds back in and only isolated sprinkles/showers. I suspect we see an increase in sunshine tomorrow afternoon.
BUCKLE UP!
After a beautiful, sunny Thursday with highs in the lower 60s, Friday will be even more amazing with temperatures approaching 70 and lots of sunshine. Wow!
Notice the isobars packing together in the afternoon...it will turn breezy/windy.
The weekend is going to be wild. A powerful cold front will cross the area Saturday and temperatures will probably fall out of the 50s and through the 40s. It will be quite windy. Rain showers can change to snow showers before the day is out.
As the first truely cold air mass of the season pours over the very warm Great Lakes, lake-effect should get going in ernest Saturday night into Sunday. I expect the snow to be plentiful in the primary snow belts and in the mountains east of Pittsburgh.
How much snow in the Youngstown area? Way too soon for numbers but it would not surprise me if some have to dust off the shovel. Lake-effect is fickle and you can get almost nothing while there is accumulation 3 blocks away.Here's just one run of one model. Ignore the numbers; I show this only to give you a sense of WHERE the highest totals are likely to be,
The wind will be vicious Sunday and it will FEEL 45-50(!) degrees colder than Friday.
Wintry conditions will probably continue into Monday but thankfully there are no winter-weather concerns for Thanksgiving travelers after Monday.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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Weather For Weather Geeks November 14
https://youtu.be/c6E-XANHl6A
Monday (11/14) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
What a weekend it was with loads of sunshine, cold, frost mornings but pleasant afternoons. Did you like Sunday? Today is pretty much the same day, maybe even a degree or so warmer. Highs today in the mid 50s.
Quiet weather will continue Tuesday before a weak disturbance arrives late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Not much more than a passing shower or two with that.
BIG WARM UP
A strong southerly flow will develop Thursday and Friday and the result will be soaring temperatures. Friday will turn breezy to windy. Highs Friday 64-67!
BIG COOL DOWN
But then some big changes. A cold front will roll through the Valley on Saturday and this front will usher in the coldest air of the season so far for Sunday and Monday.
Check out the temperature plunge:
With the Great Lakes so warm, you bet there will be lake-effect snow....likely the first significant lake-effect event of the season.
The primary snow belt areas (Chardon, Ashtabula, etc) could even get several inches out of this. It's possible that parts of the WFMJ viewing area get enough to cover the ground. It is MUCH too early for specifics beyond that.Just a model, NOT a forecast:
Temperatures are likely to rebound back to about average for the Thanksgiving holiday.
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
Weather For Weather Geeks November 10
https://youtu.be/3EnhEaKivsc
Weather For Weather Geeks November 9
https://youtu.be/j-rzCW4dkN8
Weather For Weather Geeks November 8
https://youtu.be/z54tqBB2bw8
Tuesday (11/8) Morning Weather Briefing
HAPPY ELECTION DAY!
Election day here in the Valley will be a pretty nice one considering it's early November. Not as bright and sunny as yesterday but still mild. Clouds will increase today but temperatures will still be 10-12 degrees above average.
Showers will push in just after sunset. Futurecast loop:
Look for a rainy evening but, again, before sunset rain chances are pretty low.
Rain amounts through tomorrow morning are likely to average 0.15"-0.20".
THE DAY AFTER
The day after election day, assuming we have survived, will be quite a different day with temperatures holding in the 40s all day. Clouds can drop a shower or two, mainly before noon. A chilly breeze will make it feel even cooler.
Thursday looks good with sunshine and temperatures back into the mid 50s. Nice November day.
The next front will arrive Friday....very little moisture to work with some we don't expect much more than a passing shower. Quite chilly by the end of the day with a gusty breeze.
WEEKEND
A flurry or two will be possible Friday night and early Saturday. Otherwise, expect a quiet weekend. Chilly Saturday with highs in the 40s but Sunday will feature temperatures in the lower 50s by the afternoon.
LONG RANGE
Temperatures will rebound early next week but there may be a quick push of chilly air at the end of the week.
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
Weather For Weather Geeks November 7
https://youtu.be/8WHrboz9_CY
Monday (11/7) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
What a weekend. The great weather continues today with loads of sunshine. We got off to a cold start but afternoon temperatures will be well into the 60s. Would not be surprised if the airport touched 67 or 68 today.
November is obviously off to a very warm start, not only here but across the nation as a whole. Temperatures compared to average so far:
Changes are finally on the way. Election Day will bring increasing clouds and a threat for showers toward sunset and as the polls close.
In the wake of that front, we expect a brisk and colder day Wednesday with a shower possible, mainly in the morning. Temperatures mainly in the 40s Wednesday.
After a tranquil Thursday, the next front will track our way for the end of the week....it'll be a strong one but will not be able to wring out much more than a shower on Friday.
Brisk and cold for high school football playoff games Friday evening. There might be snow flurries seen across NE Ohio and western PA Friday night into Saturday morning. Not looking for anything more than cosmetic coatings on windshields and what not.
Saturday will be the coldest day of the season so far with temperatures not much higher than 40 and wind chills closer to freezing.
No measureable snow yet at the airport and we are overdue. The average date of first measureable snow is the 4th of November but as you can see there is quite a variance from year to year.
Interesting that the latest date occurred in 1995. 1995-1996 is one of the "analog" years in our Winter Forecast. In other words, a year that we expect this winter to haver some similarities to. Speaking of which....
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
2016-2017 Winter Forecast
https://youtu.be/3AfN20ulFo0
Weather For Weather Geeks November 2
https://youtu.be/PBK_xXeCQuA
Wednesday (11/2) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Game 7 tonight. I am a ball of nerves today. Let's power through.A cloudier start to the day today but it will turn out to be a lot like yesterday. The record high of 78 is probably safe but we can get within a couple of degrees of it!
But the crazy warmth will end after today. The reason? No surprise, a cold front is on the way. The rain associated with the front will be approaching Cleveland late this evening....unless the game goes extra innings I think it will stay dry during the game. But by 1-3am, rain will be advancing across northern Ohio and headed for the Mahoning Valley.
Plan on a wet start to your Thursday. By midday, the steadiest rain will be pushing east and we'll be left with clouds and slowly falling temperatures. Afternoon temperatures will be about 20 degrees colder than today. There might be a few more showers or some drizzle late in the afternoon and evening.
QUIET FRIDAY AND WEEKEND
Tranquil, seasonable weather will resume Friday through Sunday. Friday will be chilly with highs only around 50. Somewhat milder ahead of a cold front Saturday but then a few degrees colder again for Sunday.
ELECTION DAY WEATHER
Looking quiet for Tuesday...no weather-related reasons to not get out and vote! Highs near 60.
LONG RANGE
While the core of the unseasonable warmth will be centered across central and western Canada and the central US next week, it will not be a "cold" pattern for us. A week of mostly seasonable to somewhat above average temperatures looks likely.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
Took one on the chin yesterday as the atmosphere really "overachieved"!
WINTER FORECAST
This is the week! My Winter 2016-2017 forecast will debut on Thursday. Tune into 21 News at 6&11. A much more detailed version of the forecast will be posted right here.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
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CONNECT:
Weather For Weather Geeks November 1
https://youtu.be/gEKTlIvR4JQ
Tuesday (11/1) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
November has arrived...break out the shorts! A mix of sun and clouds again today with temperatures climbing up to between 70-73 degrees this afternoon. Enjoy!
Tomorrow looks just as warm if not warmer as a warm front lifts north through the Great Lakes.
DRY and WARM weather for Game 6 of the World Series this evening and, if neccessary, tomorrow evening as well.
COLD FRONT
The next cold front will push rain into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Plan on a soggy start Thursday:
Most, if not all the rain should be gone by Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will fall Thursday so the high will occur early in the morning. The afternoon will be brisk and chilly....much different than Wednesday afternoon!The work week will end on a quiet and chilly note Friday; afternoon temperatures not much better than 50.
WEEKEND+LONG RANGE
The weekend looks tranquil as well. Temperatures in the 50s each afternoon. Daylight Saving Time ends Sunday morning at 2am.
Election Day is a week away. We can start taking reasonable shots at the forecast for that day at this point. No bug weather makers are likely to be around. The European model depicts a weak front that might bring a shower. The GFS model is bone dry.
Temperatures should be near average, in the mid 50s in the afternoon.
WINTER FORECAST
This is the week! My Winter 2016-2017 forecast will debut on Thursday. Tune into 21 News and check out my blog/social media next week for details.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
Weather For Weather Geeks October 31
https://youtu.be/rg61NezVvTg
Monday (10/31) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING AND HAPPY HALLOWEEN!
We are wrapping up another warm month today, one that will end up about 5.5 degrees above average locally. Much of the lower 48 states had a warm October:
A nice Halloween today with high temperatures betwen 53-55. Lower 50s and upper 40s for trick-or-treaters this evening.
Another shot of unseasonably warm air is in the way as we start November. Check out these highs over the next couple of days:Click to Enlarge
We will be dry both days.
NEXT RAIN CHANCE
No raindrops until very late Wednesday night into parts of Thursday with our next cold front. That front will put an end to the silly early November warmth.
Quiet weather will return for Friday and the weekend. No concerns for wet weather as of now.
The air mass behind the front will be cooler but certainly not much colder than average. Highs Friday through the weekend may even be somewhat warmer than shown on both of these models.
Notice the chilly numbers that show up in the longer range. We are expecting the overall weather pattern to start favoring colder air over warmer air as we head deeper into November. Notice how different the pattern looks now vs what we expect in 2 weeks:
No big deal, right? It's SUPPOSED to get cold in November. Well yes. However there is a chance that BEYOND two weeks from now the pattern turns MUCH colder and stormier. Our winter forecast will include a potentially stormy, cold period from Thanksgiving through New Year's. Speaking of which.....
WINTER FORECAST
This is the week! My Winter 2016-2017 forecast will likely debut on Thursday. Tune into 21 News and check out my blog/social media next week for details.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
Weather For Weather Geeks October 27
https://youtu.be/toQSismqFxc
Thursday (10/27) Morning Weather Briefing
MORNING!
A gloomy start to the day across the Valley but we are about done with the wettest part of the day. At least we are not shoveling it! Snow is falling this morning in New York and NE Pennsylvania.
Our hi-res futurecast shows the rain becoming hit/miss showers for the rest of the day:
Hourly rain chances:
Temperatures will peak in the mid 50s at midday then slowly fall with a gusty NW wind this afternoon.
Friday looks much better with increasing amounts of sunshine. Great afternoon to rake some leaves and a cool, crip evening for high school football.
THE WEEKEND
Here comes the warmth! Saturday looks downright balmy with highs in the upper 60s and a gusty wind. Not much more than a passing afternoon shower.
On Sunday, a very weak front will slowly sag south, leading to a chance for showers.
HALLOWEEN
Nothing scary about this forecast. A good deal of sun and seasonable temperatures expected.
Then, WOW a warm day Tuesday. I think we have a good chance at highs of 70-74 degrees. Break out the shorts on November 1!
LONG RANGE
Back to seasonable weather later next week.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WINTER FORECAST
We are less than a week away from the issuance of my Winter 2016-2017 forecast. Tune into 21 News and check out my blog/social media next week.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!
CONNECT:
Weather For Weather Geeks October 26
https://youtu.be/_okdNaGT-d4