Weather For Weather Geeks December 7
https://youtu.be/bEO0ByRrvfM
BLOG: COLD, STORMS, RUMORS OF STORMS
Part of our winter forecast was the mantra that this December would be much different than December of 2015 and that, compared to average, December might be the coldest month of the season (December-February). That idea is coming to fruition now and the next 10 days or so could be quite interesting! Let's dive in!
ARCTIC ATTACK #1
For much of October and November, the true arctic air sat on the other side of the pole. It was amazingly cold in Siberia (even for their standards) while North America was a "blow torch". That has changed recently, as the arctic air has finally made it into Canada and the western United States. Lots of cold on the map this morning:
After a petty nice day today, the leading edge of this arctic air mass will arrive here tomorrow. A blustery and cold Thursday with temperatures no higher than about freezing and wind chills in the 20s.Highs:
Lake-effect snow will get going in NW PA and SW NY Thursday but won't really impact our area until late Thursday night and Friday as the wind shifts to more of a northwesterly direction. This will be a lake-effect bonanza from Erie to just south of Buffalo. Check out the NWS forecast through Friday: 2 feet or more in SW NY. Yikes.
Here in the Valley, I think the snow showers will fall more into the "nuisance" category Friday with some places north of I-80 getting a handful of inches of snow and just about no accumulation expected south of 224.
CONFIDENCE IN FRIDAY SNOW FORECAST: MEDIUM HIGH
That said, even in areas that won't pick up much accumulation, watch for slick travel at times Friday into Friday night. Snow showers and squalls can reduce visibility quickly.The wind will whip Friday with wind chills never making it above 20 or so.
SATURDAY: A BREAK (BUT COLD!)
The lake-effect snow machine will shut down Saturday and the wind will not be as problematic. Cold at Stambaugh Stadium Saturday afternoon with temperatures no higher than about 29-30.
SUNDAY'S SNOW THREAT
Confidence is growing that a "warm advection" snow event will occur Sunday. Basically that means warmer air will be gliding up over colder air, causing rising air and precipitation. This has the potential to be a 1-3"-ish type of snow.
CONFIDENCE IN SUNDAY SNOW: MEDIUM
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: "BONUS" SNOW??
A cold front will cross the region in the Sunday-night/Monday time frame. A big question right now is: will the front come through "clean" or will a wave of low pressure form along the front, slowing it down and producing another wave of snow?The operational European model has been advertising this idea for a couple of days now. A handful of members of the European ensemble model show this as well:
Other models have no such wave and thus no "bonus" snow. For example, the GFS just has some "ho hum" snow flurries and snow showers Monday morning:
Will not dismiss the European idea because, well it's a better model, but it's on it's own right now. So:
CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: LOW
NEXT WEEK: RELEASE THE ARCTIC HOUNDS!
This week's release of arctic air into the US looks like an appetizer compared to next week's cold shot. Temperature animation of Monday-Saturday (GFS model)
Of course it will be much colder to our northwest, but still this has the potential to produce a couple of days of highs near 20 and single digit lows. Temperatures compared to average next Thursday:
European model:
CONFIDENCE IN HARSH COLD LATE NEXT WEEK: HIGH
WARM UP FOR CHRISTMAS?
After that second polar plunge, there are signals that it will turn milder as we get closer to Christmas. But I would not guarantee something like that this far out. European model shows the cold retreating by December 21:
The CFS climate model has a mild signal for much of the country right before the holiday:
CONFIDENCE IN WARMER PATTERN FOR CHRISTMAS: LOW-MEDIUM
Stay tuned.
Weather For Weather Geeks December 6
https://youtu.be/Nfr4NbvgLEQ
Tuesday (12/6) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Rain is on the way, right on schedule. Here's what the radar looked like at 9:15am:
Hi-res futurecast:
A wet and cold afternoon. No longer all that concerned about sleet/wet snow mixing in. A few pellets possible but no big deal. Hourly rain chances:
Rain totals around 1/2 inch today.
Behind this system, a nicer day tomorrow with some breaks of sunshine for the afternoon.
ARCTIC PLUNGE #1
The coldest air of the season so far is still on track for late this week. Record cold? Unusual for December? No and no. But it will be windy and cold, yes.Wind chills Friday morning:
Snow showers will be most prevelant Thursday night and Friday and of couse will be mainly aimed at the primary snowbelt. Still think it's possible that there are modest accumulations in northern Trumbull and Mercer. Stay tuned.
By the start of the weekend, the lake-effect will be winding down and we should see some intervals of sunshine for the YSU game Saturday afternoon. Still cold though! Highs near 30.
Sunday could be complicated. Possibly Monday too. Very low confidence in the forecast at the moment but precipitation in some form(s) seems likely. Mostly rain? Mostly snow? Not sure yet. Again, stay tuned.
ARCTIC PLUNGE #2
An even colder air mass seems likely to visit during the 2nd half of nbext week. Gonna be a busy December!
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
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Weather For Weather Geeks December 5
https://youtu.be/Ygk3JC72p0U
Monday (12/5) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Cloud Season continues on this Monday although the sky MAY brighten a touch this afternoon.
Temperatures will be held mainly in the 30s once again today.
TUESDAY'S RAIN
Low pressure will track toward the region on Tuesday, resulting in a chilly rain starting between 9-11am.
Notice this computer model is showing all rain for us but I would not be surprised to see a few wet snowflakes and/or sleep pellets mixed in with the rain, especially when the rain is falling a little harder.
Rain totals Tuesday will average 1/3 of an inch or so.
After a calm Wednesday.....
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
We've been talking about this for over a week and it will finally arrive later this week. This will not be record-setting cold and won't be unusual for December. But it is the coldest air of the season so far and the kind of air mass that NEVER arrived during last year's record warm December.Snow showers and harsh winds Thursday and Friday.
Snow will of course be most problematic in the primary snow belts downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario.
Still, I would not be surprised if some need a shovel north of I-80 in our veiwing area.Wind chills Friday no higher than the teens.
Still cold Saturday but the snow showers should be less numerous.
Temperatures are likely to recover early next week before the next cold front arrives.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
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Weather For Weather Geeks December 2
https://youtu.be/U6y5YQQSJkM
Weather For Weather Geeks December 1
https://youtu.be/D0sMtXvV3zk
Thursday (12/1) Morning Weather Briefing
WELCOME TO DECEMBER!
Meteorological Winter begins today. Autumn was a warm one for the Valley, one of the warmest on record. In fact, we have had back-to-back warm Autumn seasons.
December is our cloudiest month and of course it is the month with the least daylight. Here;s the Sun table for the month:
We'll lose another 12-13 minutes of daylight before the days start getting "longer".Today's weather will be "eh". Lots of clouds, cold winds and perhaps a sprinkle or flurry. Temperatures only rising a couple of degrees into the upper 30s.
Tomorrow? Pretty similar. A somewhat better chance for flurries, especially late in the day and north of I-80.
Saturday? You guessed it. Blustery and chilly with clouds and a flurry. Highs near 40.Between now and Saturday, the snow belt and NW PA and SW New York can pick up some modest snow accumulation.
We can see a little sunshine Sunday morning before clouds roll back in. There will be a weak disturbance that may try to give us a coating of snow late Sunday and Sunday night.
NEXT WEEK
After a quiet Monday, rain is likely Tuesday.
Then, the much-advertised shot of arctic air is set to arrive at the end of the week. The cold front will probably roll through Thursday. By Friday, wind chills could look like this:
Single digits. Winter will have arrived.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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Wednesday (11/30) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
We had another round of rain overnight and early this morning with modest totals once again:
The big picture shows the steady rain pushing east. Severe weather continues in parts of the Deep South this morning:
I think we will see spotty showers for the rest of the daylight hours today; much of the time will be rain-free. Rain chances go up again this evening along the cold front. Simulated radar:
It is fitting that a mild November will end on a balmy note today with highs near 60. We certainly were not alone in the "warm November" club:
Behind the front, December will start as Decembers often do in our part of the country: CLOUDY. This is our cloudiest time of the year. There may be a stray flurry or sprinkle Thursday. Temperatures will hold in the lower 40s with wind chills near freezing.
Friday will be similar with perhaps a better chance for flurries.
The flow will be somewhat favorable for a few lake-effect bands to get going, and this will be mainly an issue for NW PA.
THE WEEKEND
Saturday looks...surprise! Cloudy, brisk and cold. There can still be random flurries around.
Sunday may start with some sunshine but clouds will increase again. There is a chance for light precipitation, perhaps a rain/snow mix, toward the end of the day and into Sunday night.
NEXT WEEK
A wild week. Temperatures will warm early in the week but a true arctic air mass will slide across the country by midweek. This much colder air should arrive here by the end of next week. The clash of the air masses may spin up a good snow storm for the Midwest. This is 8 days away, but here's one idea of what next Thursday's air mass may look like:
Behind that front, the coldest air of the season is very likely.
December forecast calls for an "average" month which is actually quite a change compared to last December and most of 2016!
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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Weather For Weather Geeks November 29
https://youtu.be/Sa_H-PEU7jE
Tuesday (11/29) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Last night's rain has come and gone and the radar is quiet this morning. It will stay that way all day.
Rain totals were pretty modest last night, generally under a quarter of an inch.
With a mix of sunshine and clouds, we expect a nice day today. Temperatures will be dependent on how much sunshine there is. Enough sun and it can get into the low 60s in spots.
Round #2 of rain is on the way for late tonight and tomorrow morning. Wet at the bus stop Wednesday:
By the afternoon the rain should be much more "hit or miss" but the threat of at least a spotty shower will remain in the forecast.
DECEMBER STARTS WITH COOL DOWN
Cloudy and uneventful weather can be expected for the first day of the new month. It will be blustery and colder with temperatures holding about steady in the lower 40s.
A weak disturbance could bring very spotty rain or wet snow showers Friday. Highs near 40.
The weekend looks similar.
LONG RANGE
Notice the cold air shown on the model for the end of next week into next weekend.
A true arctic air mass will invade the US for the first time this season next week (purple color). It will arrive in the Northwest and then ooze east. Looks like a cold few days for us but nothing earth-shattering for December.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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Weather For Weather Geeks November 29
https://youtu.be/gz_T7ft3Pp8
Monday (11/28) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING AND HAPPY MONDAY
A cold and frosty start this morning as the sky was clear for a large part of the night. Now clouds have rolled in. A more comfortable day today despite the clouds. A breezy afternoon on the way with highs in the lower 50s.
Notice the rain off to our west this morning:
Looks ominous but it's fighting dry air across the region. Check out the low dewpoints:
As the rain pushed north and east I expect most of it to get eaten up by the dry air. A sprinkle or light shower will be possible this afternoon but the more significant rain is much more likely after 7-8pm. Hi-res futurecast:
The rain is great news for the drought-stricken Southeast. What they don't want is the severe weather but that will be a threat later today in the lower Mississippi Valley:
We'll have a soggy night tonight but tomorrow...WOW will it turn nice! We'll flirt with the record high of 66, set in 2005.
REST OF THE WEEK: BACK TO REALITY
Rain is likely to return Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front.
Rain totals with the 2 rounds of rain: likely to be 0.75"-1.00".
Thursday and Friday will be colder and more seasonable as we welcome in December. Plenty of clouds and a rain/snow shower around. 
LONG RANGE
December may start seasonable but a colder air mass seems likely to invade during the 2nd week of the month.
The trend on the colimate models has been colder for December when compared to what they were advertising previously. I suspect we will end up with a near-average December...perhaps slightly colder than average. Model trend:
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
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Tuesday (11/22) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING.....
After a blustery and cold Monday, today will be a better day with more sunshine and less wind. Temperatures will still struggle. The farther north and east you go, the more clouds you will find today. The yellow color on this map shows a deck of low stratocumulus clouds:
Highs today will be 8-10 degrees below average.
Want snow? Head to New York. Downwind of Lake Ontario, between 3 and 4 feet of snow is on the ground in some places.
THANKSGIVING WEATHER
The busy day before Thanksgiving will feature increasing clouds. Rain may push in by around sunset but it's more likely after 7pm. At the onset of the precipitation there may be wet snowflakes or sleet pellets mixed in.
On the holiday, a fizzling low pressure system will meander through and there will be a deck of low clouds around all day. Out of these clouds there can be a touch of light rain or drizzle at times. Afternoon tempoeratures in the 40s.
Friday will not be any nicer looking and once again there can be a little rain in the area.
That low will intensify along the East Coast Saturday and the Valley will get into a chilly northwest flow. At this time of the year that typically means clouds and Saturday will be no exception. The chance for showers will continue.
Sunday looks dry and sunnier for those traveling at the end of the holiday weekend.
LONG RANGE
Looks unsettled next week but it should be warm enough for windy rain events.
We'll have the December forecast next week. Latest model trends suggest a stormy month with frequent precipitation. While there will certainly be some cold days, the month should not be far below (or above) average. Much colder than last year!
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
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Weather For Weather Geeks November 21
https://youtu.be/57llZci0b2U
Monday (11/21) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
The weekend has come and gone and the unseasonable warmth is LONG gone. What a change. The snow forecast that we issued on Thursday worked out pretty well.Forecast:
Current snow depth (approximate):
The weather map this morning sure looks like winter. Cold temperatures and a frigid wind.
Temperatures will only move a few degrees today. A stray flurry; otherwise, cloudy, blustery and cold.
THANKSGIVING WEATHER
A calm day Tuesday with clouds breaking for some sun. Still chilly with highs near 40 but not as windy.
Wednesday is tradionally one of the busiest travel days of the year. Locally, we expect some rain to push in by the end of the day. While there is an outside chance for mixed precipitation at the onset, I am not expecting travel problems across our region (other than wet pavement).
On Thanksgiving Day, expect a cloudy and chilly day and there might be a rain shower. Temperatures in the 40s. 
Shopping Thursday night into Friday? Looks quiet weatherwise with dry, cool donditions Friday morning and maybe some rain showers by afternoon.
Another busy day on the roads and at airports Sunday. Looks quiet weatherwise.
LONG RANGE
Late November and early December looks seasonably chilly and I think it will be an active weather pattern. Does that mean lots of snow? Only if the temperatures are right. Could mean plenty of chilly rains. We shall see.
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
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Weather For Weather Geeks November 17
https://youtu.be/Ge7bOQvMaxQ
Weather For Weather Geeks November 16
https://youtu.be/M0ibzlnvE_0
Wednesday (11/16) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
LOTS to talk about again today. Let's get to it. Remember you will get another very detailed update this evening on Weather For Weather Geeks.Today won't be quite as nice as the last couple of days, but hey it's still warmer than average! There were a couple of showers/sprinkles early today but those are pulling east. Clouds will occasionally part for some sunshine today.
Thursday will probably start with a deck of low clouds and/or fog but the afternoon will be sensational with sunshine and temperatures in the lower 60s.
Friday: Amazing. The record is 72, set in 1958 and we may come within a couple of degrees of that. The afternoon will also be breezy to at times windy.
NOW THE EXCITING STUFF
Ok, the weekend. What a wild ride this will be. Our cold front will cross the Valley by midday Saturday and temperatures will start to fall off a cliff. Rain showers will be around for a while but I think it is cold enough for a changeover to snow showers by late afternoon or early evening.
Strong winds and lake-effect/lake-enhanced snow showers will continue Saturday night into Sunday. There will be extreme instability over the lakes with the cold air blowing over the warm waters.
IMPACTS
It is too early for an accumulation forecast. Let's focus on the likely IMPACTS instead of numbers at this stage of the game.
1) Harsh wind and cold. Just like if it were January, use common sense; don't keep the pets out too long, etc.
2) Travel. Despite the ground being very warm, the snow can and WILL stick, especially in heavy squalls.
The snow will have no trouble sticking to the grass/roofs, decks, etc. During the daylight hours, it will have to be coming down HARD to stick to the roads. But at night, even more benign snow showers can stick to the pavement. Even in snow showers that do not cause much accumulation on the roads, the visibility can suddenly drop so take it slow.
3) School. I doubt there will be any school adjustments Monday but it's early in the game so stay tuned.
A general guideline of what to expect:
NEXT WEEK
Think there will be another system heading our way around Thanksgiving time but I suspect it will only bring some chilly rain. Not expecting wintry weather for holiday travel.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
WINTER FORECAST
My annual Winter Forecast can be watched here:https://ericwfmj.com/2016/11/03/2016-2017-winter-forecast/
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook?? We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made. This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region. Fill out this form if interested!Storm Tracker 21 Spotter Sign Up Sheet
21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP
Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!