Weather For Weather Geeks January 4
https://youtu.be/cg8Z86chq8k
Wednesday (1/4) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Our cold front rolled though overnight and temperatures will keep gliding backward today. Arctic air is spilling east.
Wind chills will get pretty nasty today; by mid-afternoon they will be mostly in the lower teens.
Lake-effect snow will set up east of Cleveland today into tonight but the wind direction will not be favorable for many of the bands to work their way south. Still, a small accumulation will be possible from Mespo to Greenville...but no farther south.
THURSDAY'S "SNEAKY" SNOW
A system will spread light snows into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. The "bullseye" of a few inches or so is likely to be southern Ohio into eastern Kentucky and West Virginia, as shown on this map (showing odds of 1" or more):
BUT I am concerned that some light snow will creep farther north and give the WFMJ viewing area a small accumulation in the afternoon and evening hours. The NAM Model depicts this:
Often you hear us talk about a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio (so 10" snow=1" of rain). That's a decent rule of thumb but reality is often different. In this arctic air mass the ratios will be more like 20:1 or even 25:1, meaning that it's "easier" to get accumulating snow even when there isn't much moisture to squeeze out of the atmosphere.
So, I am concerned about an inch or so of snow causing slick travel for the evening rush tomorrow. the short range ensemble (SREF for short) model suggests a couple of inches is possible. The average of all 21 flavors of the model is about 2.8".
So, stay tuned on this one. Often it's these kind of events that lead to the most travel issues.
COLD BUT QUIET
The Friday-Sunday time frame will be frigid with highs near 20 but generally quiet otherwise. Saturday will be a problem for parts of the Southeast but that storm is a miss for us.
We could see flurries and snow showers Sunday. Quite windy and cold!
LONG RANGE: BLOW TORCH!
As I have been talking about all week, the rest of January looks quite mild. The turnaround starts next week:
The 10-20 period is a full-on blowtorch.
Our winter forecast's top "analog" year was 2005-2006. What happened in January 2006? TORCH!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
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Tuesday (1/3) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
After a damp and drizzly day Monday, today's rain is certainly more substantial. Already 0.25-0.50" as of 9am and the rain will continue through this afternoon. 9am radar:
Local totals so far:
18 hour futurecast:
At least it is mild! Highs today in the mid and upper 40s.
BIG CHANGES!
Arctic air is on the move across the country this morning.
Temperatures will fall late tonight and keep falling during the day tomorrow. The wind will howl and it will feel like January, that's for sure.
Wind chills probably no higher than the lower teens in the afternoon; single digits by evening.
Flurries around but we are not expecting accumulating snow Wednesday.On Thursday, a weak, fast-moving system will track our way and we may pick up a coating to an inch or so of fluffy snow during the afternoon and evening. I will have more on this later today.
WEEKEND STORM: A MISS TO SOUTH
It appears that we will dodge a winter storm that will bring accumulating snow and ice to parts of the Southeast. Our weekend looks pretty tranquil and cold.
LONG RANGE
Big pattern change ahead for next week and beyond. After a frigid stretch, milder days are ahead. Our January forecast calls for a warmer-than-average month.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
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Weather For Weather Geeks January 2
https://youtu.be/ISEFJJXoTIc
Monday (1/2/17) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Hope your weekend was a good one. Many are still off today and it is a good day to catch up on indoor projects/sleeping/watching football. It will be one of those "deceptive radar" days, where little or nothing is showing up on the radar but it is raining a little.
A little rain or drizzle is likely at times today; often the radar does not "see" the rain because it is falling out of low clouds that are below the radar beam. Meteorologists rely on many tools to predict the weather; one of them is an atmospheric "sounding", or a vertical snapshot of the wind, moisture and temperatures as you go up through the atmosphere. With the temperature and dewpoint nearly the same in the lowest 5,000 feet today, that's nearly 100% humidity over a pretty good vertical distance and the result will be a damp, gray day.
At least it's turning mild! Highs today in the 40s.
Meanwhile, it's a stormy morning in Texas and there is a significant (especially for January) severe weather risk in the Deep South today. 
WET AND MILD TUESDAY
Tuesday will be another wet one, with steadier, somewhat heavier rain than today...especialy before lunchtime.
Rain totals may average a 1/2" or so late tonight into Tuesday.
BUT temperatures will be quite balmy
RETURN OF THE ARCTIC AIR
Arctic air will blast back into Ohio and PA later this week, starting Wednesday. It will be accompanied by some gusty winds and snow flurries. 
Temperatures: Ouch. 
WATCHING WEEKEND SYSTEM
A lot of intrigue on the models in regards to a system that may or may not impact parts of the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. Right now I think that it's unlikely to produce big snows around here; it is likely to be a total miss or we'll just be on the fringes. Current GFS model for Saturday:
Could be quite a problem for the Carolinas if this idea is right. We rely heavily on model "ensembles" in the ling range, especially when there is a lot of uncertainty. Out of the 21 "members" of the GFS Ensemble, only a couple suggest any high impacts for eastern OH and western PA. Other models also mostly show a "miss" for us. Stay tuned.
LONG RANGE: COLD REPLACED BY JANUARY THAW
After a cold period late this week into the weekend, there is a strong signal on all the modeling that mid-January will not be that cold...in fact it may be quite mild. This is consistent with our winter forecast which talked about January being milder than December (relative to average).
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
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Blog: 2016 Weather in Youngstown Area
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Before 2017 gets into full swing, I thought I would take a moment to review 2016 weather for the Valley. Let's go!
2016: A WARM YEAR
Probably the #1 weather story for year was the consistent WARMTH. Only 2 months were colder than average (and neither was by much). That's a remarkable run from May-November.
A look at temperatures for entire year (click to enlarge).
Daily records highs were set on:February 3February 20 (tie)February 28March 9March 24November 18 (tie)December 26 (tie)Interesting that we did not set or even tie any records between March 24 and November 18. It was consistently warm but not crazy warm.How did 2016 compare to recent years? Not quite as warm as 2012: 
The summer was consistently very warm but notice 90 degree days were below average again. LOTS of 85-89 degree days over the summer. 
Air conditioners were busy with the warm days and steamy nights.
FROM DROUGHT TO SURPLUS
A big weather story in the Spring and early Summer was the lack of rain. The drought was never severe by any stretch but things browned up for a while. It was a big change from 2015.
Mid to late Summer was wetter and the year was wetter-than-average overall. This counts rain and the liquid equivalent of snow we got.
In October, we had one of the wettest days on record in Youngstown:
LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER
We of course had thunderstorms and occasional hail and damaging winds but overall it was a below-average season for severe weather. There were NO confirmed tornadoes in our viewing area in 2016. The nearest ones were in Butler County, PA (red dots): 
DECEMBER: NOT LIKE 2015!
The end of 2016 finally brought some cold weather to the Valley. It was one of the snowiest Decembers on record with over 23" at the airport. Compare that to 2015 when we had the warmest December on record! 
JANUARY 1 STATS
Finally, some fun stats about New Year's Day weather. This year: nice day with some sunshine; highs in the 30s.
Video version of the year in review: https://ericwfmj.com/2016/12/30/weather-for-weather-geeks-2016-review-january-preview/
Weather For Weather Geeks: 2016 Review; January Preview
https://youtu.be/mRBMU7zH81g
Thursday (12/29) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING TO YA....
Last night's snow, as expected, was pretty "ho hum" with just some dustings for most locations. That precipitation has pushed east this morning:
Now we await the lake-effect to set up. It will take a while. The arctic air has not arrived yet:
Temperatures today will hold nearly steady in the mid 30s.
The lake-effect will get going this evening and during the overnight. Here's the hi-res "futurecast" depiction:
Notice the ramp-up of activity near the end of the loop.Lake-effect snow will continue overnight into Friday morning and wind down Friday afternoon and evening.
Lake-Effect Snow Advisory is up for Mercer County, where the highest amounts could be up around 6" or so (northern part of county).
Our snow map, which I will be tweaking a little this afternoon:
No matter how much snow you see Friday, everyone will share in the wind and cold. Brrrrr.
THE WEEKEND (HAPPY NEW YEAR!)
Another quick-hitting system will track our way Saturday and the result could be similar to what we just saw last night: a low-impact wet snow/mix event. Think that things will just be damp on the roads for your New Year's Eve plans. Temperatures in the 30s.
New Year's Day looks tranquil with mixed sun and clouds.
NEXT WEEK: UP THEN DOWN
An early week warm spell (mid/upper 50s Tuesday!) will be followed by a much colder pattern for the 2nd half of next week and next weekend.
The cold will actually encompass nearly the entire Lower 48. Only south Florida escapes!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
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Weather For Weather Geeks December 28
https://youtu.be/DIDMiKM2_Gs
Wednesday (12/28) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING.....
Off to a cloudy and quiet start across the Valley this morning. BUT, there is clearing to our southwest and I expect that clearing to get in here as we get into the midday and afternoon hours.
Highs today will be a few degrees above average.
A cold front will approach late tonight and it will bring some precipitation with it. The question is: what kind? This can be just wet snow for some and for many, a mix of rain and snow. If it stays mostly or all snow in your location, you may see a fresh inch by daybreak Thursday.
Much of the rest of Thursday will be fairly uneventful with flurries around. Lake-effect snow will set up and get more organized by Thursday night and Friday. A windy, cold day Friday. Wind chills no better than the lower teens:
Snow will accumulate most efficiently in the primary snowbelts of OH, PA and NY. In our viewing area, northern Trumbull and a large chunk of Mercer County have the best chance of seeing enough snow to shovel and plow. NWS snow forecast (numbers probably too high south of I-80 in my opinion):
HOLIDAY WEEKEND
The cold will ease quickly for Saturday and temperatures will get back into the mid 30s. There is a chance for light mixed precipitation late in the day but I don't think it will be impactful.
Temperature at midnight: around 30.
New Year's Day will be pretty quiet; a small chance for rain late in the day.
Rain showers and warmer temperatures likely early next week.
LONG RANGE
A blob of cold air will cover much of the country late next week into next weekend. Looks like January.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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Weather For Weather Geeks December 27
https://youtu.be/WRE2ofh1ir0
Tuesday (12/27) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING!
Hope you had a great Christmas! I enjoyed some time off but am back in the hot seat today. Last night's cold front brought gusty showers to the Valley; here are some local rainfall totals:
Before the front rolled through we TIED the record high for December 26 of 64 degrees.That front is now well east and today will be a much more typical late December day. Temperatures will hold nearly steady in the 30s. Although there was some sunshine to start, the clouds to our north and west (white-grey color) will take over by lunchtime.
NEXT SNOW CHANCES
Winter weather will make a (fairly brief) comeback late this week. Wednesday will be a tranquil day with some sunshine:
The next arctic front is expected to sweep through early Thursday. This can be accompanied by a band of snow; a coating to an inch or so is possible by mid-morning Thursday.
After a break Thursday afternoon, snow showers and squalls will get going off the lakes Thursday night and Friday. This will result in sizable accumulations in the primary snow belts of Ohio, PA and New York. In our viewing area, I'd expect at least a few inches in many places north of I-80 and especially around and north of Rt 87. South of those locales, local accumulations of an inch to two or three will be possible.
Notice how windy that map looks with the isobars packed together. Temperatures will hold in the 20s Friday and the wind chill should be no higher than the teens.
NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND
Forecast details are a little tough this morning but at this point I am not expecting any MAJOR weather issues for the weekend. The GFS tries to bring in a little wet snow Saturday afternoon (shown) and evening but not sure I buy that.
On January 1 there is a chance for a little precipitation, probably late in the day....more than likely rain, not snow.
LONG RANGE
A warmup early next week but the pattern looks to turn colder for a while starting around midweek. 
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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Weather For Weather Geeks December 19
https://youtu.be/7hlSWzGgwHk
Weather For Weather Geeks December 15
https://youtu.be/AW2SIK2qgzw
Weather For Weather Geeks December 14
https://youtu.be/Qip920n0gWg
Blog: Wintry Assault Continues: Harsh Cold, Snow
GOOD MORNING..
We told you in our Winter Forecast that December would be MUCH different than December 2015 and that is certainly panning out. Winter is going to continue to pummel us for a few more days until the pattern relaxes early next week.
WIND CHILLS
Very cold air has already settled into the region this morning, with temperatures particularly frigid to our west.
Temperatures will only make it into the lower 20s today with wind chills in the lower teens much of the time. But the REAL arctic air is on the way tonight through Friday. By tomorrow morning the wind will be howling and air temperatures will be in the single digits in most spots. Wind chills? Yuck.
This is the kind of cold in which we (for reasons beyond understanding) have to remind people to bring their pets in. You'd think it is common sense, but......Count on plenty of school adjustments Thursday morning. We don't make that call and I am often surprised at what school districts decide to do but this seems like a no brainer.The unusual December cold is thans to a pattern that has allowed a lobe of the (cue ominous music) POLAR VORTEX to come much farther south than it's usual home (the, well, polar regions).
Wind chills Friday morning will not be as harsh, generally 2 to 7 below...probably still enough to cause delays. Air temperatures? 0 to 4 above.
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
With all this arctic air going over the Great Lakes, you know there will be a healthy amount of lake-effect snow. It will get going tonight and continue into early tomorrow night.
Of course the highest amounts will be in the primary snow belt but several inches is likely in parts of Trumbull and Mercer counties.
"GENERAL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT"
A strong warm front will approach Friday night and we expect snow to break out before midnight. At first, this will be "high ratio" snow, perhaps a 20:1 liquid to snow ratio (instead of typical 12:1 or 10:1). This will translate into the snow accumulating quickly during the first several hours of snowfall. It will get "wetter" by early Saturday morning.
When true arctic air is dislodged it is usually a bumpy ride and there may be a period of freezing rain/mixed precipitation around daybreak Saturday.Thankfully a transition to "plain" rain will occur as temperatures warm into the 40s.
How much snow? I think this will easily be enough to shovel and plow. 
Thinking 3-5" is fairly likely.
We'll have ONE MORE arctic blast behind this system for Sunday night/Monday before a milder pattern takes hold. That milder pattern is likely to last through Christmas and even into the New Year.
Weather For Weather Geeks December 13
https://youtu.be/etXMg-RYvk8
Weather For Weather Geeks December 12
https://youtu.be/yAnQbTVZQDQ
Monday (12/12) Morning Weather Briefing
GOOD MORNING! WINTER IS, UH, HERE.
More 2 hour delays than I thought there would be this morning as the mixing/changeover did not occur as fast or as far north as most computer models advertised....and the side roads remained a problem. Main roads are (generally) fine, just wet.Temperatures are going to flatline for a while this morning before slowly falling. The first of a few cold fronts is on the way. Oof look at that cold in the Upper Midwest this morning.
Not much more than a flurry or two for the rest of the day.
TUESDAY PM NUISENCE
A little moisture will meet up with the nest cold front Tuesday afternoon, resulting in some light snow breaking out after lunch. This won't add up to much but could lead to slick spots, mainly after sunset.
NWS has an inch or less for accumulation and I think that's right...but remember the IMPACTS are more important. And the impacts of a "little" snow at the wrong time of day can be significant.
INTO THE DEEP FREEZE
The coldest December weather we have seen in YEARS is on the way for the second half of the work week. The polar plunge will really take place Wednesday night into Thursday behind the NEXT cold front.
Thursday will really be hideous. Look at those isobars packed together. Will be very windy and snow showers will fly. We'll worry about lake-effect snow potential as we get closer. Higher impacts will probably come from the wind and cold. Thursday morning wind chills:
Wind chills will syat below zero all day. ACTUAL temperatures? Probably no higher than the lower teens. This will probably be our coldest December day in 8 or 12 years (and that 2004 temperature was at Christmas).
Friday will be bitterly cold but not as windy.
A DIFFERENT PATTERN
The arctic cold will be displaced by much warmer air Saturday but the transition could be bumpy. We may see a snow accumulation Friday night followed by mixed precipitation/ice early Saturday. Then rain as temperatures get above freezing. More on this as we get closer.
As we get closer to Christmas, a generally mild-ish pattern seems likely. We have been advertising this for a while. White Christmas odds seem low at the moment. 
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.
STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS
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Weather For Weather Geeks December 8
https://youtu.be/1tmGP0KtpIU