Severe Weather Awareness Week in Ohio

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SPRING is here at last! The days are getting longer, average high and low temperatures are rising quickly and soon(ish) things will be in full bloom across northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The changing of the seasons is also characterized but an increased risk of thunderstorms. While many thunderstorms are "run of the mill" with some briefly heavy rain and vivid lightning some are "severe"; these storms have a higher likelihood of producing damaging winds, impactful hail and even tornadoes.This week is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Ohio, the week we like to remind everyone to be Weather Aware....be informed and have a plan if and when severe weather strikes.For more information: http://www.weathersafety.ohio.gov/

WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AND A SEVERE ONE?

While many thunderstorms are dark and scary and loud, only some reach the threshold of being "severe". It is important to note that ALL thunderstorms are dangerous. Even a "weak" storm can generate a lightning bolt that causes damage to life and property. Somewhat ironically, a thunderstorms is not determined to be "severe" by two of the more impactful aspects of a storm: lightning and rain.  It's wind, hail and the possible presence of a tornado.Meteorologists warn of a severe thunderstorm and/or a tornado by issuing a Warning. The "official" warnings are generated by meteorologists at the National Weather Service. In our area, The NWS in Cleveland serves Mahoning and Trumbull counties while NWS Pittsburgh serves Columbiana, Lawrence and Mercer counties.One of the point of confusion among some is the difference between a watch and a warning.Another way of looking at it:

FLOODING: AN UNDERRATED RISK

Tornadoes get all the buzz, but the #1 most impactful type of weather hazard in the Spring and Summer is rain and flooding.  Year after year the weather enterprise preaches "turn around, don't drown" but invariably we see dozens of clips each year of cars submerged in water. It takes a surprisingly small amount of moving water to carry away even the largest of vehicles.A friendly reminder that the law requires you to have your headlights on if it is precipitating hard enough that your wipers are in use.

OH, HAIL NO

Hail can be very dangerous. Thankfully in our part of the country very large hail is rare. But hail large enough to cause damage (usually 1" or larger) can and will occur occasionally.

LET'S TALK TORNADOES

Tornadoes are, thankfully, rare in our region but they are still the type of severe weather that gets all the buzz.They may be rare but of course they do happen! This map shows all the tornadoes across the region from 1950-2014.Interesting to note some of the patterns on this map. There has been a lack of tornadoes in southeast Columbiana County, for example.A breakdown of tornado stats by state. Of course tornadoes are more common in western Ohio than eastern Ohio. Pennsylvania averages somewhat fewer tornadoes, partly owing to the mountainous interior of the state.

STAYING SAFE

It is important for every household to have a plan in case severe weather (and especially) a tornado strikes. Get to the lowest level of your home and (very important!) get away from windows. Flying glass injures or kills many people.Some other good information from weathersafety.ohio.gov:

TORNADO MYTHS

All types of weather come with myths and old wive's tales. All of us grew up thinking certain things because a grandma or uncle told us it was true. Many of these "nuggets" simply are not true, however and some could even put you in grave danger. A few tornado myths:Another weather myth, one that is decidedly more harmless than tornado myths is "heat lightning". Heat lightning is not a thing!

GETTING WARNED OF SEVERE WEATHER

One of the great things about living in 2017 is that the majority of the population now has little computers in the pockets. As annoying as some of the, um, habits associated with smartphone use are, they are great tools for gathering weather information and being warned of dangerous weather.Nearly all weather apps, including the StormTracker 21 weather app, come with the ability to "push" weather warnings to you when they are issued. Additionally, you can sign up for text alerts at wfmj.com to get automatically texted when the NWS issues a warning.Weather radios are inexpensive, easy to program and a VERY reliable way to receive weather warnings. You can find many great ones online and at many retail stores that sell electronics.One of the LEAST effective methods of being warned, but one that many people still cling to, is a TORNADO SIREN. There are many, many problems with sirens.  It can be argued that they do more harm than good.

WFMJ SEVERE WEATHER POLICY

#1 on the list of job responsibilities of any meteorologist, whether he/she is on TV or not, is the protection of lives and property. We will stop at nothing, including interrupting your favorite show, to help someone be safe. Our general policy when it comes to preempting programming is similar to nearly all television stations across the country. If a Tornado Warning is issued for a part of our viewing area, we are going to be on TV warning about it.Of course, we won't just be on TV. Another great thing about living in the digital age is the ability to reach people instantly via social media, streaming video, Facebook Live, etc.Inevitably if we interrupt programming, some who are not being impacted by the weather and just want to watch their show will complain. We understand it can be frustrating but we are going to do it anyway. If even ONE life is spared by information they saw or heard us give on TV then it's absolutely worth it.We'll be talking more about severe weather safety, tips, statistics, etc all week on 21 News and our social media outlets.The statewide tornado drill is Wednesday at 9:50am.   

Blog: Any Signs of Spring?

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After a record-breaking February, boy have we seen a pattern reversal in the month of March. The month is halfway over so I thought I would take a moment to examine the numbers and talk about the upcoming weather pattern.The first half of March has been cold, but record cold? Not even close. In fact, it's been pretty "ordinary"...colder than average, yes but nowhere near the top of the list of coldest starts to March.What HAS been unusual is the amount of snow. The first half of the month featured the 2nd highest amount of snow on record for March 1-15.In fact, the first half of March has been snowier than JANUARY AND FEBRUARY COMBINED. Wow!How unusual is such a dramatic pattern flip from February to March? I looked back at the top 20 warmest Februarys on record in Youngstown (excluding #1, 2017) and only 5 times (25%) was the very warm February followed by a cold March. Most recently in 1999 and 2001. So, it's unusual but certainly not unheard of.Astronomical Spring begins on Monday (at 6:29am to be exact).So are there any signs of the pattern flipping to warmth like we had at the end of February??It seems unlikely through the end of March.  The European model keeps the cool shots coming with a northwest flow: The US Climate Model has a cool look as well.Keep in mind, averages are rising FAST at this time of the year. Our average high hits 50 in 9 days. So a "cool" day in late March is in the 40s.I DO think that we are done with the kind of severe cold we have had this week. It gets very hard to sustain this kind of cold as we get into late March. The sun is as strong now as it is in late September.

BLOG: UPDATE ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING SNOW

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A quick update this morning on a fairly minor (although impactful) snow event coming our way Thursday night into Friday morning.

THE SETUP

Cold, arctic air will be on the move across the northern Plains and Rockies and will run into a much warmer air mass to the south. An area of low pressure will ride along the boundary between those air masses and cause precipitation to break out here by early tomorrow evening.Temperatures locally will be in the mid 40s before the precipitation arrives tomorrow...and this will be important. The ground will be warm and it will take a while for snow to start sticking efficiently. More on that in a second.

TIMING

Precipitation will arrive between 4pm-7pm on average and will fall in the form of RAIN initially. Snow will start mixing in, first in the north then in southern areas, as we go deeper into the evening.Everyone will see a changeover to snow overnight. The snow will be heaviest and have the easiest time accumulating after midnight.The snow will taper to flurries Friday morning and midday.

ACCUMULATIONS

I think the graphic I showed last evening still works pretty well for much of the area. The highest odds are for an accumulation around 1.5"-2.0" but there is a chance for higher accumulations, especially in western PA.This is still a pretty tricky forecast. Our best-performing model (overall....even it does have bad days), the European, is less impressed with the snow. This makes me skeptical about the higher amounts shown on some of the other modeling.  The European is the purple line.It's March and will be quite mild before the snow arrives. Some of the liquid with this storm will be "wasted" on rain/mixing and snow falling with temperatures around 32-34. This can lead to lower snow amounts.  The one thing it has going for it is the snow is falling at night. If this came during the day, even with temperatures near freezing, hardly anything would stick on paved surfaces.

IMPACTS

Look for increasingly slick conditions late at night, mainly after midnight. I would expect some 2 hour school delays for some districts Friday morning. This snow will be MUCH different than the snow we had late last week. This will be much wetter, great for making snowballs but harder to shovel.

WINTER NOT OVER

The weekend storm will be a miss for us, but I have increasing confidence we will be impacted by snow early next week...probably Monday night into Tuesday.Meanwhile....enjoy the sunshine today but WIND is the story! Gusts to 50 mph later.

BLOG: STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS

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Good Monday morning......It's going to be a busy week of weather with winter and spring dooking it out. Pretty typical of March, actually. The week will start on a cloudy and mild note today. A warm front is crossing the region this morning and a few widely scattered showers/sprinkles are accompanying it.Click to EnlargeTemperatures will climb pretty easily into the lower and mid 50s today.Click to EnlargeAs strong low pressure tracks across the country over the next 12-18 hours, severe weather will become likely for parts of the Midwest. Thankfully that will not be a problem for us.Click to EnlargeThis simulated radar shows us getting wet tonight and tomorrow....free car wash time. Plan on a wet and windy Tuesday.Click to EnlargeRain totals are likely to average 0.50"-1.00" with this event.Click to EnlargeBehind the front, still quite mild and windy Wednesday with some sunshine.Click to Enlarge

WINTRY WEEKEND?

A classic springtime battle between warm and cold looks to set up very late this week and weekend. Very cold air will be trying to infiltrate the country from the north while at the same time unusually warm air will not be looking to leave the stage without a fight.Click to EnlargeThe result will be a storm, somewhere. Where? That is what we don't know just yet. Just know that the weekend will bring the chance for snow/ice/mixed precipitation. If everything came together just right it could be a significant storm. There are also scenarios on the table in which the cold air presses the storm so far south it essentially misses us.Pay careful attention to the forecast over the next several days! It's likely to be changeable.