FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Check out my September recap and October forecast HERETGIF! A chilly start this morning with temperatures well down into the 40s. This morning's weather map shows the epic rain event well underway in parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic:nowStill expecting a foot or more of rain in much of South Carolina.qpfBack here at home, a cool, breezy day today with highs in the upper 50s.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_1Will still be breezy this evening for high school football. Expect northeast winds at 10-20 mph.WINDTHE WEEKEND: Some of that moisture on the East Coast will back into the region late tonight and Saturday, leading to a chilly, raw and damp start to the weekend. The rain will probably be steadiest in the morning. 9am simulated radar: 9amBy 5pm, there may be a shower around but it will be much more "hit or miss":5pmA VERY chilly, breezy day with afternoon temperatures probably staying in the upper 40s!2pmtempsSunday will be MUCH nicer with some intervals of sun and highs in the mid 60s.NEXT WEEK: Back to a warmer-than-average pattern in the medium and long range. THe 5-10 day outlook shows a lack of true October chill in much of the country. Expect a lot of highs in the upper 60s and even 70s.510

BLOG: SEPTEMBER REVIEW AND OCTOBER FORECAST

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(Click images to enlarge)September is in the books and it was the 10th warmest September on record in Youngstown and the warmest in 54 years!septhistoryHow was our September forecast, made on September 1? Good locally and not as good in other parts of the country (to be fair, we don't look at other parts of the country as much as the Valley!)Temperature forecast and what actually happened:SEPTFORECAST SEPTTEMPANOMRain:SEPTRAINFORECASTSEPTRAINANOMIt was certainly drier than we expected locally, although the rain at the end of the month made up some of the deficit.WHAT ABOUT OCTOBER?We are expecting October to be a more "typical" month in both the temperature and precipitation departments. That said, if the month ends up drier than average it would not be shocking.OCTRAIN OCTTEMPSOctober is a month in which our averages drop very quickly. By the end of the month, average highs are in the mid 50s and lows are in the 30s:OCTALMWe typically see our first frost and freeze during October. Average date of the first freeze is in the middle of the month._firstfrostmap-lgIt can and certainly HAS snowed in October! It happened as recently as 2 years ago. Other years with measurable snow (more than a trace):SNOWOCTWhen is the earliest that we have picked up our first inch of snow? Here's the list of earliest dates:1STINCHOf course, not only is October a month in which is cools off quickly, it is also a month in which the amount of daylight changes significantly as well. We lose an hour and 18 minutes of daylight this month.OCTSUNThanks for reading!

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!Some beneficial rain across the region although some places in PA had a bit too much.2DAYSome leftover drizzle out there this morning; the balance of the day will just be cloudy, cool, breezy and less humid. Temperatures will only rise a couple of degrees today.This is a true Fall air mass sliding through the Midwest.8ATEMPSMeanwhile, Joaquin is now a hurricane. More on Joaquin in a minute. Current view of the storm:TROPSATTHURSDAY: An uneventful day for us with clouds, some sun and cool temperatures.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_2FRIDAY: This is when things get interesting for the East Coast and the Appalachians as tropical moisture gets thrown up and over a stalled front. Heavy rain will break out. For us, a pretty cloudy and cool day but not much more than a shower. We should be in decent shape for football Friday evening....just typical October chill.frievegfsWEEKEND: A wild and potentially dangerous situation for many to our east. Even if Joaquin does not make a landfall, soaking rains will lead to a big flood risk along the East Coast and back into the mountains.QPFThe current NHC cone for Joaquin is pretty wide, showing continued uncertainty.114425W_smThat said, the cone has shifted west since last night, reflecting the trends in the models. The GFS has a scary situation:SUNGFSWHAT ABOUT *OUR* WEATHER??Ok, back to what this means for us. Independent of what Joaquin may do, Saturday is likely to be a blustery, cold and rainy day. The rain is not likely to be heavy but....yick.SATGFSHighs might only be 50-54.On Sunday, the forecast is more dependent on what Joaquin does. If the GFS idea shown above is right, we may have a windy and rainy afternoon/evening/night. If Joaquin stays out to sea, we still may see showers but it would be less rain and wind.Stay tuned!

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Morning!We had some rain overnight but most of the region is in a break around 9:00 this morning. The afternoon and evening will be the wettest part of the day today.now15 hour futurecast:hrrr_2015092911_ref_clevelandWEDNESDAY: The slow-moving front will finally push east of the region on Wednesday but the day will start with some rain. Even though the steadiest rain will be gone in the afternoon, there might be some spotty mist or drizzle.8AWEDSCooler and less humid Wednesday. Highs around 60 or so. A real chill in the air.Rain totals over the next couple of days will likely average 0.75"-1".SREFThere might be some higher totals south and east of Youngstown, as shown in the NWS forecast:nwsrainTHURSDAY, OCTOBER 1: The best day of the week and it will certainly feel Autumnal with highs again around 60 or so.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: If you have been following me on social media over the last couple of days, I have been talking about the very challenging forecast for Friday and the weekend. The picture is a bit clearer today. Odds now favor a decent Friday with the rain staying east.FRIBut....Saturday is looking worse. Models are in better agreement today that moisture will push in from the East as a strong low pressure system impacts the East Coast.SATSunday will bring a chance for showers and I will look at Sunday more carefully later today.

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!Breaking news! It rained last night and will rain some more this week!45aSome places picked up a tenth of an inch or so last night:DMARainExpect a few more bouts of light rain or drizzle today, especially through midday. 15 hour futurecast:hrrr_2015092810_ref_clevelandHighs today will be on the mild side.ndfd_t2max_cleveland_1TUESDAY: A cold front will slide into the region and there can be showers just about anytime. Outside chance for thunder as well. It will also be the last warmer-than-average day of the week.tuesWEDNESDAY: This is where the forecast starts to get tricky. The GFS (shown below) would have you believe the front will be a "clean sweep", pushing east of the region and taking the rain away. The European, NAM and Canadian models form a wave of low pressure on the front earlier, slowing it down and keeping the moisture around for much of Wednesday....especially south and east of Youngstown.wedsI lean in the slower direction and think we might need to allow for a little rain Wednesday.REST OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND: Confidence is lower than average for this time frame as the models are all over the place. On the table:1) A dry period Thursday through Sunday.2) Lingering showers Thursday and Friday....perhaps into Saturday morning.3) High temperatures that could range from 55-65, depending on if the clouds and moisture linger. Stay tuned.LONG RANGE: A cool-ish pattern looks to settle in but these temperatures are actually pretty close to average for the first half of October.16daygfs

FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)TGIF! Today will not be as "pristine" looking as the last few days but it will still be a nice one with sunshine and a veil of high cirrus clouds.irFRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Looking good this evening with mild temperatures. Next week is likely to be the first "chilly" Friday night of the season.footballSATURDAY: A thicker overcast is likely so any sunshine will be pretty dim, especially as you head south through the viewing area. It may "look" like rain but it will be a dry day.sathighsSUNDAY: We added the chance for some rain to the forecast last evening for Sunday and that looks like the right call. There are still enough differences among the computer models with respect to timing and rain amounts to keep the chance in the 40% range but the chance may go up as new information becomes available today. A couple of models for Sunday morning:gfssunamnamsunamRainfall totals will probably be under a quarter of an inch with the lowest totals north and highest south.rainLUNAR ECLIPSE: Well things are not looking great for viewing the total lunar eclipse Sunday evening. We may get lucky and see some thinning of the clouds (especially west of Youngstown) but I am not real optimistic at this point.nam_cloud_total_ne_25 gfs_total_cloud_ma_12You can find more information on the eclipse in THIS blog post from a few days ago.NEXT WEEK: A warm up is coming for early in the week before a cold front arrives during midweek. Some chilly nights and seasonable days behind that front.KYNG_2015092500_min_max_16

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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(Click images to enlarge)Good morning!More sunny and warm weather today....what a shock!day1The weather is great but of course we need rain. The latest drought monitor shows a growing area of "abnormally dry" conditions:DROUGHTFRIDAY/WEEKEND:The forecast remains a dry one although I think there will be more clouds. The system that will bring blustery and rainy weather to the Carolinas and parts of the mid-Atlantic region will spread rain perhaps as far north as I-70 Saturday:SATThe latest European model actually bring showers into the Valley Sunday. Not ready to bite on that yet but it certainly is worth watching.ECLIPSE: Have a look at this video that I posted last evening: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1sUdsNA3j8Latest models are showing at least SOME clouds Sunday evening. Worst case scenario of a thick overcast is on the table but perhaps not the most likely situation yet.gfs_total_cloud_ma_16WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: This evening's video will take a more in-depth look at the weekend and the forecast challenged for next week.

SEPTEMBER 22 WEATHER BRIEFING

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Happy last full day of Summer! Autumn begins tomorrow morning at 4:21/4:22am (depending on your source, haha).Fall-EquinoxImage from AccuWeather.comDespite the pattern being a warm one overall, the temperature map this morning shows a large pocket of cool, crisp air across the region.8ATEMPSOn this final day of Summer, expect another nice one with just some fair-weather clouds mixing with the sun. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.TUEHIGHSAs you are probably know, we are in a very dry stretch of weather that will continue through at least the upcoming weekend. The latest GFS model has only a small of amount of rain here next week, giving us a 10-day  rain total of maybe a 1/10 of an inch.10DAYRAINThe Autumn season is likely to be a warm one overall and the next couple of weeks will be no exception. The 8-16 day outlook shows a warm period to start October.816LUNAR ECLIPSE:Don't forget, TOTAL lunar eclipse this coming Sunday evening. Read about it on this blog post from last night.

BLOG: TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE SUNDAY NIGHT

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(Click images to enlarge)We have quite a cool event coming up the evening of Sunday, September 27. A TOTAL lunar eclipse will be visible in our part of the world (weather permitting of course).Reminder: A lunar eclipse  occurs when the moon passes directly through the Earth’s shadow.2000px-Geometry_of_a_Lunar_Eclipse.svgA lunar eclipse is awesome enough but this eclipse will also occur during the lunar perigee (the point in the Moon's orbit wen it is closest to Earth). Yes it will be a "Supermoon". The last time a total lunar eclipse happened during a "Supermoon" was in 1982.Information from NOAA:supermoon-540x450The total eclipse will be visible from the eastern US and all of South America across the Atlantic to parts of Europe and Africa.2015-09-21_10-15-20WHEN TO LOOK: detailsWILL THE WEATHER COOPERATE?At this early stage of the game, it's kind of a tossup. It won't rain but there might be some clouds coming off a system along the East Coast. Stay tuned for the latest forecasts!gfs_total_cloud_ma_27

WEATHER BRIEFING SEPTEMBER 21

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(Click images to enlarge)Good Monday morning!After another soggy (at times) Saturday, Sunday turned out to be a pleasant day and this is going to be another great week. The pattern (dry with warm afternoons) will be just about perfect for harvest time.Today's highs will fall just shy of average....pretty close to yesterday's values.day1This week will be dominated by high pressure. The air will be dry, allowing for cool, comfortable nights and warm afternoons. Of course, we need more rain. Some places have had about 1/2 their average rain over the last 2 months:60DAYSBut there will not be a drop through the weekend. Look at the large chunk of real estate that will be high and dry over the next 7 days:7DAYQPFHere's a look at the temperature trend off the GFS ensemble model. No signs of Autumn here!DAY16Autumn officially begins in the predawn hours Wednesday. This is one of the two times during the year that the Sun's rays are aimed directly over the Equator. From Wednesday through next March, the Sun's most direct energy will be pointed south of the Equator.....Spring and Summer for the Southern Hemisphere and Autumn and Winter for the Northern Hemisphere.september-equinox-illustration

SEPTEMBER 18 WEATHER BRIEFING

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Happy Friday!A great week of weather will continue today with a mix of sun and clouds and warm afternoon temperatures.HIGHSTODAYLooks like a warm, nice evening for high school football. Kickoff temperatures in the mid 70s.SATURDAY:If you want to do something outdoors, I think the vast majority of the region will be dry through at least 2pm. A pretty good cold front will push into the Valley around mid-afternoon and showers will become more likely. There might be a thunderstorm.5PSevere weather risk does look pretty low locally but hail and/or damaging winds can't be ruled out either. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of northern Ohio in the "marginal" risk zone for severe weather.DAY2SUNDAY: Behind the front Sunday will be a nice day but it will be much cooler. Generally 2-5 degrees below average. Great football weather!HIGHSSUNNEXT WEEK: Looks like another pretty tranquil week. Temperatures will be near or slightly below average early in the week with a mix of sun and clouds. The second half of the week is looking warmer with highs in the middle and upper 70s.Have a great Friday and weekend!